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MI
mitchell_lawler
mitchell_lawler
•
2m
MI
mitchell_lawler
mitchell_lawler
•
2m
The Foxhole

The rate hike just raised the bar every company you own has to clear before spending.

📈 Gone hiking: The Fed lifted rates for the first time since 2023.
🏗️ Disciplined by default: High-return, self-funding companies trading below fair value.
🎥 Protect your portfolio: "How to protect your retirement from a 2026 recession."

The Fed just hiked for the first time in three years and signalled higher from here. The reflex is to read that as a drag on growth. But the more optimistic read, for a long-term investor, is that it raises the required return that every company has to clear before it spends a dollar. It’s now harder to justify empire-building acquisitions and vanity projects.

In effect, the Fed just imposed a layer of capital discipline across your whole portfolio. However, it only works where management is rational in their response.

Who's the best capital allocator in the market right now?

Recent contrarian ideas

M
mitchell_lawler
mitchell_lawler
•
2m

The rate hike just raised the bar every company you own has to clear before spending.

📈 Gone hiking: The Fed lifted rates for the first time since 2023.
🏗️ Disciplined by default: High-return, self-funding companies trading below fair value.
🎥 Protect your portfolio: "How to protect your retirement from a 2026 recession."

The Fed just hiked for the first time in three years and signalled higher from here. The reflex is to read that as a drag on growth. But the more optimistic read, for a long-term investor, is that it raises the required return that every company has to clear before it spends a dollar. It’s now harder to justify empire-building acquisitions and vanity projects.

In effect, the Fed just imposed a layer of capital discipline across your whole portfolio. However, it only works where management is rational in their response.

Who's the best capital allocator in the market right now?

0
M
mitchell_lawler
mitchell_lawler
•
1d

A lot of companies don't have a moat, they have customers too busy to switch. AI agents could change that.

🤖 The quick switch: Meta's AI agent found and switched insurance for a US$3,500 saving.
🏰 Price aside: 12 companies with switching costs beyond customer friction.
📈 Insurance counter: WallStreetWontons outlines how Progressive could still be undervalued.

A lot of companies look more defensive than they really are. Their actual moat isn't a better product, it's the hassle for customers to find a better deal. This friction leads to many people paying more than they need to on insurance, flights, and hotels. 

AI agents could remove that friction. One person reported to have handed over his auto policy to Meta's new agent, which proceeded to find and switch him to an alternative policy for US$3,500 cheaper in five minutes.

Which of your holdings survives once shopping around becomes effortless?

👍🧠🥱🔥🤡
15
9 comments
M
mitchell_lawler
mitchell_lawler
•
2d

Oil routes are being dismantled one by one. The durable winner could be the North American energy left standing.

🌍 Three chokepoints: Both major oil straits and the Saudi bypass are now compromised.
🛢️ Flowing freely: Undervalued North American producers that never touch a chokepoint.
⚙️ The distillate squeeze: An ETF of the companies that turn crude into diesel and jet fuel.

For the first time, the world's key oil chokepoints are all compromised at once: Hormuz throttled, the Houthis holding Bab el-Mandeb, and Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline hit. Brent is near US$110 and US diesel just topped US$6 a gallon. 

Oil (and the tankers hauling it the long way around Africa) might seem like an opportunity, but it fades the day the straits reopen. Arguably the more durable angle is based on what buyers do next… rebuilding around supply that can't be disrupted. That durable premium flows to North American oil, gas, and the refiners making the diesel that is now in short supply. 

Do you think there is a long-term energy shift taking place that makes this more than a trade?

👍🔥🤡
14
6 comments
M
mitchell_lawler
mitchell_lawler
•
3d

Three rival AI bosses just backed slowing AI down for safety. But who would a slowdown actually protect?

🧭 Where it started: Amodei's essay on why AI should "pace the frontier."
☁️ Selling the shovels: Analysts just lifted their fair value on Nebius, a pure AI-demand play.
⚡ No power, no AI: The energy and grid names powering the AI build-out.

This weekend, Anthropic's Dario Amodei proposed the AI industry deliberately slow frontier development, and within a day OpenAI's Sam Altman and Elon Musk backed the idea. Any such slowdown would likely land hardest on the challengers, potentially enabling some regulatory moat for the private labs.

Open-source models have been closing the gap and commoditizing what the frontier labs sell, and a coordinated slowdown might ease that pressure. Maybe the concern is genuine, but which companies it could change the narrative for is relevant regardless of the motive.

If open-source keeps closing the gap, which companies will actually make the money?

👍🔥
7
8 comments
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