Major Estimate Revision • Aug 02
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate increased from US$2.03 to US$2.78. Revenue forecast steady at US$3.32b. Net income forecast to grow 16% next year vs 4.6% growth forecast for Software industry in the US. Consensus price target reaffirmed at US$106. Share price was steady at US$102 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jul 27
Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$0.91 (up from US$0.51 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: US$859.5m (up 5.8% from 2Q 2021). Net income: US$115.5m (up 84% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 13% (up from 7.7% in 2Q 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 183%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 2.9%, compared to a 20% growth forecast for the industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 28% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 3% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • May 06
First quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$0.48 (down from US$0.73 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: US$825.3m (up 6.4% from 1Q 2021). Net income: US$60.2m (down 33% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 7.3% (down from 12% in 1Q 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 4.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 18%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 3.0%, compared to a 36% growth forecast for the industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 22% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 1% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 07
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate fell from US$2.10 to US$1.40 per share. Revenue forecast steady at US$3.33b. Net income forecast to shrink 30% next year vs 9.4% growth forecast for Software industry in the US . Consensus price target up from US$97.99 to US$103. Share price fell 3.0% to US$102 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 02
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: US$2.44 (down from US$4.08 in FY 2020). Revenue: US$3.22b (flat on FY 2020). Net income: US$307.5m (down 39% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 9.6% (down from 16% in FY 2020). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 28%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 3.7%, compared to a 174% growth forecast for the industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 16% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 1% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 24
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to US$97.88, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 45x. Average forward P/E is 47x in the Software industry in the US. Negligible returns to shareholders over past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at US$195 per share. Price Target Changed • Dec 17
Price target decreased to US$101 Down from US$110, the current price target is an average from 13 analysts. New target price is 19% above last closing price of US$84.72. Stock is down 35% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$1.90 for next year compared to US$4.08 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 29
Upcoming dividend of US$0.37 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 06 December 2021. Payment date: 21 December 2021. Trailing yield: 1.8%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (0.7%). Upcoming Dividend • Nov 29
Upcoming dividend of US$0.37 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 06 December 2021. Payment date: 21 December 2021. Trailing yield: 1.8%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (0.7%). Reported Earnings • Nov 07
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS US$0.41 (vs US$0.80 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a soft third quarter result with weaker earnings and profit margins, although revenues improved. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$778.4m (up 1.5% from 3Q 2020). Net income: US$51.8m (down 47% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 6.7% (down from 13% in 3Q 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 1% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Executive Departure • Oct 12
Independent Director Ajei Gopal has left the company On the 4th of October, Ajei Gopal's tenure as Independent Director ended after 4.0 years in the role. We don't have any record of a personal shareholding under Ajei's name. A total of 3 executives have left over the last 12 months. The current median tenure of the management team is 5.25 years. Executive Departure • Oct 12
CEO, President & Director David Henshall has left the company On the 6th of October, David Henshall was replaced as CEO by Robert Calderoni after 4.2 years in the role. As of June 2021, David still personally held 361.78k shares (US$42m worth at the time). A total of 3 executives have left over the last 12 months. The current median tenure of the management team is 5.25 years. Under David's leadership, the company delivered a total shareholder return of 38%. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 02
Upcoming dividend of US$0.37 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 09 September 2021. Payment date: 24 September 2021. Trailing yield: 1.4%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (3.5%). Higher than average of industry peers (0.7%). Reported Earnings • Jul 31
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS US$0.50 (vs US$0.91 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a soft second quarter result with weaker earnings and profit margins, although revenues improved. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$812.1m (up 1.6% from 2Q 2020). Net income: US$62.8m (down 44% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 7.7% (down from 14% in 2Q 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 18% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Jul 30
Price target decreased to US$126 Down from US$150, the current price target is an average from 11 analysts. New target price is 25% above last closing price of US$101. Stock is down 29% over the past year. Executive Departure • Jun 09
Independent Director Robert Daleo has left the company On the 4th of June, Robert Daleo's tenure as Independent Director ended after 8.1 years in the role. As of March 2021, Robert still personally held only 181.00 shares (US$25k worth at the time). Robert is the only executive to leave the company over the last 12 months. The current median tenure of the management team is 4.67 years. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 03
Upcoming dividend of US$0.37 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 10 June 2021. Payment date: 25 June 2021. Trailing yield: 1.3%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (3.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.0%). Reported Earnings • May 03
First quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS US$0.71 (vs US$1.45 in 1Q 2020) The company reported a poor first quarter result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$775.8m (down 9.9% from 1Q 2020). Net income: US$90.0m (down 50% from 1Q 2020). Profit margin: 12% (down from 21% in 1Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 35% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 30
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 EPS estimate fell from US$4.12 to US$3.54 per share. Revenue forecast steady at US$3.36b. Net income forecast to grow 1.7% next year vs 2.9% decline forecast for Software industry in the US. Consensus price target down from US$165 to US$159. Share price fell 8.8% to US$128 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 10
Full year 2020 earnings released The company reported a soft full year result with weaker earnings and profit margins, although revenues improved. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: US$3.24b (up 7.5% from FY 2019). Net income: US$504.4m (down 26% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 16% (down from 23% in FY 2019). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 65% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 16% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Feb 10
Revenue and earnings beat expectations Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 0.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 2.6%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 2.9%, compared to a 19% growth forecast for the Software industry in the US. Recent Insider Transactions • Feb 04
Executive VP & CFO recently sold US$90k worth of stock On the 1st of February, Arlen Shenkman sold around 673 shares on-market at roughly US$133 per share. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Arlen's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 27
New 90-day high: US$139 The company is up 21% from its price of US$115 on 28 October 2020. The American market is up 17% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Software industry, which is up 10.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$223 per share. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Jan 23
Revenue and earnings beat expectations Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 0.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 2.6%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 3.8%, compared to a 17% growth forecast for the Software industry in the US. Reported Earnings • Jan 20
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS US$4.00 The company reported a soft full year result with weaker earnings and profit margins, although revenues were improved. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: US$3.24b (up 7.5% from FY 2019). Net income: US$504.4m (down 26% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 16% (down from 23% in FY 2019). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 52% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Nov 02
Third quarter earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total profits of US$599.5m, down 6.5% from the prior year. Total revenue was US$3.24b over the last 12 months, up 7.8% from the prior year. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Nov 02
Third-quarter earnings released: Revenue and earnings beat expectations Third-quarter revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.1% at US$767.2m. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 21% at US$0.78. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.9% over the next year, compared to a 17% growth forecast for the Software industry in the US. Reported Earnings • Oct 25
Third quarter earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total profits of US$599.5m, down 6.5% from the prior year. Total revenue was US$3.24b over the last 12 months, up 7.8% from the prior year. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Oct 25
Third-quarter earnings released: Revenue and earnings beat expectations Third-quarter revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.1% at US$767.2m. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 21% at US$0.78. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.8% over the next year, compared to a 17% growth forecast for the Software industry in the US. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 23
New 90-day low: US$127 The company is down 11% from its price of US$142 on 24 July 2020. The American market is up 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Software industry, which is up 13% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$168 per share.