Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Company

HOSE:HPG Stock Report

Market Cap: ₫170.8t

Hoa Phat Group Valuation

Is HPG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HPG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HPG (₫26700) is trading below our estimate of fair value (₫40146.45)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HPG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HPG?

Key metric: As HPG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HPG. This is calculated by dividing HPG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HPG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.4x
Earnings₫11.85t
Market Cap₫170.78t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HPG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HPG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.3x
HSG Hoa Sen Group
22.8x29.9%₫11.6t
NKG Nam Kim Steel
10.5x36.7%₫4.7t
DGC Duc Giang Chemicals Group
15.8x21.6%₫43.8t
GGBR4 Gerdau
8.2x2.7%R$38.6b
HPG Hoa Phat Group
14.4x24.3%₫170.8t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HPG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the peer average (14.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HPG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Metals and Mining Industry?

27 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HPG 14.4xIndustry Avg. 19.5xNo. of Companies88PE01632486480+
27 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HPG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the Asian Metals and Mining industry average (19.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HPG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HPG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.4x
Fair PE Ratio18.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HPG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HPG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current₫26,700.00
₫33,560.00
+25.7%
10.7%₫38,600.00₫27,000.00n/a10
Dec ’25₫26,750.00
₫33,560.00
+25.5%
10.7%₫38,600.00₫27,000.00n/a10
Nov ’25₫26,550.00
₫33,020.00
+24.4%
10.2%₫38,600.00₫27,000.00n/a10
Oct ’25₫26,750.00
₫32,966.67
+23.2%
10.8%₫38,600.00₫27,000.00n/a9
Sep ’25₫25,500.00
₫34,068.18
+33.6%
7.5%₫38,600.00₫31,054.55n/a6
Aug ’25₫26,700.00
₫34,074.55
+27.6%
8.2%₫38,600.00₫31,054.55n/a5
Jul ’25₫28,350.00
₫34,074.55
+20.2%
8.2%₫38,600.00₫31,054.55n/a5
Jun ’25₫28,600.00
₫32,229.09
+12.7%
6.0%₫35,454.55₫30,000.00n/a5
May ’25₫25,818.18
₫30,938.18
+19.8%
5.4%₫33,272.73₫28,363.64n/a5
Apr ’25₫27,363.64
₫29,574.55
+8.1%
6.7%₫32,000.00₫26,454.55n/a5
Mar ’25₫28,045.45
₫29,574.55
+5.5%
6.7%₫32,000.00₫26,454.55n/a5
Feb ’25₫25,318.18
₫27,200.00
+7.4%
5.5%₫30,000.00₫25,545.45n/a5
Jan ’25₫25,409.09
₫27,200.00
+7.0%
5.5%₫30,000.00₫25,545.45n/a5
Dec ’24₫24,454.55
₫25,345.45
+3.6%
6.8%₫27,272.73₫22,363.64₫26,750.005
Nov ’24₫21,772.73
₫24,272.73
+11.5%
8.8%₫27,272.73₫21,363.64₫26,550.005
Oct ’24₫23,909.09
₫23,472.73
-1.8%
11.3%₫27,272.73₫20,454.55₫26,750.005
Sep ’24₫25,090.91
₫24,863.64
-0.9%
15.9%₫31,818.18₫20,454.55₫25,500.006
Aug ’24₫25,000.00
₫21,371.21
-14.5%
22.6%₫31,818.18₫17,727.27₫26,700.006
Jul ’24₫23,772.73
₫21,371.21
-10.1%
22.6%₫31,818.18₫17,727.27₫28,350.006
Jun ’24₫19,454.55
₫18,795.45
-3.4%
8.7%₫21,181.82₫16,363.64₫28,600.006
May ’24₫19,681.82
₫18,750.00
-4.7%
6.9%₫20,454.55₫16,363.64₫25,818.186
Apr ’24₫18,909.09
₫20,075.76
+6.2%
16.3%₫26,818.18₫16,363.64₫27,363.646
Mar ’24₫19,000.00
₫20,075.76
+5.7%
16.3%₫26,818.18₫16,363.64₫28,045.456
Feb ’24₫19,181.82
₫21,348.48
+11.3%
23.7%₫29,454.55₫16,363.64₫25,318.186
Jan ’24₫16,363.64
₫21,000.00
+28.3%
25.9%₫29,454.55₫14,272.73₫25,409.096
Dec ’23₫16,545.45
₫23,909.09
+44.5%
25.3%₫31,545.45₫14,272.73₫24,454.556

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 01:13
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Company is covered by 19 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ton Nu MinhBao Viet Securities Joint Stock Company
Minh PhamBIDV Securities Joint Stock Company
Yu Jie LoBofA Global Research