Expeditors (EXPD) Valuation Check After Strong Year-to-Date Share Price Rally

Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) has quietly delivered strong gains this year, with the stock up about 39% year to date and roughly 27% over the past 3 months, outpacing many logistics peers.

See our latest analysis for Expeditors International of Washington.

The latest move to around $152 per share caps a steady run, with a near 10% 1 month share price return adding to an already strong year of building momentum.

If you want to see what other logistics-like trends are playing out, this could be a good moment to scan fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for fresh opportunities.

With shares near record highs and trading at a premium to analyst targets, investors now face a tougher call: is Expeditors still mispriced relative to its long term fundamentals, or is future growth already fully reflected?

Price-to-Earnings of 24.2x: Is it justified?

On a price-to-earnings basis, Expeditors looks expensive at the last close of $152.87, with the market paying a premium versus peers for each dollar of earnings.

The price-to-earnings ratio compares the current share price to the company’s per share earnings, making it a direct snapshot of how optimistically investors are valuing today’s profit stream.

With Expeditors on 24.2x earnings compared to a 19.4x peer average and 16x for the broader global logistics industry, investors appear to be pricing in stronger quality or resilience than headline growth forecasts alone would suggest. Versus the estimated Fair Price-to-Earnings Ratio of 13.9x, that premium looks even more pronounced and highlights how far sentiment has run ahead of that fair ratio anchor. The market could ultimately gravitate back toward that level.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Expeditors International of Washington

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 24.2x (OVERVALUED)

However, risks remain, including a potential normalization of freight rates and weaker global trade volumes, both of which could pressure margins and reset investor expectations.

Find out about the key risks to this Expeditors International of Washington narrative.

Another View: What Does Our DCF Say?

While the price-to-earnings ratio suggests Expeditors is richly valued, our DCF model paints a softer picture, with fair value at about $144.53 versus the $152.87 share price. That implies only a modest premium, raising the question: is this really froth or just a narrow safety margin?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Expeditors International of Washington for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 914 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Expeditors International of Washington Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or simply prefer to run the checks yourself, you can build a personalized view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Expeditors International of Washington research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Do not stop at just one opportunity. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to spot high conviction stocks before the crowd and sharpen your next move.

• Capture potential multibagger momentum by scanning these 3623 penny stocks with strong financials that pair tiny market caps with surprisingly solid fundamentals.
• Position yourself for the next wave of innovation by targeting these 29 healthcare AI stocks that merge medical breakthroughs with cutting edge algorithms.
• Strengthen your income stream by filtering for these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that combine attractive payouts with sustainable balance sheets.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com