MTN Zakhele Futhi (RF) Limited's (JSE:MTNZF) 27% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

MTN Zakhele Futhi (RF) Limited (JSE:MTNZF) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 27% gain in the last month alone. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 58% in the last year.

After such a large jump in price, given around half the companies in South Africa have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 8x, you may consider MTN Zakhele Futhi (RF) as a stock to potentially avoid with its 12x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at MTN Zakhele Futhi (RF) over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for MTN Zakhele Futhi (RF)

Although there are no analyst estimates available for MTN Zakhele Futhi (RF), take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, MTN Zakhele Futhi (RF) would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 15%. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 14% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

In light of this, it's alarming that MTN Zakhele Futhi (RF)'s P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On MTN Zakhele Futhi (RF)'s P/E

MTN Zakhele Futhi (RF)'s P/E is getting right up there since its shares have risen strongly. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that MTN Zakhele Futhi (RF) currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for MTN Zakhele Futhi (RF) that you need to take into consideration.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.