Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for OTCPK:SPRS using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
OTCPK:SPRS DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Surge Components's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Surge Components's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Surge Components's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Surge Components's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is not considered high growth.
Unable to determine if Surge Components is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Surge Components's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
6/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
A company's financial position is much like your own financial position,
it includes everything you own
The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up
Surge Components's finances.
The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Surge Components is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
Surge Components's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of
Surge Components's finances. If any of them are yellow this
indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
High level of physical assets or inventory.
Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 369.8x debt.
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.
The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to
see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and
whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Ira Levy has been the Chief Executive Officer and the President at Surge Components, Inc. since November 1981 and has been its Chief Financial Officer since March 2010. From 1976 to 1981, Mr. Levy was employed by Capar Components Corp., an importer and supplier of capacitor and resistor products. He served as the Chief Executive Officer of Surge Components, Inc. during all of Fiscal 1998, Fiscal 1999 and until February 2000 and became Chief Executive Officer again in July 2001. Mr. Levy has been the Chairman and Director of Surge Components, Inc. since November 1981. Mr. Levy studied Business Management at Hofstra University.
Ira's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
Ira's remuneration is about average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the Surge Components board of directors is over 10 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced board.
Surge Components, Inc. supplies electronic products and components. The company offers capacitors, which are electrical energy storage devices; and discrete components, such as semiconductor rectifiers, transistors, diodes, and circuit protection devices, as well as audible components, including audible transducers, buzzers, speakers, microphones, resonators, alarms, chimes, filters, and discriminators, as well as fuses, printed circuit boards, and switches. Its products are used in the electronic circuitry of various products, including automobiles, telecomm, audio, cellular telephones, computers, consumer electronics, garage door openers, household appliances, power supplies, and security equipment. The company sells its products to original equipment manufacturers and distributors through independent sales representatives or organizations in the United States, Canada, China and other Asian countries, South America, and Europe. Surge Components, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Deer Park, New York.
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