New Jersey Resources (NJR): Taking Stock of Valuation After Mizuho’s Fresh Upgrade to Outperform

Mizuho’s fresh upgrade on New Jersey Resources (NJR) has put this steady utility back on investors’ radar, spotlighting its valuation, cleaner energy growth platforms, and unusually resilient regulatory position in a choppy natural gas backdrop.

See our latest analysis for New Jersey Resources.

The upgrade lands after a choppy stretch, with a 1 month share price return of minus 5.16 percent, even as the 5 year total shareholder return of 55.99 percent signals steady, longer term wealth creation and momentum that may be resuming as investors reassess the growth and income story.

If this kind of steady utility story has you thinking about where else capital might work hard, now is a good time to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With shares lagging recent market moves yet trading nearly 20 percent below Mizuho’s new target, investors face a key question: Is New Jersey Resources quietly mispriced, or already reflecting its next leg of regulated and clean energy growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 15.4% Undervalued

With New Jersey Resources last closing at 46.31 dollars against a narrative fair value near 55 dollars, the current price sits notably below projected worth.

The analysts have a consensus price target of 53.571 dollars for New Jersey Resources based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of 61.0 dollars, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just 49.0 dollars.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how modest revenue shrinkage, slightly thinner margins, and a higher future earnings multiple can still support a richer price tag? The narrative lays out the full calculation.

Result: Fair Value of $54.71 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the narrative could unravel if policy shifts accelerate electrification, or if large clean energy investments underdeliver on returns and regulatory support.

Find out about the key risks to this New Jersey Resources narrative.

Another Take On Value

While the analyst narrative points to about 15 percent undervaluation, our DCF model is far more cautious. It suggests fair value sits closer to 9.52 dollars per share, well below today’s 46.31 dollar price. When models disagree this sharply, which story do you trust?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out New Jersey Resources for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 909 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own New Jersey Resources Narrative

If you see the story differently or simply want to test your own assumptions against the data, you can build a personalized view in minutes at Do it your way.

A great starting point for your New Jersey Resources research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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