Nictus Valuation

Is NCS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NCS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NCS (ZAR0.71) is trading above our estimate of fair value (ZAR0.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NCS is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NCS?

Key metric: As NCS is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NCS. This is calculated by dividing NCS's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NCS's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	3.5x
Earnings	R10.94m
Market Cap	R37.94m

NCS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NCS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NCS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	7.8x
HIL HomeChoice International	9.6x	n/a	R3.9b
LEW Lewis Group	9x	n/a	R4.2b
SNH Steinhoff International Holdings	0.005x	n/a	R170.1m
5886 Ookabe GlassLtd	12.6x	n/a	JP¥1.0b
NCS Nictus	3.5x	n/a	R37.9m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NCS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.5x) compared to the peer average (9.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NCS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the African Specialty Retail Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NCS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.5x) compared to the African Specialty Retail industry average (10.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NCS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NCS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	3.5x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate NCS's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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