Can Expeditors Stock Keep Rising After 23% Surge Amid Global Supply Chain Shifts?

• Curious if Expeditors International of Washington is undervalued, overhyped, or hiding opportunity in plain sight? You are not alone. Let’s take a closer look at what’s been driving interest in this logistics powerhouse.
• Shares have been on a strong run lately, jumping 5.9% in the last week and an impressive 23.2% over the past month. This has pushed year-to-date gains up to 33.9%.
• Recent headlines have highlighted shifting global supply chains and renewed investor attention on logistics firms, with Expeditors International of Washington frequently mentioned as a key player benefiting from evolving trade dynamics. These news events have fueled optimism about future growth and put a spotlight on how the company is adapting to industry changes.
• Even with all the buzz, the company currently scores 2 out of 6 on our value check, suggesting room for a more nuanced look at how the market is pricing its prospects. Keep reading as we explore different valuation approaches. Stick around for an even more insightful way to gauge fair value at the end of the article.

Expeditors International of Washington scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Expeditors International of Washington Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates the intrinsic value of a company by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back to their present value. This approach aims to capture the real economic value today of cash a business is expected to generate in the future.

For Expeditors International of Washington, the current Free Cash Flow over the last twelve months stands at $924 million. Looking ahead, analysts forecast an increase in free cash flow, with projections reaching $1.08 billion by 2027. Simply Wall St extends these forecasts and estimates that free cash flow could climb further to around $1.5 billion by 2035, using moderate growth rates each year after 2027.

Based on these cash flow projections and the discounts applied to account for time and risk, the estimated intrinsic value per share comes out to $187.54. Compared to the current market price, this calculation suggests the stock is trading at a 21.4% discount to its DCF-based fair value. This indicates it may be undervalued at the moment.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Expeditors International of Washington is undervalued by 21.4%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 928 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Expeditors International of Washington.

Approach 2: Expeditors International of Washington Price vs Earnings

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a widely used valuation measure for profitable companies like Expeditors International of Washington. It provides a snapshot of how much investors are willing to pay for a dollar of current earnings, making it a sensible starting point for comparing similar businesses.

What constitutes a “fair” PE depends on both growth expectations and risk. Investors typically pay a higher multiple for companies with strong, reliable earnings growth or lower perceived risk, while slower-growing or riskier firms see lower ratios. In this case, Expeditors International of Washington has a current PE of 23.4x.

To put this in perspective, the Logistics industry average PE stands at 16.0x, while the company’s peers trade at an average of 18.8x. On the surface, Expeditors International of Washington appears to trade at a premium to both its sector and immediate competitors.

This is where Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” comes in. The Fair Ratio, currently at 13.4x for Expeditors International of Washington, reflects how factors like growth prospects, profit margins, market cap, and specific company risks stack up together for a more tailored benchmark. By going beyond plain peer or industry averages, the Fair Ratio helps account for what really matters to long-term value.

Comparing Expeditors International of Washington’s PE of 23.4x to the Fair Ratio of 13.4x suggests that the shares are trading well above what is justified by fundamentals and company-specific traits, at least according to this methodology.

Result: OVERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1440 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Expeditors International of Washington Narrative

Earlier we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your unique perspective on a company, combining your expectations for its future growth, earnings, and margins into a story that underpins your own fair value estimates.

Unlike traditional metrics, Narratives connect what’s happening in the real world to financial forecasts. This allows you to translate Expeditors International of Washington’s company story into projected numbers and a personalized fair value. Best of all, creating, reviewing, and comparing Narratives is easy and accessible through Simply Wall St’s Community page, which is used by millions of investors globally.

Narratives help you decide when the current share price aligns with your Fair Value estimate by letting you make direct comparisons. As news or earnings reports are released, Narratives update dynamically, ensuring your perspective stays relevant as markets evolve.

For example, some investors currently forecast a high fair value for Expeditors International of Washington at $225, believing in continued supply chain demand, while others set a low fair value at $150, anticipating margin pressures. This demonstrates how diverse Narratives can shape investment decisions.

Do you think there's more to the story for Expeditors International of Washington? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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