Netcare Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of NTC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

NTC (ZAR15.37) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (ZAR16.03)

Is NTC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NTC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NTC (ZAR15.37) is trading below our estimate of fair value (ZAR16.03)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NTC is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NTC?

Key metric: As NTC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NTC. This is calculated by dividing NTC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NTC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	14.9x
Earnings	R1.29b
Market Cap	R19.01b

NTC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.3x
PEG Ratio	0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NTC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NTC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	23.6x
LHC Life Healthcare Group Holdings	17.6x	13.9%	R24.7b
EMEIS emeis Société anonyme	0.6x	-108.0%	€901.5m
SIA Sienna Senior Living	45.3x	n/a	CA$1.4b
SPI Spire Healthcare Group	30.8x	26.9%	UK£871.1m
NTC Netcare	14.9x	18.2%	R19.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NTC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.9x) compared to the peer average (23.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NTC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Healthcare Industry?

11 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

11 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NTC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.9x) compared to the Global Healthcare industry average (20.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NTC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NTC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	14.9x
Fair PE Ratio	14.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NTC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NTC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	R15.37	R15.64 +1.8%	10.0%	R17.50	R13.10	n/a	6
Nov ’25	R15.07	R14.74 -2.2%	12.6%	R17.50	R12.00	n/a	6
Oct ’25	R15.49	R14.47 -6.6%	11.9%	R17.50	R12.00	n/a	6
Sep ’25	R13.58	R14.47 +6.6%	11.9%	R17.50	R12.00	n/a	6
Aug ’25	R13.00	R14.28 +9.8%	11.7%	R17.50	R12.00	n/a	7
Jul ’25	R13.04	R14.28 +9.5%	11.7%	R17.50	R12.00	n/a	7
Jun ’25	R11.26	R15.45 +37.2%	9.0%	R17.50	R13.10	n/a	7
May ’25	R11.47	R16.39 +42.9%	8.1%	R18.40	R14.00	n/a	8
Apr ’25	R11.89	R16.39 +37.9%	8.1%	R18.40	R14.00	n/a	8
Mar ’25	R13.72	R16.89 +23.1%	6.6%	R18.40	R15.50	n/a	8
Feb ’25	R14.05	R16.89 +20.2%	6.6%	R18.40	R15.50	n/a	8
Jan ’25	R14.24	R16.97 +19.1%	7.2%	R18.80	R15.50	n/a	8
Dec ’24	R13.80	R16.95 +22.9%	7.2%	R18.80	R15.50	n/a	8
Nov ’24	R12.97	R16.90 +30.3%	7.7%	R18.80	R15.00	R15.07	8
Oct ’24	R13.50	R16.90 +25.2%	7.7%	R18.80	R15.00	R15.49	8
Sep ’24	R13.38	R16.70 +24.8%	7.6%	R18.80	R15.00	R13.58	7
Aug ’24	R13.76	R16.70 +21.4%	7.6%	R18.80	R15.00	R13.00	7
Jul ’24	R14.41	R16.83 +16.8%	7.3%	R18.80	R15.00	R13.04	7
Jun ’24	R13.77	R16.70 +21.3%	6.3%	R18.40	R15.00	R11.26	7
May ’24	R15.95	R17.06 +6.9%	6.3%	R18.40	R15.00	R11.47	7
Apr ’24	R14.81	R17.06 +15.2%	6.3%	R18.40	R15.00	R11.89	7
Mar ’24	R15.36	R17.03 +10.9%	5.9%	R18.40	R15.00	R13.72	8
Feb ’24	R14.39	R17.03 +18.3%	5.9%	R18.40	R15.00	R14.05	8
Jan ’24	R14.50	R16.86 +16.3%	3.8%	R17.90	R15.60	R14.24	8
Dec ’23	R14.07	R16.93 +20.3%	3.7%	R17.90	R15.60	R13.80	8
Nov ’23	R15.42	R16.97 +10.0%	3.7%	R17.66	R15.60	R12.97	7

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.