Results: ArcBest Corporation Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that ArcBest Corporation (NASDAQ:ARCB) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.9% to US$66.99 in the past week. Revenues were US$1.0b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$1.72, an impressive 34% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering ArcBest are now predicting revenues of US$4.16b in 2026. If met, this would reflect an okay 3.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 20% to US$5.18. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.22b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.82 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

View our latest analysis for ArcBest

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$85.58, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on ArcBest, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$120 and the most bearish at US$67.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that ArcBest's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 5.0% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than ArcBest.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for ArcBest. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ArcBest's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$85.58, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ArcBest going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for ArcBest that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.