British American Tobacco p.l.c.

JSE:BTI Stock Report

Market Cap: R1.5t

British American Tobacco Valuation

Is BTI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BTI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BTI (ZAR687.99) is trading below our estimate of fair value (ZAR1125.97)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BTI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BTI?

Key metric: As BTI is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for BTI. This is calculated by dividing BTI's market cap by their current revenue.
What is BTI's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.5x
SalesUK£26.18b
Market CapUK£65.52b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does BTI's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for BTI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5x
MO Altria Group
4.4x1.0%US$90.1b
ITC ITC
8x6.9%₹6.0t
2914 Japan Tobacco
2.4x4.7%JP¥7.2t
PM Philip Morris International
5.1x6.5%US$189.7b
BTI British American Tobacco
2.5x1.9%R65.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: BTI is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.5x) compared to the peer average (5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does BTI's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Tobacco Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BTI 2.5xIndustry Avg. 2.1xNo. of Companies10PS01.63.24.86.48+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: BTI is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.5x) compared to the Global Tobacco industry average (2.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BTI's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BTI PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.5x
Fair PS Ratio7.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: BTI is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BTI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR687.99
R731.45
+6.3%
16.0%R991.80R608.61n/a10
Dec ’25R683.10
R729.62
+6.8%
17.5%R1,011.28R574.59n/a10
Nov ’25R615.63
R715.65
+16.2%
18.7%R1,006.19R571.70n/a10
Oct ’25R634.20
R727.87
+14.8%
17.4%R1,006.33R583.21n/a10
Sep ’25R660.10
R732.14
+10.9%
17.2%R1,020.65R579.91n/a12
Aug ’25R646.25
R727.08
+12.5%
17.9%R1,029.91R585.17n/a12
Jul ’25R565.45
R712.45
+26.0%
18.9%R1,022.21R557.57n/a12
Jun ’25R579.00
R718.63
+24.1%
18.7%R1,028.28R560.88n/a12
May ’25R554.00
R734.69
+32.6%
19.9%R1,038.59R566.50n/a12
Apr ’25R577.13
R747.09
+29.4%
19.9%R1,058.96R577.62n/a12
Mar ’25R566.00
R743.15
+31.3%
19.2%R1,050.88R573.21n/a13
Feb ’25R552.56
R745.10
+34.8%
18.9%R1,050.27R572.87n/a13
Jan ’25R541.51
R747.46
+38.0%
17.8%R1,014.12R542.43R676.5715
Dec ’24R588.30
R830.68
+41.2%
15.4%R1,113.57R651.56R683.1015
Nov ’24R561.85
R815.30
+45.1%
15.0%R1,088.82R637.08R615.6315
Oct ’24R593.50
R827.20
+39.4%
14.9%R1,106.81R647.60R634.2015
Sep ’24R618.20
R846.25
+36.9%
14.6%R1,124.54R657.98R660.1016
Aug ’24R607.43
R812.09
+33.7%
14.4%R1,073.46R628.09R646.2516
Jul ’24R626.00
R841.14
+34.4%
13.8%R1,100.28R643.78R565.4516
Jun ’24R630.96
R921.08
+46.0%
11.5%R1,148.11R683.98R579.0016
May ’24R670.83
R860.44
+28.3%
9.0%R1,060.84R699.71R554.0017
Apr ’24R625.69
R859.00
+37.3%
8.7%R1,054.20R695.32R577.1317
Mar ’24R686.89
R847.85
+23.4%
7.3%R1,034.21R770.16R566.0018
Feb ’24R664.05
R838.09
+26.2%
7.7%R990.87R737.88R552.5618
Jan ’24R674.10
R860.78
+27.7%
8.4%R1,024.81R747.26R541.5118

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/05 04:26
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/03 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

British American Tobacco p.l.c. is covered by 47 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Pierre-Yves GauthierAlphaValue
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Michael SteereAvior Capital Markets