Xcel Energy's (NASDAQ:XEL) Solid Earnings May Rest On Weak Foundations

The recent earnings posted by Xcel Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:XEL) were solid, but the stock didn't move as much as we expected. However the statutory profit number doesn't tell the whole story, and we have found some factors which might be of concern to shareholders.

View our latest analysis for Xcel Energy

An Unusual Tax Situation

We can see that Xcel Energy received a tax benefit of US$402m. This is of course a bit out of the ordinary, given it is more common for companies to be paying tax than receiving tax benefits! We're sure the company was pleased with its tax benefit. However, our data indicates that tax benefits can temporarily boost statutory profit in the year it is booked, but subsequently profit may fall back. In the likely event the tax benefit is not repeated, we'd expect to see its statutory profit levels drop, at least in the absence of strong growth. While we think it's good that the company has booked a tax benefit, it does mean that there's every chance the statutory profit will come in a lot higher than it would be if the income was adjusted for one-off factors.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Xcel Energy's Profit Performance

As we have already discussed Xcel Energy reported that it received a tax benefit, rather than paying tax, in the last year. As a result we don't think its profit result, which includes that tax-boost, is a good guide to its sustainable profit levels. Because of this, we think that it may be that Xcel Energy's statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. Nonetheless, it's still worth noting that its earnings per share have grown at 16% over the last three years. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Our analysis shows 2 warning signs for Xcel Energy (1 can't be ignored!) and we strongly recommend you look at these before investing.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Xcel Energy's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.