Diebold Nixdorf (DBD): Revisiting Valuation After New Autogrill Expansion and Capital Bank ATM Software Wins

Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) just caught investors attention after landing new wins on both the retail and banking fronts, expanding its Autogrill partnership in Italy and rolling out advanced ATM software with Capital Bank in Jordan.

See our latest analysis for Diebold Nixdorf.

Those wins land against a backdrop of strong momentum, with a 30 day share price return of 11.1 percent and a 90 day share price return of 19.4 percent. This has helped lift the stock to 68.57 dollars and contributed to a 58.4 percent total shareholder return over the past year.

If you like how Diebold Nixdorf is repositioning around software and services, it might be worth scanning high growth tech and AI stocks to spot other tech names riding similar structural trends.

Yet with earnings estimates being revised higher and the share price already up sharply this year, investors now face a tougher call: is Diebold Nixdorf still trading at a discount, or is future growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 13.2% Undervalued

With the narrative pointing to a fair value around 79 dollars against a 68.57 dollars close, the gap rests on ambitious growth and margin upgrades.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $312.7 million (and earnings per share of $5.35) by about September 2028, up from $-12.9 million today. In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 10.4x on those 2028 earnings, up from -172.5x today.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest revenue growth, a sharp profit margin reset, and shrinking share count combine into that upside case. Want to see the full earnings math behind it.

Result: Fair Value of $79 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this upside could be derailed if cash usage shrinks faster than expected or if Diebold’s shift toward higher margin software and services stalls.

Find out about the key risks to this Diebold Nixdorf narrative.

Another Lens On Value

Looked at through earnings, Diebold Nixdorf is less of a clear bargain. Its P/E of 48.6 times is higher than the global tech average of 22.6 times and above its 40.8 times fair ratio, hinting that optimism is already baked into the price.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Diebold Nixdorf Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Diebold Nixdorf research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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