Discovery Valuation

Is DSY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DSY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: DSY (ZAR196.01) is trading above our estimate of fair value (ZAR91.24)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DSY is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DSY?

Key metric: As DSY is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for DSY. This is calculated by dividing DSY's market cap by their current earnings.
What is DSY's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	18.2x
Earnings	R7.14b
Market Cap	R128.85b

DSY key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	10.4x
PEG Ratio	1.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DSY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for DSY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	10.4x
SLM Sanlam	11.1x	2.5%	R182.8b
MTM Momentum Group	10.7x	14.5%	R40.8b
OMU Old Mutual	7.1x	2.7%	R56.3b
CLI Clientèle	12.5x	n/a	R4.3b
DSY Discovery	18.2x	14.6%	R128.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DSY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.2x) compared to the peer average (10.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DSY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the African Insurance Industry?

3 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

3 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DSY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.2x) compared to the African Insurance industry average (5.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DSY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DSY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	18.2x
Fair PE Ratio	13.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DSY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DSY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	R196.01	R188.12 -4.0%	12.7%	R230.00	R157.00	n/a	5
Nov ’25	R181.00	R185.12 +2.3%	10.2%	R215.00	R157.00	n/a	5
Oct ’25	R171.78	R189.92 +10.6%	7.1%	R215.00	R175.93	n/a	5
Sep ’25	R153.00	R183.48 +19.9%	5.3%	R200.00	R175.93	n/a	4
Aug ’25	R141.82	R181.98 +28.3%	4.0%	R194.00	R175.93	n/a	4
Jul ’25	R140.02	R182.73 +30.5%	3.7%	R194.00	R175.93	n/a	4
Jun ’25	R109.69	R183.48 +67.3%	4.4%	R197.00	R175.93	n/a	4
May ’25	R120.24	R184.52 +53.5%	3.9%	R197.00	R180.00	n/a	4
Apr ’25	R120.63	R184.52 +53.0%	3.9%	R197.00	R180.00	n/a	4
Mar ’25	R135.00	R185.27 +37.2%	4.6%	R200.00	R180.00	n/a	4
Feb ’25	R138.88	R185.27 +33.4%	4.6%	R200.00	R180.00	n/a	4
Jan ’25	R143.68	R180.35 +25.5%	7.0%	R200.00	R165.39	n/a	4
Dec ’24	R131.82	R180.35 +36.8%	7.0%	R200.00	R165.39	n/a	4
Nov ’24	R130.89	R184.31 +40.8%	5.1%	R200.00	R175.00	R181.00	4
Oct ’24	R137.16	R182.81 +33.3%	5.6%	R200.00	R175.00	R171.78	4
Sep ’24	R146.33	R185.31 +26.6%	6.3%	R205.00	R175.00	R153.00	4
Aug ’24	R157.32	R186.67 +18.7%	7.0%	R205.00	R175.00	R141.82	3
Jul ’24	R145.85	R183.33 +25.7%	4.6%	R195.00	R175.00	R140.02	3
Jun ’24	R134.47	R175.00 +30.1%	2.9%	R180.00	R170.00	R109.69	2
May ’24	R143.77	R175.00 +21.7%	2.9%	R180.00	R170.00	R120.24	2
Apr ’24	R139.45	R178.33 +27.9%	7.0%	R195.00	R165.00	R120.63	3
Mar ’24	R149.05	R178.33 +19.6%	7.0%	R195.00	R165.00	R135.00	3
Feb ’24	R141.45	R161.67 +14.3%	14.8%	R186.00	R129.00	R138.88	3
Jan ’24	R123.35	R161.67 +31.1%	14.8%	R186.00	R129.00	R143.68	3
Dec ’23	R120.00	R161.67 +34.7%	14.8%	R186.00	R129.00	R131.82	3
Nov ’23	R122.00	R161.67 +32.5%	14.8%	R186.00	R129.00	R130.89	3

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.