Pha Lai Thermal Power (HOSE:PPC) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of PPC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

PPC (₫17650) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (₫24592.45)

PPC fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	2/6

PPC Stock Overview

Pha Lai Thermal Power Joint Stock Company engages in the generation and sale of electricity in Vietnam.

Rewards

Trading at 28.2% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 51.73% per year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 9.63% is not well covered by earnings or forecast to be in the next 3 years

Profit margins (2.9%) are lower than last year (14.9%)

Pha Lai Thermal Power Competitors

PetroVietnam Power Nhon Trach 2

HOSE:NT2

₫7.6t

Ba Ria Thermal Power

HOSE:BTP

₫1.0t

Ninh Binh Thermal Power

HNX:NBP

₫203.3b

Thac Mo Hydro Power

HOSE:TMP

₫4.2t

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Pha Lai Thermal Power
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	₫17,650.00
52 Week High	₫26,000.00
52 Week Low	₫17,000.00
Beta	0.90
1 Month Change	2.32%
3 Month Change	-5.62%
1 Year Change	-22.59%
3 Year Change	-30.38%
5 Year Change	-14.32%
Change since IPO	-77.37%

Shareholder Returns

	PPC	VN Electric Utilities	VN Market
7D	0.9%	0.4%	3.7%
1Y	-22.6%	4.4%	-7.0%

Return vs Industry: PPC underperformed the VN Electric Utilities industry which returned 4.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PPC underperformed the VN Market which returned -7.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is PPC's price volatile compared to industry and market?
PPC volatility
PPC Average Weekly Movement	4.0%
Electric Utilities Industry Average Movement	6.0%
Market Average Movement	7.4%
10% most volatile stocks in VN Market	10.0%
10% least volatile stocks in VN Market	4.2%

Stable Share Price: PPC is less volatile than 75% of VN stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: PPC's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2006	833	Hai Nguyen	https://www.ppc.evn.vn

Pha Lai Thermal Power Joint Stock Company engages in the generation and sale of electricity in Vietnam. It produces electricity through thermal power plants; and provides services related to electricity generation. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Chi Linh, Vietnam.

Pha Lai Thermal Power Fundamentals Summary

How do Pha Lai Thermal Power's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
PPC fundamental statistics
Market Cap	₫5.66t
Earnings (TTM)	₫112.79b
Revenue (TTM)	₫3.94t

50.2x

P/E Ratio

1.4x

P/S Ratio

Is PPC overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
PPC income statement (TTM)
Revenue	₫3.94t
Cost of Revenue	₫3.96t
Gross Profit	-₫26.12b
Other Expenses	-₫138.91b
Earnings	₫112.79b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	351.80
Gross Margin	-0.66%
Net Profit Margin	2.86%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0.0%

How did PPC perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

9.6%

Current Dividend Yield

483%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is PPC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PPC?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for PPC. This is calculated by dividing PPC's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is PPC's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	₫5.66t

PPC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-104.9x
PEG Ratio	1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PPC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

PPC PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for PPC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	8x
NT2 PetroVietnam Power Nhon Trach 2	8.4x	9.2%	₫7.6t
BTP Ba Ria Thermal Power	9.7x	n/a	₫1.0t
NBP Ninh Binh Thermal Power	4.8x	n/a	₫203.3b
TMP Thac Mo Hydro Power	9.2x	n/a	₫4.2t
PPC Pha Lai Thermal Power	50.2x	51.7%	₫5.7t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PPC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (50.2x) compared to the peer average (8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PPC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Electric Utilities Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PPC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (50.2x) compared to the Asian Electric Utilities industry average (16.2x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PPC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PPC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	50.2x
Fair PE Ratio	28.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PPC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (50.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PPC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PPC (₫17650) is trading below our estimate of fair value (₫24592.45)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PPC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Pha Lai Thermal Power forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

51.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PPC's forecast earnings growth (51.7% per year) is above the savings rate (3.7%).

Earnings vs Market: PPC's earnings (51.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the VN market (19.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: PPC's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PPC's revenue (24.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the VN market (17.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PPC's revenue (24.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: PPC's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (19.5%).

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Past Performance

How has Pha Lai Thermal Power performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-19.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PPC has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: PPC's current net profit margins (2.9%) are lower than last year (14.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PPC's earnings have declined by 19.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: PPC's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: PPC had negative earnings growth (-86.8%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Electric Utilities industry average (2.6%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: PPC's Return on Equity (2.3%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Pha Lai Thermal Power's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: PPC's short term assets (₫2,621.1B) exceed its short term liabilities (₫574.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: PPC has no long term liabilities.

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: PPC is debt free.

Reducing Debt: PPC has no debt compared to 5 years ago when its debt to equity ratio was 42.9%.

Debt Coverage: PPC has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: PPC has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Pha Lai Thermal Power current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

9.63%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: PPC's dividend (9.63%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the VN market (2.8%).

High Dividend: PPC's dividend (9.63%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the VN market (7.47%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: PPC's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: PPC's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its high payout ratio (483.2%), PPC's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (97.8%), PPC's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Hai Nguyen

0.083

Tenure

Mr. Hai Hoang Nguyen serves as Acting Chief Executive Officer at Pha Lai Thermal Power Joint Stock Company since July 01, 2022 and had been its Deputy Chief Executive Officer since November 01, 2019.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: PPC's management team is considered experienced (4.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: PPC's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/06 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/05 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31