New Risk • Jun 08
New major risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 61% This is considered a major risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (61% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.2% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.0% net profit margin). Market cap is less than US$100m (JP¥14.7b market cap, or US$91.6m). Duyuru • Jun 05
Headwaters Co.,Ltd Revises Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2026 Headwaters Co.,Ltd revised consolidated earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. For the period, the company expects net sales of JPY 8,555 million, operating profit of JPY 753 million, profit attributable to owners of parent of JPY 391 million and basic earnings per share of JPY 101.66. Duyuru • Jun 01
Headwaters Co.,Ltd to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Aug 14, 2026 Headwaters Co.,Ltd announced that they will report Q2, 2026 results on Aug 14, 2026 Reported Earnings • May 20
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥3.12 (vs JP¥5.43 loss in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥3.12 (up from JP¥5.43 loss in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥1.26b (up 71% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥12.0m (up JP¥32.6m from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 1.0% (up from net loss in 1Q 2025). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 1% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 23% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • Apr 03
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 31% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.9% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (1.5% net profit margin). Market cap is less than US$100m (JP¥8.71b market cap, or US$54.6m). Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Full year 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥15.23 (vs JP¥71.81 in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥15.23 (down from JP¥71.81 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥3.90b (up 34% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥58.0m (down 79% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 1.5% (down from 9.4% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 12% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 18% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Duyuru • Feb 13
Headwaters Co.,Ltd, Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2026 Headwaters Co.,Ltd, Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2026. New Risk • Jan 27
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 8.0% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (8.0% average weekly change). Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (JP¥10.9b market cap, or US$70.8m). Duyuru • Jan 27
Headwaters Co.,Ltd (TSE:4011) entered into a merger agreement to acquire remaining 73.87% stake in BBD Initiative Inc. (TSE:5259) for ¥7.9 billion. Headwaters Co.,Ltd (TSE:4011) entered into a merger agreement to acquire remaining 73.87% stake in BBD Initiative Inc. (TSE:5259) for ¥7.9 billion on January 26, 2026. The consideration consists of 2.26 million common equity of Headwaters Co.,Ltd to be issued for common equity of BBD Initiative Inc. As part of consideration, 0.50 Headwaters shares will be allocated and delivered for each BBD Initiative share. Upon completion, Headwaters Co.,Ltd will own 100% stake in BBD Initiative Inc.
The transaction is subject to approval of offer by acquirer shareholders and approval of offer by target shareholders. The expected completion of the transaction is May 1, 2026. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 27
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 19% After last week's 19% share price decline to JP¥2,817, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 63x. Average trailing P/E is 18x in the IT industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 191% over the past three years. Duyuru • Dec 03
Headwaters Co.,Ltd to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Feb 13, 2026 Headwaters Co.,Ltd announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Feb 13, 2026 Reported Earnings • Nov 18
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥25.50 (vs JP¥11.85 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥25.50 (up from JP¥11.85 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥1.07b (up 41% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥97.0m (up 116% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 9.1% (up from 6.0% in 3Q 2024). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 24% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 48% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Duyuru • Sep 02
Headwaters Co.,Ltd to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Nov 14, 2025 Headwaters Co.,Ltd announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Nov 14, 2025 Duyuru • Aug 28
Headwaters Co.,Ltd (TSE:4011) completed the acquisition of to acquire 26.1% stake in BBD Initiative Inc. (TSE:5259) from Tatsuro Kiyohara. Headwaters Co.,Ltd (TSE:4011) entered into agreement to acquire 26.1% stake in BBD Initiative Inc. (TSE:5259) from Tatsuro Kiyohara on August 14, 2025.
The expected completion of the transaction is August 29, 2025.
Headwaters Co.,Ltd (TSE:4011) completed the acquisition of to acquire 26.1% stake in BBD Initiative Inc. (TSE:5259) from Tatsuro Kiyohara August 27, 2025. Reported Earnings • Aug 16
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: JP¥8.26 loss per share (vs JP¥2.90 profit in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: JP¥8.26 loss per share (down from JP¥2.90 profit in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥897.8m (up 44% from 2Q 2024). Net loss: JP¥31.4m (down 385% from profit in 2Q 2024). Duyuru • Aug 14
Headwaters Co.,Ltd (TSE:4011) entered into agreement to acquire 26.12% stake in BBD Initiative Inc. (TSE:5259) from Tatsuro Kiyohara. Headwaters Co.,Ltd (TSE:4011) entered into agreement to acquire 26.12% stake in BBD Initiative Inc. (TSE:5259) from Tatsuro Kiyohara on August 14, 2025.
The expected completion of the transaction is August 29, 2025. Duyuru • Jun 03
Headwaters Co.,Ltd to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Aug 14, 2025 Headwaters Co.,Ltd announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Aug 14, 2025 Reported Earnings • May 21
First quarter 2025 earnings released: JP¥5.27 loss per share (vs JP¥23.65 profit in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: JP¥5.27 loss per share (down from JP¥23.65 profit in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥739.0m (up 4.4% from 1Q 2024). Net loss: JP¥20.0m (down 123% from profit in 1Q 2024). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 04
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 20% After last week's 20% share price decline to JP¥3,405, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 47.5x. Average trailing P/E is 16x in the IT industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 257% over the past three years. New Risk • Mar 12
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: JP¥14.7b (US$98.9m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk High level of non-cash earnings (63% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.3% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (JP¥14.7b market cap, or US$98.9m). Duyuru • Mar 07
Headwaters Co.,Ltd Provides Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2025 Headwaters Co.,Ltd provided consolidated earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. For the period, the company expects net sales of JPY 4,007 million, operating profit of JPY 328 million, profit attributable to owners of parent of JPY 237 million and basic earnings per share of JPY 62.57. Duyuru • Mar 01
Headwaters Co.,Ltd to Report Q1, 2025 Results on May 15, 2025 Headwaters Co.,Ltd announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on May 15, 2025 Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Full year 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥144 (vs JP¥18.67 in FY 2023) Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥144 (up from JP¥18.67 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥2.91b (up 26% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥272.0m (up 289% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 9.4% (up from 3.0% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Duyuru • Feb 14
Headwaters Co.,Ltd, Annual General Meeting, Mar 28, 2025 Headwaters Co.,Ltd, Annual General Meeting, Mar 28, 2025. Duyuru • Jan 03
Headwaters Co.,Ltd to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Feb 14, 2025 Headwaters Co.,Ltd announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Feb 14, 2025 Duyuru • Dec 03
Headwaters Co.,Ltd Provides Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2024 Headwaters Co.,Ltd provided consolidated earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024. For the period, the company expects net sales of JPY 2,928 million, operating profit of JPY 293 million, profit attributable to owners of parent of JPY 206 million and basic earnings per share of JPY 108.83. New Risk • Nov 29
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 8.4% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (8.4% average weekly change). Minor Risk Less than 3 years of financial data is available. Duyuru • Aug 30
Headwaters Co.,Ltd Provides Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2024 Headwaters Co.,Ltd provided consolidated earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024. For the period, the company expects net sales of JPY 2,928 million, operating profit of JPY 226 million, profit attributable to owners of parent of JPY 156 million and basic earnings per share of JPY 82.78. Duyuru • Aug 28
Headwaters Co.,Ltd to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Nov 14, 2024 Headwaters Co.,Ltd announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Nov 14, 2024 Reported Earnings • Aug 19
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥5.80 (vs JP¥5.34 loss in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥5.80 (up from JP¥5.34 loss in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥624.0m (up 12% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥11.0m (up JP¥21.0m from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.8% (up from net loss in 2Q 2023). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Duyuru • Jun 08
Headwaters Co.,Ltd to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Aug 14, 2024 Headwaters Co.,Ltd announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Aug 14, 2024 Duyuru • May 31
Headwaters Co.,Ltd Provides Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2024 Headwaters Co.,Ltd provided consolidated earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024. For the period, the company expects net sales of JPY 2,928 million, operating profit of JPY 226 million, profit attributable to owners of parent of JPY 156 million and basic earnings per share of JPY 82.62. Reported Earnings • May 19
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥47.31 (vs JP¥21.36 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥47.31 (up from JP¥21.36 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥708.0m (up 17% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥89.0m (up 123% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 13% (up from 6.6% in 1Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Duyuru • Mar 01
Headwaters Co.,Ltd Provides Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2024 Headwaters Co.,Ltd provided consolidated earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024. For the period, the company expects net sales of JPY 2,928 million, operating profit of JPY 226 million, profit attributable to owners of parent of JPY 156 million and basic earnings per share of JPY 83.34. Duyuru • Feb 29
Headwaters Co.,Ltd to Report Q1, 2024 Results on May 15, 2024 Headwaters Co.,Ltd announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on May 15, 2024 Reported Earnings • Feb 20
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥37.34 (vs JP¥40.06 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥37.34 (down from JP¥40.06 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥2.32b (up 47% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥70.0m (down 6.7% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 3.0% (down from 4.8% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Duyuru • Feb 16
Headwaters Co.,Ltd, Annual General Meeting, Mar 29, 2024 Headwaters Co.,Ltd, Annual General Meeting, Mar 29, 2024. Duyuru • Dec 05
Headwaters Co.,Ltd to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Feb 14, 2024 Headwaters Co.,Ltd announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Feb 14, 2024 Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥12.26 (vs JP¥34.18 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥12.26 (down from JP¥34.18 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥628.0m (up 24% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥23.0m (down 64% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 3.7% (down from 13% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the IT industry in Japan. Duyuru • Sep 28
Headwaters Co.,Ltd to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 14, 2023 Headwaters Co.,Ltd announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Nov 14, 2023 New Risk • Aug 17
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: JP¥12.5b (US$85.6m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (16% average weekly change). Minor Risks Less than 3 years of financial data is available. Market cap is less than US$100m (JP¥12.5b market cap, or US$85.6m). Reported Earnings • Aug 16
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: JP¥40,323 loss per share (vs JP¥34.18 profit in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: JP¥40,323 loss per share (down from JP¥34.18 profit in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥555.0m (up 9.5% from 2Q 2022). Net loss: JP¥10.0m (down 116% from profit in 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.0% growth forecast for the IT industry in Japan. Duyuru • May 31
Headwaters Co.,Ltd to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 14, 2023 Headwaters Co.,Ltd announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results on Aug 14, 2023 Duyuru • Dec 06
Headwaters Co.,Ltd to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Feb 14, 2023 Headwaters Co.,Ltd announced that they will report fiscal year 2022 results on Feb 14, 2023 Board Change • Nov 16
No independent directors Following the recent departure of a director, there are no independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: No independent directors. 4 non-independent directors. International Business Promotion Division Manager and Director Naoki Ishizawa was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2015. The company's lack of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Duyuru • Aug 31
Headwaters Co.,Ltd to Report Q3, 2022 Results on Nov 14, 2022 Headwaters Co.,Ltd announced that they will report Q3, 2022 results on Nov 14, 2022 Duyuru • Jun 01
Headwaters Co.,Ltd to Report Q2, 2022 Results on Aug 12, 2022 Headwaters Co.,Ltd announced that they will report Q2, 2022 results on Aug 12, 2022 Board Change • Apr 27
No independent directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 4 experienced directors. 1 highly experienced director. No independent directors (4 non-independent directors). International Business Promotion Division Manager and Director Naoki Ishizawa was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2015. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Duyuru • Apr 08
Headwaters Co.,Ltd to Report Q1, 2022 Results on May 13, 2022 Headwaters Co.,Ltd announced that they will report Q1, 2022 results on May 13, 2022 Reported Earnings • Feb 20
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: JP¥29.10 (down from JP¥180 in FY 2020). Revenue: JP¥1.17b (up 1.6% from FY 2020). Net income: JP¥27.0m (down 82% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 2.3% (down from 13% in FY 2020). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Duyuru • Feb 17
Headwaters Co.,Ltd, Annual General Meeting, Mar 29, 2022 Headwaters Co.,Ltd, Annual General Meeting, Mar 29, 2022. Buying Opportunity • Feb 08
Now 24% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 46%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥4,313, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 6.4% per annum over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has been flat over the last 3 years. Buying Opportunity • Jan 24
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 54%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥4,290, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 6.4% per annum over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has been flat over the last 3 years. Reported Earnings • Nov 15
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS JP¥16.15 (vs JP¥27.08 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a soft third quarter result with weaker earnings and profit margins, although revenues improved. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: JP¥296.0m (up 12% from 3Q 2020). Net income: JP¥15.0m (down 40% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 5.1% (down from 9.5% in 3Q 2020). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 03
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 18% share price gain to JP¥7,060, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 56.6x. Average trailing P/E is 22x in the IT industry in Japan. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 16
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 24% share price decline to JP¥5,630, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 45.1x. Average trailing P/E is 22x in the IT industry in Japan. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 17
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 24% share price decline to JP¥10,890, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 60.4x. Average trailing P/E is 25x in the IT industry in Japan. Reported Earnings • Apr 04
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS JP¥180 (vs JP¥122 in FY 2019) The company reported a strong full year result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: JP¥1.15b (up 8.1% from FY 2019). Net income: JP¥153.0m (up 53% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 13% (up from 9.4% in FY 2019). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Reported Earnings • Feb 14
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS JP¥180 (vs JP¥122 in FY 2019) The company reported a strong full year result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: JP¥1.15b (up 8.1% from FY 2019). Net income: JP¥153.0m (up 53% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 13% (up from 9.4% in FY 2019). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 26
New 90-day high: JP¥21,480 The company is up 15% from its price of JP¥18,600 on 28 October 2020. The Japanese market is also up 15% over the last 90 days, indicating the company’s price trend is similar to the market over that time. However, it outperformed the IT industry, which is up 12% over the same period.