Uber (UBER): Assessing Valuation Following Recent Share Price Decline

Uber Technologies (UBER) shares have slid about 11% over the past month, catching the eye of investors wondering what comes next. Despite the recent dip, year-to-date performance remains positive for the ride-hailing giant.

See our latest analysis for Uber Technologies.

Uber’s 1-day share price return is up 0.61%, though short-term momentum has faded following a 7-day dip of 8.5% and a 30-day slide of nearly 11%. Still, the stock’s 32.8% year-to-date share price return and a stellar 3-year total shareholder return of 194% suggest long-term strength remains the bigger story here, even with the latest pullback.

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But with shares now trading roughly 32% below the latest analyst price target and about 50% below some intrinsic value estimates, some investors may be questioning whether Uber’s recent pullback is a chance to buy in before the next increase, or if the growth story is already reflected in the price.

Most Popular Narrative: 11.8% Overvalued

With Uber’s last close at $83.87, the most prominent narrative sees the company’s fair value at just $75, casting fresh scrutiny on recent bullish sentiment. This comparison raises questions about whether growth expectations already run too hot, according to the narrative by YasserSakuragi.

Future Earnings / P-E Projection (growth stock)

2030 Revenue Projection: $65-70B

2030 EBITDA: $14-15B (22% margin with autonomous vehicle benefits)

Fair Value Range: $90-135B market cap

Current Market Cap: $192B (significantly overvalued)

Target Entry Price: $65-75 per share (vs current ~$95)

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what assumptions drive this cautious outlook? There is a surprising combination of future profit optimism and valuation friction. The full narrative reveals how ambitious growth projections collide with a skeptical market cap filter. Peek inside the breakdown that is stirring debate among Uber’s most attentive followers.

Result: Fair Value of $75 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, if Uber delivers sustained profitability or if autonomous vehicles unlock new efficiencies, the case for overvaluation could rapidly change.

Find out about the key risks to this Uber Technologies narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Points to Opportunity

While the popular narrative places Uber's fair value at $75, our DCF model suggests a far more optimistic picture. By projecting future cash flows, the SWS DCF model estimates Uber’s fair value at $168.24, which may indicate the shares are undervalued at current prices. Which method best captures Uber’s true potential?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Build Your Own Uber Technologies Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dig into the numbers yourself, it only takes a few minutes to craft your own view. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Uber Technologies research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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