Duyuru • Aug 21
Alexandria Mineral Oils Company, Annual General Meeting, Sep 27, 2025 Alexandria Mineral Oils Company, Annual General Meeting, Sep 27, 2025, at 10:00 Egypt Standard Time. Location: alexandarie Egypt New Risk • Oct 15
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.5% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.5% per year for the foreseeable future. High level of non-cash earnings (69% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (239% cash payout ratio). Upcoming Dividend • Oct 03
Upcoming dividend of ج.م0.75 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 10 October 2024. Payment date: 12 February 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 60% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 7.1%. Within top quartile of Egyptian dividend payers (5.9%). Higher than average of industry peers (6.2%). Duyuru • Aug 28
Alexandria Mineral Oils Company, Annual General Meeting, Sep 21, 2024 Alexandria Mineral Oils Company, Annual General Meeting, Sep 21, 2024, at 11:00 Egypt Standard Time. Location: alexandarie Egypt Reported Earnings • Aug 20
Full year 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: Revenue: ج.م33.8b (up 40% from FY 2023). Net income: ج.م1.70b (up 43% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 5.0% (up from 4.9% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.3%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 17% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Egypt. New Risk • Jun 08
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Egyptian stocks, typically moving 9.6% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (9.6% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (4.1% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Jun 05
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ج.م0.35 (vs ج.م0.28 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: ج.م0.35 (up from ج.م0.28 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: ج.م8.47b (up 21% from 3Q 2023). Net income: ج.م460.4m (up 26% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 5.4% (up from 5.2% in 3Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 16% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Egypt. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 37% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 46% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 19
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20% After last week's 20% share price gain to ج.م8.20, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Chemicals industry in Egypt. Total returns to shareholders of 231% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ج.م6.51 per share. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 19
Now 26% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 18% to ج.م8.20. The fair value is estimated to be ج.م6.51, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 40% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 9.1% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 17% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 04
Now 21% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 21% to ج.م7.95. The fair value is estimated to be ج.م6.57, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 40% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 9.1% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 17% per annum over the same time period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 17
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to ج.م7.84, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Chemicals industry in Egypt. Total returns to shareholders of 246% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ج.م6.60 per share. Reported Earnings • Feb 17
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ج.م0.41 (vs ج.م0.44 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: ج.م0.41 (down from ج.م0.44 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: ج.م7.23b (up 49% from 2Q 2023). Net income: ج.م530.9m (down 7.0% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 7.3% (down from 12% in 2Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.4% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Egypt. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 57% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 46% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 29
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 17% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from ج.م32.2b to ج.م32.6b. EPS estimate increased from ج.م1.27 to ج.م1.49 per share. Net income forecast to grow 83% next year vs 24% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Egypt. Consensus price target up from ج.م8.83 to ج.م9.62. Share price was steady at ج.م10.25 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ج.م0.32 (vs ج.م0.24 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: ج.م0.32 (up from ج.م0.24 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: ج.م7.05b (up 20% from 1Q 2023). Net income: ج.م411.9m (up 32% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 5.8% (up from 5.3% in 1Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.3% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Egypt. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 75% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 58% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Oct 30
Upcoming dividend of ج.م0.65 per share at 2.1% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 06 November 2023. Payment date: 07 March 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 20% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.1%. Lower than top quartile of Egyptian dividend payers (7.2%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.9%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 18
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to ج.م10.26, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Chemicals industry in Egypt. Total returns to shareholders of 389% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ج.م7.03 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 13
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 11%, EPS downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast increased from ج.م29.0b to ج.م32.1b. EPS estimate fell from ج.م1.52 to ج.م1.18. Net income forecast to grow 43% next year vs 7.1% decline forecast for Chemicals industry in Egypt. Consensus price target of ج.م9.12 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 6.2% to ج.م8.90 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Sep 09
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: ج.م0.74 (down from ج.م0.83 in FY 2022). Revenue: ج.م23.9b (up 30% from FY 2022). Net income: ج.م1.07b (flat on FY 2022). Profit margin: 4.5% (down from 5.8% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 43%. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.5% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Egypt. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 87% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 48% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Sep 07
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.2% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.2% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 27
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to ج.م8.36, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 5x in the Chemicals industry in Egypt. Total returns to shareholders of 381% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ج.م6.48 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 19
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 44% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from ج.م25.0b to ج.م26.9b. EPS estimate increased from ج.م1.22 to ج.م1.76 per share. Net income forecast to grow 24% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Egypt. Consensus price target up from ج.م7.02 to ج.م8.17. Share price rose 9.2% to ج.م8.64 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 14
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ج.م0.42 (vs ج.م0.14 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: ج.م0.42 (up from ج.م0.14 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: ج.م4.85b (up 41% from 2Q 2022). Net income: ج.م672.3m (up 199% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 14% (up from 6.5% in 2Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.7% decline forecast for the Chemicals industry in Egypt. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 93% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 35% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 01
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 18% share price gain to ج.م5.09, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 4x. Average forward P/E is 5x in the Chemicals industry in Egypt. Total returns to shareholders of 58% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 24
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 58% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from ج.م27.3b to ج.م25.8b. EPS estimate also fell from ج.م2.92 per share to ج.م1.24 per share. Net income forecast to grow 51% next year vs 37% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Egypt. Consensus price target of ج.م6.33 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at ج.م4.22 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target increased to ج.م6.33 Up from ج.م5.37, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 58% above last closing price of ج.م4.01. Stock is up 6.6% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ج.م2.92 for next year compared to ج.م0.83 last year. Board Change • Nov 16
No independent directors There are 8 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, none were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: No independent directors. 11 non-independent directors. MD & Chairman of the Board Amr Morsi was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Upcoming Dividend • Oct 11
Upcoming dividend of ج.م0.55 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 18 October 2022. Payment date: 22 February 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 18% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 5.9%. Lower than top quartile of Egyptian dividend payers (10%). Lower than average of industry peers (8.8%). Major Estimate Revision • Sep 05
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 11% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from ج.م24.6b to ج.م27.3b. EPS estimate increased from ج.م1.14 to ج.م2.92 per share. Net income forecast to grow 202% next year vs 22% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Egypt. Consensus price target of ج.م5.07 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at ج.م4.04 over the past week. Buying Opportunity • Jun 14
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 4.5%. The fair value is estimated to be ج.م4.56, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 5.8% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 1.3% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to decline by 0.3% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • May 30
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast increased from ج.م14.2b to ج.م18.7b. EPS estimate unchanged from ج.م0.80 at last update. Chemicals industry in Egypt expected to see average net income growth of 35% next year. Consensus price target of ج.م4.73 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 4.6% to ج.م3.54 over the past week. Buying Opportunity • May 25
Now 22% undervalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days. The fair value is estimated to be ج.م4.51, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 5.8% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 1.9% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to decline by 1.8% per annum over the same time period. Board Change • Apr 27
No independent directors There are 8 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, none were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: No independent directors. 11 non-independent directors. Non-Executive Director Mohamed Fayad was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Buying Opportunity • Apr 14
Now 25% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 18%. The fair value is estimated to be ج.م4.36, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 15% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 0.7% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to decline by 0.1% per annum over the same time period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 22
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 18% share price gain to ج.م4.28, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Chemicals industry in Egypt. Total loss to shareholders of 19% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ج.م4.38 per share. Price Target Changed • Jan 17
Price target decreased to ج.م4.78 Down from ج.م5.37, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 17% above last closing price of ج.م4.10. Stock is up 26% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ج.م0.47 for next year compared to ج.م0.33 last year. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target increased to ج.م5.37 Up from ج.م4.78, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 46% above last closing price of ج.م3.67. Stock is up 42% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ج.م0.57 for next year compared to ج.م0.33 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Oct 12
Upcoming dividend of ج.م0.15 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 19 October 2021. Payment date: 21 October 2021. Trailing yield: 3.8%. Lower than top quartile of Egyptian dividend payers (7.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (5.1%). Reported Earnings • Feb 08
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: ج.م0.01 loss per share (vs ج.م0.049 profit in 2Q 2020) The company reported a poor second quarter result with weaker earnings, revenues and control over costs. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ج.م2.25b (down 1.9% from 2Q 2020). Net loss: ج.م13.4m (down 121% from profit in 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 95% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 29% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Feb 08
Earnings beat expectations, revenue disappoints Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 27%, compared to a 39% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Egypt. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 08
New 90-day high: ج.م3.04 The company is up 18% from its price of ج.م2.58 on 09 September 2020. The Egyptian market is up 7.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Chemicals industry, which is up 12% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ج.م0.82 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 01
New 90-day low: ج.م2.33 The company is down 3.0% from its price of ج.م2.41 on 29 July 2020. The Egyptian market is up 5.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Chemicals industry, which is up 7.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ج.م0.85 per share.