Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NYSE:BEST using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
NYSE:BEST DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
BEST's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
BEST's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
BEST's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
BEST's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
BEST's revenue is expected to grow by 18.5% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
BEST's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
0/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Shao-Ning Chou, also known as Johnny has been Chief Executive Officer of BEST Inc. since 2007. Mr. Chou is the Founder of BEST Inc. He served as Chief Executive Officer of BEST Inc. He served as a Global Vice President and Greater China president of Google with responsibility for Google's sales and marketing in Greater China from 2005 to 2006. He served as Chief Operating Officer of China Operations at UTStarcom Holdings Corp. since January 1999. From 1996 to 2005, Mr. Chou served as President of UTStarcom China with responsibility for China operations. Mr. Chou served as Senior Vice President of UTStarcom Holdings Corp. since September 2001 and served as its Executive Vice President. From March 1997 to December 1998, he served as Vice President of China Operations and from February 1996 to March 1997, he served as Vice President of Engineering at UTStarcom Inc. From March 1995 to June 1996, he was Director of Engineering for wireless systems and software with Lucent Technologies Microelectronics IC group. From April 1993 to March 1995, he was a Technical Manager for the Global Wireless product group with AT&T consumer products where he led multiple development teams for handset and wireless personal base station products. From 1986 to 1996, Mr. Chou served as a director of wireless software and system development with AT&T Bell Laboratory. From February 1985 to April 1993, Mr. Chou was team leader and a member of the technical staff for advanced digital communication research in AT&T Bell Laboratories where he led and engaged in data communication equipment and multimedia product development. He has been Chairman of BEST Inc. since 2007 and serves as its Director. Mr. Chou holds a B.S. in Electrical Engineering from City College of New York, an M.S. in Engineering from Princeton University and an M.B.A. from the State University of New Jersey, Rutgers. Mr. Chou studied computer science at Fudan University from 1978 to 1980.
Insufficient data for Johnny to compare compensation growth.
Insufficient data for Johnny to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in United States of America.
Chairman & CEO
Chief Accounting Officer
Chief Investment & Strategy Officer and Director
Senior Vice President of Human Resources & Administration
Senior VP & GM of Supply Chain Management Service Line
Senior VP & GM of Express Service Line
Senior VP & GM of Store Service Line
Senior VP & GM of Global Service Line
Senior VP of Engineering & GM of Cloud Service Line
Senior VP & GM of freight service line
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the BEST board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Those Who Purchased BEST (NYSE:BEST) Shares A Year Ago Have A 48% Loss To Show For It
When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. … Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth. … Unfortunately that wasn't good enough to stop the share price dropping 48%.
BEST Inc. operates as a smart supply chain service provider in the People's Republic of China. Its proprietary technology platform enables its ecosystem participants to operate their businesses through various SaaS-based applications. The company applies its technologies to a range of applications, such as network and route optimization, swap bodies, sorting line automation, smart warehouses, and store management. It offers integrated services and solutions across the supply chain, including warehouse management, order fulfillment, express delivery, freight, and other services for multinational and corporate customers, as well as small and medium enterprises. The company also provides express delivery services; and door-to-door integrated cross-border supply chain services to and from China, including international express, less-than-truckload, fulfillment, reverse logistics, and freight forwarding through its network, and transportation and warehouse partners. In addition, it operates real-time bidding platform to source truckload capacity from independent transportation service providers and agents; and offers online merchandise sourcing and store management services for convenience stores, as well as B2C services, such as parcel pick-up and drop-off, and bill payment services. Further, BEST Inc. provides various value-added services, including customized financial services, including fleet and equipment finance leases; and centralized sourcing of products and services, such as bulk procurement of trucks and accessories. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Simply Wall Street Pty Ltd (ACN 600 056 611), is a Corporate Authorised Representative (Authorised Representative Number: 467183) of Sanlam Private Wealth Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 337927). Any advice contained in this website is general advice only and has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice. Please read our Financial Services Guide before deciding whether to obtain financial services from us.