Earnings Beat: FedEx Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

A week ago, FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 2.7% to hit US$22b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$3.46, some 8.1% above whatthe analysts had expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following the latest results, FedEx's 24 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$91.1b in 2026. This would be an okay 2.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 3.6% to US$16.81 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$88.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$17.36 in 2026. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest results. Although there was a an okay to revenue, the consensus also made a minor downgrade to its earnings per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for FedEx

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$265, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on FedEx, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$320 and the most bearish at US$200 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting FedEx's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 3.8% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.0% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 3.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that FedEx is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for FedEx. They also upgraded their revenue forecasts, although the latest estimates suggest that FedEx will grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$265, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple FedEx analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for FedEx that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.