Stock Analysis

Transaction Capital Limited's (JSE:TCP) latest 11% decline adds to one-year losses, institutional investors may consider drastic measures

JSE:TCP
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Key Insights

  • Institutions' substantial holdings in Transaction Capital implies that they have significant influence over the company's share price
  • The top 6 shareholders own 53% of the company
  • Ownership research, combined with past performance data can help provide a good understanding of opportunities in a stock

If you want to know who really controls Transaction Capital Limited (JSE:TCP), then you'll have to look at the makeup of its share registry. The group holding the most number of shares in the company, around 56% to be precise, is institutions. In other words, the group stands to gain the most (or lose the most) from their investment into the company.

And institutional investors saw their holdings value drop by 11% last week. Needless to say, the recent loss which further adds to the one-year loss to shareholders of 7.3% might not go down well especially with this category of shareholders. Institutions or "liquidity providers" control large sums of money and therefore, these types of investors usually have a lot of influence over stock price movements. As a result, if the downtrend continues, institutions may face pressures to sell Transaction Capital, which might have negative implications on individual investors.

Let's take a closer look to see what the different types of shareholders can tell us about Transaction Capital.

Check out our latest analysis for Transaction Capital

ownership-breakdown
JSE:TCP Ownership Breakdown December 20th 2024

What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Transaction Capital?

Institutional investors commonly compare their own returns to the returns of a commonly followed index. So they generally do consider buying larger companies that are included in the relevant benchmark index.

Transaction Capital already has institutions on the share registry. Indeed, they own a respectable stake in the company. This implies the analysts working for those institutions have looked at the stock and they like it. But just like anyone else, they could be wrong. If multiple institutions change their view on a stock at the same time, you could see the share price drop fast. It's therefore worth looking at Transaction Capital's earnings history below. Of course, the future is what really matters.

earnings-and-revenue-growth
JSE:TCP Earnings and Revenue Growth December 20th 2024

Since institutional investors own more than half the issued stock, the board will likely have to pay attention to their preferences. We note that hedge funds don't have a meaningful investment in Transaction Capital. Coronation Fund Managers Limited is currently the company's largest shareholder with 24% of shares outstanding. Meanwhile, the second and third largest shareholders, hold 10.0% and 4.8%, of the shares outstanding, respectively.

On further inspection, we found that more than half the company's shares are owned by the top 6 shareholders, suggesting that the interests of the larger shareholders are balanced out to an extent by the smaller ones.

While studying institutional ownership for a company can add value to your research, it is also a good practice to research analyst recommendations to get a deeper understand of a stock's expected performance. There is a little analyst coverage of the stock, but not much. So there is room for it to gain more coverage.

Insider Ownership Of Transaction Capital

While the precise definition of an insider can be subjective, almost everyone considers board members to be insiders. Management ultimately answers to the board. However, it is not uncommon for managers to be executive board members, especially if they are a founder or the CEO.

Insider ownership is positive when it signals leadership are thinking like the true owners of the company. However, high insider ownership can also give immense power to a small group within the company. This can be negative in some circumstances.

Our data suggests that insiders own under 1% of Transaction Capital Limited in their own names. We do note, however, it is possible insiders have an indirect interest through a private company or other corporate structure. It seems the board members have no more than R11m worth of shares in the R1.9b company. We generally like to see a board more invested. However it might be worth checking if those insiders have been buying.

General Public Ownership

The general public-- including retail investors -- own 29% stake in the company, and hence can't easily be ignored. While this group can't necessarily call the shots, it can certainly have a real influence on how the company is run.

Private Company Ownership

It seems that Private Companies own 14%, of the Transaction Capital stock. Private companies may be related parties. Sometimes insiders have an interest in a public company through a holding in a private company, rather than in their own capacity as an individual. While it's hard to draw any broad stroke conclusions, it is worth noting as an area for further research.

Next Steps:

While it is well worth considering the different groups that own a company, there are other factors that are even more important. Be aware that Transaction Capital is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those can't be ignored...

Ultimately the future is most important. You can access this free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the last twelve months, which refer to the 12-month period ending on the last date of the month the financial statement is dated. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Transaction Capital might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.