Are New Jersey Resources's (NYSE:NJR) Statutory Earnings A Good Reflection Of Its Earnings Potential?

As a general rule, we think profitable companies are less risky than companies that lose money. Having said that, sometimes statutory profit levels are not a good guide to ongoing profitability, because some short term one-off factor has impacted profit levels. Today we'll focus on whether this year's statutory profits are a good guide to understanding New Jersey Resources (NYSE:NJR).

While New Jersey Resources was able to generate revenue of US$2.03b in the last twelve months, we think its profit result of US$168.7m was more important. The chart below shows that both revenue and profit have declined over the last three years.

See our latest analysis for New Jersey Resources

Of course, it is only sensible to look beyond the statutory profits and question how well those numbers represent the sustainable earnings power of the business. In this article we'll look at how New Jersey Resources is impacting shareholders by issuing new shares. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

In order to understand the potential for per share returns, it is essential to consider how much a company is diluting shareholders. As it happens, New Jersey Resources issued 6.6% more new shares over the last year. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. To talk about net income, without noticing earnings per share, is to be distracted by the big numbers while ignoring the smaller numbers that talk to per share value. Check out New Jersey Resources' historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

A Look At The Impact Of New Jersey Resources' Dilution on Its Earnings Per Share (EPS).

New Jersey Resources' net profit dropped by 13% per year over the last three years. On the bright side, in the last twelve months it grew profit by 24%. On the other hand, earnings per share are only up 19% over the same period. So you can see that the dilution has had a bit of an impact on shareholders. Therefore, the dilution is having a noteworthy influence on shareholder returns. And so, you can see quite clearly that dilution is influencing shareholder earnings.

In the long term, earnings per share growth should beget share price growth. So it will certainly be a positive for shareholders if New Jersey Resources can grow EPS persistently. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.

Our Take On New Jersey Resources' Profit Performance

New Jersey Resources shareholders should keep in mind how many new shares it is issuing, because, dilution clearly has the power to severely impact shareholder returns. Therefore, it seems possible to us that New Jersey Resources' true underlying earnings power is actually less than its statutory profit. But at least holders can take some solace from the 19% EPS growth in the last year. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for New Jersey Resources (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of New Jersey Resources' profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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