Allegiant Travel (ALGT): Valuation Insights Following Q3 2025 Traffic Growth and Major Debt Repayment

Allegiant Travel (ALGT) just released its preliminary passenger numbers for September and the third quarter of 2025, revealing an increase in travelers and capacity compared to last year, even as its load factor dipped slightly.

See our latest analysis for Allegiant Travel.

Allegiant Travel’s latest passenger gains and hefty debt repayments come at an interesting time for the stock. After tumbling earlier in the year, the share price has rebounded 28% over the past 90 days, though it still shows a year-to-date share price return of -29.5%. Meanwhile, total shareholder return over the past year has managed to stay positive at 1.7%, hinting that recent momentum may be building as investor sentiment responds to more disciplined financial management and steady operational growth.

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With shares still well below last year's highs but experiencing a recent upswing, the key question is whether Allegiant Travel is a bargain at these levels or if the market has already factored in all the good news ahead.

Most Popular Narrative: 4.3% Undervalued

Allegiant Travel’s last close price sits just below the widely followed narrative’s fair value of $67.67. Analysts now describe the stock as modestly undervalued. This outlook relies on a range of operational improvements and market tailwinds that could reshape the company’s earnings trajectory.

Allegiant's focus on value-oriented travel and its large share of repeat customers position it well to benefit as Millennials and Gen Z enter their prime earning years. These groups increasingly prioritize experiences and budget-conscious travel, likely supporting sustained or increased passenger volumes and airline revenues into the future.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious which financial assumptions pushed Allegiant’s fair value above the current share price? This narrative projects rapid profit growth, more efficient fleets, and a valuation multiple lower than much of the industry. Find out what’s fueling analyst confidence.

Result: Fair Value of $67.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing weak leisure demand or setbacks in executing fleet modernization could quickly shift Allegiant’s story off course, despite recent progress.

Find out about the key risks to this Allegiant Travel narrative.

Build Your Own Allegiant Travel Narrative

If you have your own perspective or want to see the full picture firsthand, dive into the data and build your own narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Allegiant Travel research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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