United Airlines (UAL): Assessing Valuation After Q3 2025 Revenue Miss and Operational Setback

United Airlines (UAL) shares slipped following its Q3 2025 earnings report, which revealed a revenue miss and some weakening in operational performance. The news prompted investors to reassess near-term expectations for the carrier.

See our latest analysis for United Airlines Holdings.

United Airlines’ share price has oscillated in recent months, most notably dropping over 5% in a single day after its recent earnings miss, as investors recalibrated future growth expectations. Still, the one-year total shareholder return stands at a resilient 16.9%. The company’s three- and five-year total returns of 121% and 171% show that long-term shareholders have done exceptionally well, even as short-term momentum faces some headwinds.

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With long-term returns standing strong and analysts projecting notable upside, investors are left to wonder: Is United Airlines undervalued after its latest stumble, or has the market already factored in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 23.7% Undervalued

Compared to the last close price of $94.04, the narrative’s fair value estimate of $123.20 suggests significant upside. The stage is set for a deeper look at what is driving this bullish outlook.

Management’s strategies to target higher incremental margins, especially through product de-commoditization and advancements in technology-driven merchandising, are viewed as meaningful drivers for sustained revenue and margin growth.

Read the complete narrative.

What is fueling this double-digit discount? Only insiders know the full story, but the model banks on bigger margins, breakthrough digital plays, and a powerful new pricing formula. Discover which ambitious growth assumptions are being made behind the scenes and test if they add up.

Result: Fair Value of $123.20 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent shifts in travel demand and United's exposure to rising costs could quickly undermine the case for ongoing margin expansion and valuation upside.

Find out about the key risks to this United Airlines Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own United Airlines Holdings Narrative

If you’d rather challenge consensus or add your own spin to the story, dive into the available data and shape your unique view in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your United Airlines Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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