New Risk • May 13
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 4.5% Last year net profit margin: 7.4% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (4.5% net profit margin). Price Target Changed • Apr 26
Price target increased by 7.5% to ₺309 Up from ₺287, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 11% above last closing price of ₺278. Stock is up 110% over the past year. Price Target Changed • Apr 17
Price target increased by 10.0% to ₺300 Up from ₺272, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 11% above last closing price of ₺269. Stock is up 109% over the past year. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 07
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 45% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast increased from ₺99.2b to ₺143.8b. EPS estimate unchanged from ₺29.10 at last update. Gas Utilities industry in Turkey expected to see average net income growth of 8.4% next year. Consensus price target up from ₺272 to ₺287. Share price rose 12% to ₺260 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 09
Upcoming dividend of ₺12.55 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 16 March 2026. Payment date: 18 March 2026. Payout ratio is on the higher end at 89%, and the cash payout ratio is above 100%. Trailing yield: 5.0%. Within top quartile of Turkish dividend payers (3.0%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.4%). Tillkännagivande • Feb 17
Aygaz A.S. announces Annual dividend, payable on March 18, 2026 Aygaz A.S. announced Annual dividend of TRY 12.5500 per share payable on March 18, 2026, ex-date on March 16, 2026 and record date on March 17, 2026. Tillkännagivande • Feb 16
Aygaz A.S., Annual General Meeting, Mar 11, 2026 Aygaz A.S., Annual General Meeting, Mar 11, 2026. Location: buyukdere caddesi, no:145/1 zincirlikuyu sisli, istanbul Turkey Reported Earnings • Feb 15
Full year 2025 earnings released Full year 2025 results: Revenue: ₺89.7b (up 9.6% from FY 2024). Net income: ₺5.00b (up 135% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 5.6% (up from 2.6% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 07
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 37%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 revenue forecast fell from ₺88.7b to ₺86.5b. EPS estimate rose from ₺14.09 to ₺19.30. Net income forecast to grow 75% next year vs 7.6% growth forecast for Gas Utilities industry in Turkey. Consensus price target up from ₺225 to ₺247. Share price rose 2.8% to ₺203 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 03
Third quarter 2025 earnings released Third quarter 2025 results: Revenue: ₺64.8b (up 222% from 3Q 2024). Net income: ₺2.75b (up 163% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.2% (down from 5.2% in 3Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.0% growth forecast for the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Price Target Changed • Nov 02
Price target increased by 13% to ₺242 Up from ₺215, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 23% above last closing price of ₺198. Stock is up 31% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ₺14.09 for next year compared to ₺9.66 last year. Price Target Changed • Sep 10
Price target increased by 7.3% to ₺209 Up from ₺195, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 25% above last closing price of ₺168. Stock is up 16% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ₺12.00 for next year compared to ₺9.66 last year. Price Target Changed • Jul 20
Price target decreased by 10% to ₺195 Down from ₺217, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 31% above last closing price of ₺149. Stock is down 13% over the past year. The company posted earnings per share of ₺9.66 last year. New Risk • Apr 22
New major risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 130% The company is paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Dividend yield: 9.6% This is considered a major risk. Companies that pay out too much of their earnings and cash flows are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If earnings or cash flows stagnate or fall, then there may not be enough to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to dig into capital reserves or take on debt to maintain the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 130% Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Minor Risk Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.6% net profit margin). Upcoming Dividend • Mar 26
Upcoming dividend of ₺12.55 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 02 April 2025. Payment date: 04 April 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 33% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 4.3%. Within top quartile of Turkish dividend payers (3.0%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.7%). Declared Dividend • Mar 06
Dividend increased to ₺12.55 Dividend of ₺12.55 is 83% higher than last year. Ex-date: 2nd April 2025 Payment date: 4th April 2025 Dividend yield will be 7.9%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (33% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 78% per year over the past 4 years and payments have been stable during that time. EPS is expected to remain steady over the next year, which should provide adequate earnings cover for the dividend. Reported Earnings • Feb 18
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: ₺9.66 (down from ₺27.09 in FY 2023). Revenue: ₺81.8b (up 26% from FY 2023). Net income: ₺2.12b (down 64% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 2.6% (down from 9.2% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 7.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 2.7%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 28% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 65% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Tillkännagivande • Jan 26
Aygaz A.S. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Feb 17, 2025 Aygaz A.S. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Feb 17, 2025 New Risk • Nov 26
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 12% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 12% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (104% cash payout ratio). Reported Earnings • Nov 06
Third quarter 2024 earnings released Third quarter 2024 results: Revenue: ₺20.1b (up 41% from 3Q 2023). Net income: ₺1.05b (down 57% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 5.2% (down from 17% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 17% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 2.8% growth forecast for the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 59% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 81% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. New Risk • Aug 12
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The company has an unstable dividend paying track record. The dividend has had an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Dividend yield: 4.5% This is considered a minor risk. If the company has cut or reduced its dividend in the past, it may be a sign that the underlying business is too cyclical to consistently maintain or grow the dividend over the long-term. It may also indicate the company prioritizes other outcomes instead of maintaining the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.4% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Reported Earnings • Aug 06
Second quarter 2024 earnings released Second quarter 2024 results: Revenue: ₺17.6b (up 82% from 2Q 2023). Net income: ₺256.8m (down 65% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.5% (down from 7.5% in 2Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 16% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 2.6% growth forecast for the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 76% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 99% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Jun 09
Price target increased by 7.1% to ₺207 Up from ₺193, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 18% above last closing price of ₺175. Stock is up 107% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ₺21.12 for next year compared to ₺27.09 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 29
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to ₺186, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 1,783% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ₺78.71 per share. Reported Earnings • May 23
First quarter 2024 earnings released: ₺0.018 loss per share (vs ₺3.13 profit in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: ₺0.018 loss per share (down from ₺3.13 profit in 1Q 2023). Revenue: ₺15.8b (up 27% from 1Q 2023). Net loss: ₺3.99m (down 101% from profit in 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 0% (down from 5.5% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 21% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 2.9% growth forecast for the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 76% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 120% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Tillkännagivande • Apr 03
Aygaz A.S., Annual General Meeting, Apr 01, 2024 Aygaz A.S., Annual General Meeting, Apr 01, 2024, at 12:00 Coordinated Universal Time. Location: Büyükdere Caddesi, No:145/1 Zincirlikuyu Istanbul Turkey Agenda: To consider Opening and election of the Chairman of the Meeting; to consider Reading, discussing and approving the 2023 Annual Report prepared by the Board of Directors; to consider Reading the summary of Independent Audit Report Summary for 2023 accounting period; to consider Acquittal of each member of the Board of Directors in relation to the activities of Company in 2023; to consider Acceptance, acceptance after amendment or refusal of the proposal of the Board of Directors in accordance with the Company's profit distribution policy regarding the distribution of the profits of 2023 and the date of the distribution of profits; to consider Determining the number and duty term of the Members of the Board of Directors, making elections in accordance with the determined number of members, selecting the Independent Members of the Board of Directors; to consider Determining the annual gross salaries of the members of the Board of Directors; and to consider other matters. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 28
Upcoming dividend of ₺6.85 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 04 April 2024. Payment date: 08 April 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 25% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.6%. Within top quartile of Turkish dividend payers (2.0%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.6%). Reported Earnings • Mar 06
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: ₺27.09 (vs ₺17.32 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: ₺27.09 (up from ₺17.32 in FY 2022). Revenue: ₺64.8b (up 73% from FY 2022). Net income: ₺5.95b (up 26% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 9.2% (down from 13% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 15% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 3.6% growth forecast for the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 90% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 87% per year. New Risk • Feb 26
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 8.0% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 8.0% per year for the foreseeable future. High level of non-cash earnings (54% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Price Target Changed • Feb 21
Price target increased by 8.6% to ₺172 Up from ₺159, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 10% above last closing price of ₺156. Stock is up 110% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ₺21.30 for next year compared to ₺17.32 last year. Tillkännagivande • Feb 07
Aygaz A.S. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Mar 04, 2024 Aygaz A.S. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Mar 04, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • Dec 26
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 46% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from ₺49.5b to ₺53.0b. EPS estimate increased from ₺14.60 to ₺21.30 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 25% next year vs 13% growth forecast for Gas Utilities industry in Turkey . Consensus price target up from ₺152 to ₺159. Share price fell 2.3% to ₺121 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 17
Price target increased by 17% to ₺152 Up from ₺131, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 16% above last closing price of ₺131. Stock is up 93% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ₺14.60 for next year compared to ₺17.32 last year. Reported Earnings • Oct 27
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ₺11.02 (vs ₺5.63 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: ₺11.02 (up from ₺5.63 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: ₺14.3b (up 36% from 3Q 2022). Net income: ₺2.42b (up 57% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 17% (up from 15% in 3Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 34% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.6% growth forecast for the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 99% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 113% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 25
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to ₺142, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 1,709% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ₺115 per share. Price Target Changed • Sep 08
Price target increased by 15% to ₺108 Up from ₺94.11, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 13% below last closing price of ₺124. Stock is up 155% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ₺15.30 for next year compared to ₺17.32 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 21
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17% After last week's 17% share price gain to ₺128, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 1,405% over the past three years. New Risk • Aug 07
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by cash flows. Cash payout ratio: 92% Dividend yield: 0.9% This is considered a minor risk. Dividends are ultimately paid out of the company's available cash reserves. Companies that pay out too much of their cash flow are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If cash flow growth slows or cash flows fall, then there may not be enough cash reserves to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to take on debt to maintain the dividend. This risk is mitigated by the fact the dividend is covered by earnings, however, cash flows are generally more important. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 5.6% per year for the foreseeable future. High level of non-cash earnings (57% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (92% cash payout ratio). Price Target Changed • Aug 01
Price target increased by 8.9% to ₺100 Up from ₺92.18, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 12% below last closing price of ₺114. Stock is up 121% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ₺11.68 for next year compared to ₺17.32 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 01
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ₺3.30 (vs ₺4.98 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: ₺3.30 (down from ₺4.98 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: ₺9.72b (up 1.7% from 2Q 2022). Net income: ₺724.4m (down 34% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 7.5% (down from 11% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 31% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.1% growth forecast for the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 109% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 88% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 25
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 17%, EPS downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from ₺45.0b to ₺52.6b. EPS estimate fell from ₺14.77 to ₺11.68. Net income forecast to shrink 42% next year vs 16% growth forecast for Gas Utilities industry in Turkey . Consensus price target up from ₺92.18 to ₺94.11. Share price rose 11% to ₺113 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 07
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to ₺107, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 1,222% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 07
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 22% After last week's 22% share price gain to ₺79.40, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 900% over the past three years. Buying Opportunity • May 22
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 20%. The fair value is estimated to be ₺75.85, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 58% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 116%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 6.4% in a year. Earnings is forecast to decline by 44% in the next year. Buying Opportunity • May 03
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 24%. The fair value is estimated to be ₺75.85, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 58% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 116%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 6.4% in a year. Earnings is forecast to decline by 44% in the next year. Reported Earnings • Apr 30
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ₺3.13 (vs ₺0.91 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: ₺3.13 (up from ₺0.91 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: ₺12.4b (up 94% from 1Q 2022). Net income: ₺687.3m (up 242% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 5.5% (up from 3.1% in 1Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.6% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 3.6% growth forecast for the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 120% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 67% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 20
Upcoming dividend of ₺1.00 per share at 1.3% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 March 2023. Payment date: 29 March 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 5.8% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 1.3%. Lower than top quartile of Turkish dividend payers (2.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.2%). Reported Earnings • Feb 11
Full year 2022 earnings released Full year 2022 results: Revenue: ₺37.5b (up 136% from FY 2021). Net income: ₺4.73b (up ₺4.06b from FY 2021). Profit margin: 13% (up from 4.2% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 08
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18% After last week's 18% share price decline to ₺67.00, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 4x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 647% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ₺75.96 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 26
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 161% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from ₺36.4b to ₺37.1b. EPS estimate increased from ₺7.48 to ₺19.52 per share. Net income forecast to grow 16% next year vs 14% growth forecast for Gas Utilities industry in Turkey. Consensus price target up from ₺55.96 to ₺78.14. Share price was steady at ₺91.00 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Jan 24
Price target increased by 21% to ₺65.84 Up from ₺54.32, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 29% below last closing price of ₺92.50. Stock is up 193% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ₺7.48 for next year compared to ₺3.05 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 18
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 20% share price gain to ₺88.00, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 22x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 810% over the past three years. Board Change • Nov 16
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 5 experienced directors. 4 highly experienced directors. Non-Executive Independent Director Kutsan Çelebican was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2018. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Nov 05
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: ₺7.00 (vs ₺1.53 in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: ₺7.00 (up from ₺1.53 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: ₺10.5b (up 121% from 3Q 2021). Net income: ₺1.54b (up 357% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 15% (up from 7.1% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 10% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 114% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 62% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 03
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to ₺64.95, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 722% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 06
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 15% share price gain to ₺51.25, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 595% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Aug 17
Second quarter 2022 earnings released Second quarter 2022 results: Revenue: ₺9.56b (up 279% from 2Q 2021). Net income: ₺1.09b (up 459% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 11% (up from 7.8% in 2Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 31%, compared to a 14% growth forecast for the Gas Utilities industry in Turkey. Price Target Changed • Jul 01
Price target increased to ₺26.26 Up from ₺23.79, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 32% below last closing price of ₺38.36. Stock is up 187% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ₺2.71 for next year compared to ₺2.23 last year. Reported Earnings • May 10
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: EPS: ₺0.67 (up from ₺0.038 loss in 1Q 2021). Revenue: ₺6.41b (up 123% from 1Q 2021). Net income: ₺200.9m (up ₺212.3m from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 3.1% (up from net loss in 1Q 2021). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 21%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 6.2%, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the industry in Turkey. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 75% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 55% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Board Change • Apr 27
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 5 experienced directors. 4 highly experienced directors. Non-Executive Independent Director Kutsan Çelebican was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2018. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Price Target Changed • Apr 18
Price target increased to ₺24.17 Up from ₺22.56, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 28% below last closing price of ₺33.54. Stock is up 152% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ₺2.71 for next year compared to ₺2.23 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 06
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 21% share price gain to ₺31.80, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 268% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ₺47.28 per share. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 30
Upcoming dividend of ₺0.50 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 06 April 2022. Payment date: 08 April 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 22% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 1.9%. Lower than top quartile of Turkish dividend payers (3.9%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.8%). Reported Earnings • Feb 18
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: ₺2.23 (up from ₺0.083 loss in FY 2020). Revenue: ₺15.9b (up 57% from FY 2020). Net income: ₺670.1m (up ₺695.0m from FY 2020). Profit margin: 4.2% (up from net loss in FY 2020). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 21%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 34%, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the industry in Turkey. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 50% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 32% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 10
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to ₺27.50, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 202% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Jan 18
Price target increased to ₺19.46 Up from ₺16.83, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 19% below last closing price of ₺24.10. Stock is up 35% over the past year. The company posted a net loss per share of ₺0.083 last year. Price Target Changed • Dec 29
Price target increased to ₺17.75 Up from ₺15.84, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 17% below last closing price of ₺21.34. Stock is up 45% over the past year. The company posted a net loss per share of ₺0.083 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 22
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 18% share price decline to ₺21.28, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Gas Utilities industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 131% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ₺8.60 per share. Reported Earnings • Nov 06
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS ₺1.12 (vs ₺0.28 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a strong third quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ₺4.77b (up 57% from 3Q 2020). Net income: ₺336.4m (up 308% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 7.1% (up from 2.7% in 3Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 7% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 16% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Nov 06
Price target increased to ₺16.43 Up from ₺15.20, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 11% below last closing price of ₺18.42. Stock is up 62% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ₺1.25 next year compared to a net loss per share of ₺0.083 last year. Price Target Changed • Aug 20
Price target decreased to ₺15.26 Down from ₺16.78, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 8.6% above last closing price of ₺14.05. Stock is up 16% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Aug 13
Second quarter 2021 earnings released The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ₺2.52b (up 30% from 2Q 2020). Net income: ₺195.7m (up 382% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 7.8% (up from 2.1% in 2Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 85 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Reported Earnings • May 07
First quarter 2021 earnings released: ₺0.038 loss per share (vs ₺0.75 loss in 1Q 2020) The company reported a solid first quarter result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ₺2.88b (up 31% from 1Q 2020). Net loss: ₺11.4m (loss narrowed 95% from 1Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 82 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 31
Inaugural dividend of ₺0.50 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 07 April 2021. Payment date: 09 April 2021. The company last paid an ordinary dividend in August 2013. The average dividend yield among industry peers is 2.4%. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Feb 13
Revenue and earnings miss expectations Revenue missed analyst estimates by 0.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 14%, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Gas Utilities industry in Turkey. Reported Earnings • Feb 13
Full year 2020 earnings released: ₺0.083 loss per share (vs ₺0.91 profit in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings and control over costs, although revenues were flat. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: ₺10.1b (flat on FY 2019). Net loss: ₺24.9m (down 109% from profit in FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 88% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 6% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Tillkännagivande • Feb 12
Aygaz A.S. to Report Q4, 2020 Results on Feb 11, 2021 Aygaz A.S. announced that they will report Q4, 2020 results on Feb 11, 2021 Price Target Changed • Feb 06
Price target raised to ₺16.67 Up from ₺14.48, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. The new target price is 5.5% below the current share price of ₺17.64. As of last close, the stock is up 34% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 05
New 90-day high: ₺15.00 The company is up 32% from its price of ₺11.37 on 07 October 2020. The Turkish market is up 23% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Gas Utilities industry, which is up 18% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ₺39.41 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 17
New 90-day high: ₺14.58 The company is up 29% from its price of ₺11.28 on 18 September 2020. The Turkish market is up 19% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Gas Utilities industry, which is up 13% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ₺39.41 per share. Price Target Changed • Dec 17
Price target raised to ₺14.13 Up from ₺12.97, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. The new target price is close to the current share price of ₺14.58. As of last close, the stock is up 16% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 25
New 90-day high: ₺13.08 The company is up 12% from its price of ₺11.73 on 27 August 2020. The Turkish market is up 22% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, its price trend is similar to the Gas Utilities industry, which is also up 12% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ₺31.80 per share. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Nov 05
Revenue beats expectations, earnings disappoint Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 2.5%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 9.7%, compared to a 8.4% growth forecast for the Gas Utilities industry in Turkey. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 30
New 90-day low: ₺10.56 The company is down 16% from its price of ₺12.63 on 30 July 2020. The Turkish market is down 3.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Gas Utilities industry, which is down 2.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ₺32.26 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 22
New 90-day low: ₺10.95 The company is down 5.0% from its price of ₺11.51 on 24 June 2020. The Turkish market is up 11% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, its price trend is similar to the Gas Utilities industry, which is also down 5.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ₺9.71 per share. Tillkännagivande • Aug 16
Aygaz A.S. to Report Q2, 2020 Results on Aug 12, 2020 Aygaz A.S. announced that they will report Q2, 2020 results on Aug 12, 2020 
