Origin Energy Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of OGFG.Y when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

OGFG.Y ($6.63) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($8.42)

Is OGFG.Y undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OGFG.Y when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OGFG.Y ($6.63) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($8.42)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OGFG.Y is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OGFG.Y?

Key metric: As OGFG.Y is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for OGFG.Y. This is calculated by dividing OGFG.Y's market cap by their current earnings.
What is OGFG.Y's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	13.5x
Earnings	AU$1.40b
Market Cap	AU$18.90b

OGFG.Y key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	16.2x
PEG Ratio	-3.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does OGFG.Y's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for OGFG.Y vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	17.9x
PNW Pinnacle West Capital	17.2x	5.9%	US$10.6b
AGR Avangrid	12.4x	0.5%	US$14.0b
EVRG Evergy	17.3x	6.6%	US$14.8b
LNT Alliant Energy	24.6x	11.2%	US$16.2b
OGFG.Y Origin Energy	13.5x	-4.4%	US$18.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: OGFG.Y is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the peer average (17.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OGFG.Y's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Electric Utilities Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies available in this PE range

0 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: OGFG.Y is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the US Electric Utilities industry average (21.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OGFG.Y's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OGFG.Y PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	13.5x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate OGFG.Y's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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