Stock Analysis

Those who invested in Southwest Gas Holdings (NYSE:SWX) a year ago are up 28%

NYSE:SWX
Source: Shutterstock

On average, over time, stock markets tend to rise higher. This makes investing attractive. But if you choose that path, you're going to buy some stocks that fall short of the market. For example, the Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SWX), share price is up over the last year, but its gain of 24% trails the market return. However, the longer term returns haven't been so impressive, with the stock up just 8.9% in the last three years.

Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Southwest Gas Holdings

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the last year Southwest Gas Holdings grew its earnings per share, moving from a loss to a profit.

When a company is just on the edge of profitability it can be well worth considering other metrics in order to more precisely gauge growth (and therefore understand share price movements).

Unfortunately Southwest Gas Holdings' fell 5.1% over twelve months. So the fundamental metrics don't provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:SWX Earnings and Revenue Growth January 26th 2025

We know that Southwest Gas Holdings has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Southwest Gas Holdings will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Southwest Gas Holdings the TSR over the last 1 year was 28%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Southwest Gas Holdings' TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 28%. Most would be happy with a gain, and it helps that the year's return is actually better than the average return over five years, which was 3%. Even if the share price growth slows down from here, there's a good chance that this is business worth watching in the long term. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Southwest Gas Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Southwest Gas Holdings (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) that you should be aware of.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.