Some Shareholders Feeling Restless Over Mr Price Group Limited's (JSE:MRP) P/E Ratio

Mr Price Group Limited's (JSE:MRP) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12.3x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in South Africa, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 8x and even P/E's below 4x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

Mr Price Group could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Mr Price Group

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Mr Price Group.

Is There Enough Growth For Mr Price Group?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Mr Price Group's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 6.7%. This has soured the latest three-year period, which nevertheless managed to deliver a decent 15% overall rise in EPS. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 5.9% per year as estimated by the seven analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 11% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.

With this information, we find it concerning that Mr Price Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Mr Price Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Mr Price Group that you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.