Update shared on 27 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.07%Union Pacific's analyst price target has risen by a modest amount, with analysts highlighting mixed carload growth trends and recent quarterly performance as key factors in their updated valuation, which is now near $263 per share.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst commentary on Union Pacific has reflected both optimism and caution regarding the company's near-term prospects and long-term execution.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have raised their price targets for Union Pacific, citing confidence in the company's capacity to deliver solid performance despite existing industry headwinds.
- Recent quarterly rail volumes were largely in line with projections, indicating a level of operational consistency that is being favorably received.
- Some analysts have shifted to more positive outlooks, noting improving trends and positioning Union Pacific as a preferred name among major North American railroads.
- Growth in certain carload segments, particularly outside of intermodal, has supported bullish expectations for ongoing revenue resilience.
- Bearish analysts point out that, following a period of strong carload growth, momentum has moderated and recent traffic data shows a year-over-year decline in total carload growth.
- Intermodal carload volumes have fallen by mid-teens percentages, raising concerns about demand softness and the pace of recovery in this business segment.
- Despite price target increases, neutral ratings from several major firms indicate lingering uncertainty around valuation and the sustainability of recent improvements.
What's in the News
- The US Department of Justice has begun investigating Union Pacific's proposed acquisition of Norfolk Southern and is expected to formally participate in the Surface Transportation Board's regulatory review (CTFN).
- CSX CEO Joe Hinrichs was dismissed after failing to engage with Union Pacific's informal merger approach. This ultimately led to Union Pacific striking a deal with Norfolk Southern (Semafor).
- President Trump has publicly expressed support for Union Pacific's $72 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern as the deal seeks regulatory approval (Bloomberg).
Valuation Changes
- The Fair Value Estimate has decreased slightly, moving from $260.58 to $260.40 per share.
- The Discount Rate has risen marginally from 8.28% to 8.41%, reflecting a minor increase in the perceived risk profile.
- The Revenue Growth Projection has edged lower, from 8.86% previously to 8.77% in the latest update.
- The Net Profit Margin is essentially flat, dipping very slightly from 30.12% to 30.00%.
- The Future P/E Ratio has increased modestly, from 19.25x to 19.61x, suggesting a small uptick in forward earnings expectations.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.