Union Pacific Corporation

NYSE:UNP Stock Report

Market Cap: US$159.3b

Union Pacific Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Union Pacific is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 9.8% and 7.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 8.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 30% in 3 years.

Key information

9.8%

Earnings growth rate

8.91%

EPS growth rate

Transportation earnings growth13.2%
Revenue growth rate7.1%
Future return on equity29.99%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated06 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Apr 29

Union Pacific: This High-Quality Railroad Stock Is A Long-Term Play

Summary Union Pacific is the largest US railroad, commanding a 39% market share and demonstrating operational excellence. UNP delivered strong 1Q26 results: revenue up 3% YoY to $6.2B, net income up 5%, and significant efficiency gains across key metrics. I see the company's slight valuation premium as justified by its scale, operational quality, and robust cash generation; forward P/E signals expected earnings growth. With a 2.04% dividend yield, 127-year payout streak, and a 'Buy' rating, UNP offers stability and long-term upside for risk-averse investors. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 25

UNP: Merger Synergies And Rail Asset Durability Will Guide Future Returns

Union Pacific's analyst fair value estimate has been updated from $272.33 to $287.74 as analysts factor in expectations for higher projected revenue growth, slightly stronger profit margins, and a modestly lower future P/E multiple, supported by a broad wave of recent Street price target increases across major banks. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a clear tilt toward higher price targets for Union Pacific, with several large firms adjusting their models around revenue, margins, and the Norfolk Southern transaction.
New Narrative • Apr 22

Union Pacific (UNP): The Transcontinental Architect and the "Operational Efficiency" Pivot

Union Pacific (UNP) , the titan of Western freight and the backbone of the American supply chain, enters Wednesday, April 22, 2026 , on the eve of one of the most consequential earnings reports in its 164-year history. Trading at $251.14 USD —a modest climb as investors position themselves for tomorrow’s Q1 release—the stock is buoyed by a "Moderate Buy" consensus and a record-setting S&P 500 above 7,000.
Narrative Update • Apr 08

UNP: Merger Prospects And Rail Asset Durability Will Shape Future Returns

Union Pacific's analyst price target edges higher to about $272 as analysts weigh tempered revenue growth and slightly lower margin assumptions against higher expected future P/E multiples and potential benefits from the proposed Norfolk Southern transaction and broader rail sector reratings. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Union Pacific points to a mix of optimism around the proposed Norfolk Southern transaction and the value of its rail network, alongside a more cautious stance on regulatory risk and the macro backdrop for freight demand.
Narrative Update • Mar 25

UNP: Merger Synergies And Rail Network Durability Will Drive Future Upside

Narrative Update Union Pacific's implied fair value edges higher by about $0.08 per share in the model, reflecting modest tweaks to the discount rate and future P/E assumptions as analysts highlight potential merger cost synergies, stronger operating performance across rail peers, and the appeal of rail infrastructure as long lived and hard to replicate assets. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Union Pacific centers on the proposed merger with Norfolk Southern, the value of its rail network as a long lived asset, and how freight demand and regulation could affect execution and valuation.
Narrative Update • Mar 10

UNP: Merger Synergies And Rail Infrastructure Resilience Will Shape Forward Outlook

The updated analyst price target for Union Pacific edges higher, with our fair value estimate moving from $266.08 to $272.21 as analysts factor in potential cost synergies from the proposed Norfolk Southern merger, sustained operating performance across the rail group, and the appeal of hard to replicate rail infrastructure. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Union Pacific clusters around two big themes: the proposed Norfolk Southern merger and the value the market places on irreplaceable rail infrastructure.
Narrative Update • Feb 24

UNP: Merger Scrutiny And Freight Recovery Hopes Will Shape Future Prospects

Union Pacific's updated analyst price target edges higher to about $266 from roughly $264, as analysts weigh slightly firmer profit margin assumptions, a modestly higher future P/E of around 21x, and a series of recent target revisions across the rail group. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Union Pacific reflects a split view, with some analysts leaning into the rail recovery story and others focusing on regulatory and freight cycle risks.
Narrative Update • Feb 10

UNP: Merger Scrutiny And Freight Demand Risks Will Shape Future Opportunity

Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Union Pacific by low single digits in recent weeks, generally citing mixed readthroughs from regulatory risk around the Norfolk Southern merger and freight demand, even as some models now assume slightly stronger revenue growth, higher profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Union Pacific shows a split tape, with some bullish analysts edging price targets higher and others turning more cautious as they reassess regulatory risk and freight demand assumptions.
Narrative Update • Jan 27

UNP: Merger Review And Regulatory Scrutiny Will Ultimately Unlock Future Upside

Narrative Update Overview Analysts have nudged their implied price target for Union Pacific higher by about US$3, to roughly US$263, as they factor in modest tweaks to discount rates, revenue growth, margins and future P/E assumptions, while weighing recent commentary on regulatory risks, freight softness and the proposed Norfolk Southern merger. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Union Pacific highlights a split view, with some analysts focused on longer term merger benefits and intermodal opportunities, while others are more cautious about regulatory risk, freight softness and valuation after the share price rally.
Narrative Update • Jan 09

UNP: Merger Review And Regulatory Overhang Will Set Stage For Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their Union Pacific fair value estimate slightly to about US$260 from roughly US$260.50. This reflects a lower blended Street price target as some factor in cautious views on the proposed Norfolk Southern merger, softer freight trends, a modestly higher discount rate, and only small changes to long term growth, margin, and P/E assumptions.
Narrative Update • Dec 25

UNP: Merger Review And Margin Discipline Will Support Performance Amid Intermodal Weakness

Analysts have nudged their price target on Union Pacific slightly higher, with modestly lower growth and margin assumptions but a somewhat richer future earnings multiple now supporting an updated fair value of about $260.50, up from roughly $260.20. Analyst Commentary Recent price target revisions reflect a cautiously constructive stance on Union Pacific, with modest upside embedded in valuation but tempered by mixed near term volume trends and execution risks.
Narrative Update • Dec 11

UNP: Merger Review And Margin Gains Will Support Performance Amid Carload Weakness

Analysts have nudged our Union Pacific price target slightly higher to about $260, as modestly improved profit margin expectations, along with supportive Street target increases from firms raising estimates into the low to high $250s and beyond, offset a tempered revenue growth outlook and a slightly higher discount rate. Analyst Commentary Street research has generally turned more constructive on Union Pacific, with multiple firms lifting price targets into the low to high $250s and one positive rating change, even as near term traffic trends soften.
Narrative Update • Nov 27

UNP: Merger Approval Will Drive Stronger Performance Despite Carload Softness

Union Pacific's analyst price target has risen by a modest amount, with analysts highlighting mixed carload growth trends and recent quarterly performance as key factors in their updated valuation, which is now near $263 per share. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst commentary on Union Pacific has reflected both optimism and caution regarding the company's near-term prospects and long-term execution.
Narrative Update • Nov 05

UNP: Future Merger Will Drive Improved Profitability Amid Sector Upheaval

Union Pacific's analyst price target has edged slightly lower to approximately $260.58 from $261.68, as analysts point to modest carload growth moderation and ongoing rail traffic softness. This comes despite some improvement in profit margin and revenue growth projections.
Narrative Update • Oct 22

Analyst Commentary Highlights Union Pacific Outlook Amid Merger Talks and Valuation Adjustments

Union Pacific's fair value estimate edged up slightly. Analysts raised their price targets by $12 to $272, citing improving rail volumes and constructive industry trends.
Narrative Update • Oct 08

Efficiency Upgrades And New Facilities Will Ensure Future Stability

Union Pacific's analyst price target has increased from $256.92 to $261.56. This change is driven by analysts' expectations of steadily improving profit margins and a more resilient industry outlook, despite moderated revenue growth forecasts.
Analysis Article • Aug 18

Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At $1.38

The board of Union Pacific Corporation ( NYSE:UNP ) has announced that it will be paying its dividend of $1.38 on the...
Analysis Article • Aug 04

Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) Has Announced That It Will Be Increasing Its Dividend To $1.38

Union Pacific Corporation ( NYSE:UNP ) will increase its dividend from last year's comparable payment on the 30th of...
Analysis Article • Jul 21

Union Pacific's (NYSE:UNP) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's

The board of Union Pacific Corporation ( NYSE:UNP ) has announced that the dividend on 30th of September will be...
Analysis Article • Jun 21

Here's Why Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...
Analysis Article • May 08

Calculating The Fair Value Of Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP)

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Union Pacific fair value estimate is US$254 Union Pacific's...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 24

Union Pacific: I Couldn't Be More Bullish If I Tried

Summary Uncertainty and tariffs dominate headlines, squeezing an already stretched market, but Union Pacific stands out as a resilient long-term winner with a strong CEO. Despite a 15% drop since January, UNP's latest earnings reveal resilience through flat revenue, disciplined cost control, and a focus on efficiency. UNP's cash flow fuels buybacks and dividend growth, while its valuation at 14.6x, 2027 earnings presents a compelling opportunity. With a wide moat, shareholder-friendly management, and strategic positioning, I'm confident that buying the dip in UNP will reward patience. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Apr 13

The Profit Engine: A Financial Anatomy Of Union Pacific

Summary Union Pacific's strategic shift in 2023 towards stability and growth has led to significant improvements in network security and a 30% rise in international container volumes. The company has diversified from coal and grain to high-margin segments like containers, automobiles, and industrial goods, enhancing productivity and flexibility. Financially, Union Pacific boasts a strong EBITDA margin of 50%, high free cash flow, and manageable debt, supporting investments, dividends, and buybacks. With a fair valuation of $245.06 per share and a total return potential of 12.04%, I rate Union Pacific stock as a "Buy". Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 02

Union Pacific: A Solid Company, Fully Valued

Summary Union Pacific is a major U.S. railroad company with a $150B market cap, operating 32,000 miles of track across 23 states. Revenue per share has seen fluctuations, but gross profit margin and ROIC remain stable, indicating a resilient financial performance. Dividend growth has been erratic but is average more than 10% over the past decade and is on an overall upward trend. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 19

Union Pacific: Still A Buy Now And Picking Up Steam

Summary Union Pacific has been a very reliable dividend grower, and I expect that to continue to be the case in the years ahead. The railroad operator topped the analyst consensus for diluted EPS for the fourth quarter. Union Pacific enjoys an A- credit rating from S&P on a stable outlook. Shares of the stock could be priced at a 4% discount to fair value. Union Pacific appears to be set up for 11% annual total returns over the next few years. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 26

Wide Moat Dividends: Why We're Loading Up On Union Pacific

Summary Union Pacific Corporation boasts a robust business moat, supported by its railroad duopoly, strategic partnerships, and access to key ports and high-margin industries. Despite lagging the market recently, Union Pacific's strong 4Q24 earnings, driven by efficiencies, volumes, and cost cuts, affirm my bullish thesis. Jim Vena's leadership since August 2023 has significantly improved Union Pacific's performance, demonstrating effective management and strategic direction. I am increasing my investment in UNP, confident in its long-term economic profitability and competitive positioning in the railroad industry. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 14

Union Pacific: No Rush To Catch The Next Train

Summary Union Pacific is fully valued with only a 1.5% upside potential, making it a "Hold" despite strong macro tailwinds and industry leading operational efficiency. Key growth drivers include reshoring, e-commerce expansion, and technological advancements, while challenges include recession risk, labor issues, and competition. UNP's Q3 2024 results showed solid performance with increased revenue and net income, but the outlook for 2024 full year and 2025 remains mixed with limited short-term upside. Strong shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks are positives, but current valuation offers minimal margin of safety; wait for a 5-10% correction before buying. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 12

Union Pacific: Betting On Margin Expansion And Untapped Value

Summary Union Pacific Corporation's improved labor productivity and intermodal performance, alongside stable train lengths, support a positive outlook for 2025. The company’s high Degree of Operating Leverage suggests significant profit margin expansion potential with anticipated sales growth. Valuation metrics indicate Union Pacific's stock is undervalued, trading below our forward P/E model's price target, presenting a strong buy opportunity. Despite risks such as labor issues and political uncertainty, economic indicators and technical analysis favor a 'Buy' rating for Union Pacific. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 24

Why Union Pacific Should Be A Long-Term Core Holding

Summary Union Pacific stock is an outstanding core holding. It's an excellent choice for long-term investors seeking to combine steady income and capital appreciation. Union Pacific management is shareholder-friendly: offering excellent dividend growth, consistent stock repurchases, and clean, clear earnings reports. Management makes promises and keeps them. CEO Jim Vena is an experienced, focused railroad operator; among the very best in the business. Good management makes a difference. Union Pacific boasts a wide moat franchise, a sound balance sheet, and generates consistent cash flow. Currently, UNP stock epitomizes GARP: Growth at a Reasonable Price. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 06

Full Steam Ahead: The Case For Betting Big On Union Pacific's Dividends

Summary Union Pacific's strong North American footprint, efficient operations, and 18-year dividend growth make it a cornerstone of my portfolio. Despite cyclical challenges, new CEO Jim Vena has improved Union Pacific's operating ratio to 60.3%, the best in the industry. Union Pacific's robust cash flow, dividend, and buyback plans, along with a healthy balance sheet, underscore its value. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 22

Buy Before Q3 Earnings: Union Pacific's $6.35B Quarter Could Be Coming

Summary Union Pacific is about to report its Q3 earnings. Playing a critical role in U.S. transportation, the company is exposed to some cyclicality. The latest available U.S. rail traffic data suggests Union Pacific may report a strong quarter. In this article, let's walk through all the latest information on the industry to understand why Union Pacific's outlook is rosy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 27

Betting Big On Union Pacific: The Railroad King Of Dividend Growth

Summary Union Pacific's operational excellence, including improved freight car velocity and lower terminal dwell times, positions it for long-term success and elevated shareholder returns. Strategic investments in high-demand routes and technology upgrades are expected to drive future growth and efficiencies, even in a challenging macroeconomic environment. The company's strong commitment to shareholder returns is evident through its 125-year dividend history, a 45% payout ratio, and a robust buyback program. Despite economic uncertainties and weaker growth expectations, Union Pacific's industry-leading network efficiencies and strategic focus make it a reliable dividend growth stock. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 13

Still Avoiding Union Pacific

Summary Despite impressive financial performance, Union Pacific remains a poor investment compared to risk-free alternatives like the 10-Year Treasury Note. The stock trades at near decade-high valuations, with a negative risk premium and high recession probability, making it too risky. Market expectations for Union Pacific's growth are overly optimistic, with a predicted 6% growth rate deemed excessive and risky. Given the current valuation and economic conditions, it's prudent to avoid Union Pacific and seek safer investments like Treasury Notes. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 28

'Rail-ing' In The Profits - Union Pacific Steaming Towards New Highs

Summary Union Pacific's new CEO, Jim Vena, is driving improved profitability and operational efficiency, with a 60% operating ratio and a 9% increase in operating income. The company is deleveraging, reducing its debt/EBITDA ratio to 2.8x, and resuming buybacks, signaling financial health and shareholder value focus. Despite a mixed economic environment, UNP's diverse revenue streams, particularly chemicals and intermodal, show promising growth, indicating potential for future industrial recovery. Trading at a forward 2025 PE of 19.7, Union Pacific is undervalued, with potential for 15+% annual returns, making it a compelling buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 06

Union Pacific: A Blue Chip Dividend Stock To Board Now

Summary Union Pacific is a bet on the continued economic vibrancy of America. Core pricing gains and increased volumes weren't enough to top analysts' expectations in Q2. Improved operating efficiency helped deliver excellent diluted EPS growth, though. Union Pacific's A-rated balance sheet is supported by a reasonable and strengthening adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio. The stock could be trading 7% below fair value. Union Pacific appears poised to generate 10% annual total returns by the end of 2026. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:UNP - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202828,2328,8037,99412,98110
12/31/202727,1088,1147,47310,97521
12/31/202625,9477,3516,90410,29422
3/31/202624,7007,2135,6989,520N/A
12/31/202524,5107,1385,4999,290N/A
9/30/202524,5467,0526,0139,727N/A
6/30/202524,3936,9356,2619,856N/A
3/31/202524,2466,7325,8739,434N/A
12/31/202424,2506,7475,8949,346N/A
9/30/202424,2886,6375,5259,079N/A
6/30/202424,1386,4944,8568,554N/A
3/31/202424,0946,3905,0308,661N/A
12/31/202324,1196,3794,7738,379N/A
9/30/202324,1406,3654,7648,276N/A
6/30/202324,7656,7325,4719,053N/A
3/31/202325,0716,9985,4228,966N/A
12/31/202224,8756,9985,7429,362N/A
9/30/202224,4287,0715,9189,599N/A
6/30/202223,4286,8495,5898,980N/A
3/31/202222,6636,8126,0629,310N/A
12/31/202121,8046,5236,0969,032N/A
9/30/202121,2126,1926,4729,050N/A
6/30/202120,5655,8825,8498,367N/A
3/31/202119,3055,2165,6878,343N/A
12/31/202019,5335,3495,6138,540N/A
9/30/202019,6045,3725,0868,338N/A
6/30/202020,2015,5645,6099,101N/A
3/31/202021,5536,0025,2978,805N/A
12/31/201921,7085,919N/A8,609N/A
9/30/201922,2536,070N/A8,576N/A
6/30/201922,6656,108N/A8,553N/A
3/31/201922,7416,047N/A8,744N/A
12/31/201822,8325,966N/A8,686N/A
9/30/201822,52511,690N/A8,206N/A
6/30/201822,00511,291N/A7,804N/A
3/31/201821,58310,950N/A7,248N/A
12/31/201721,24010,712N/A7,230N/A
9/30/201720,9584,578N/A7,456N/A
6/30/201720,7244,515N/A7,459N/A
3/31/201720,2444,326N/A7,235N/A
12/31/201619,9414,233N/A7,525N/A
9/30/201619,9814,206N/A7,186N/A
6/30/201620,3694,375N/A7,096N/A
3/31/201621,0284,600N/A7,453N/A
12/31/201521,8134,772N/A7,344N/A
9/30/201522,7585,086N/A7,652N/A
6/30/201523,3785,156N/A7,937N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: UNP's forecast earnings growth (9.8% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: UNP's earnings (9.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: UNP's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: UNP's revenue (7.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: UNP's revenue (7.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: UNP's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (30%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 06:11
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Union Pacific Corporation is covered by 44 analysts. 22 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Will ChienAccountability Research Corporation
John EadeArgus Research Company
Daniel MooreBaird