Returns On Capital At NorthWestern (NASDAQ:NWE) Have Stalled

May 23, 2023

Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key financial metrics. Firstly, we'll want to see a proven return on capital employed (ROCE) that is increasing, and secondly, an expanding base of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. In light of that, when we looked at NorthWestern (NASDAQ:NWE) and its ROCE trend, we weren't exactly thrilled.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on NorthWestern is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.043 = US$286m ÷ (US$7.3b - US$681m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2023).

So, NorthWestern has an ROCE of 4.3%. On its own, that's a low figure but it's around the 5.0% average generated by the Integrated Utilities industry.

Check out our latest analysis for NorthWestern

In the above chart we have measured NorthWestern's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering NorthWestern here for free.

SWOT Analysis for NorthWestern

Strength

Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

See NWE's revenue and earnings trends.

Weakness

Interest payments on debt are not well covered.

Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Integrated Utilities market.

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.

Opportunity

Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.

Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.

Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.

Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Is NWE well equipped to handle threats?

How Are Returns Trending?

In terms of NorthWestern's historical ROCE trend, it doesn't exactly demand attention. Over the past five years, ROCE has remained relatively flat at around 4.3% and the business has deployed 30% more capital into its operations. This poor ROCE doesn't inspire confidence right now, and with the increase in capital employed, it's evident that the business isn't deploying the funds into high return investments.

The Bottom Line On NorthWestern's ROCE

As we've seen above, NorthWestern's returns on capital haven't increased but it is reinvesting in the business. Unsurprisingly, the stock has only gained 30% over the last five years, which potentially indicates that investors are accounting for this going forward. As a result, if you're hunting for a multi-bagger, we think you'd have more luck elsewhere.

NorthWestern does have some risks, we noticed 4 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit concerning) we think you should know about.

While NorthWestern may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if NorthWestern Energy Group might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.