Super Micro (SMCI): Valuation Check After New Liquid‑Cooled NVIDIA Blackwell AI Systems and Raised Guidance

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) just doubled down on AI infrastructure, rolling out new liquid cooled NVIDIA Blackwell systems while backing that tech push with over $13 billion in firm orders and higher long term revenue guidance.

See our latest analysis for Super Micro Computer.

Despite the upgraded AI roadmap, SMCI’s share price return has cooled recently, with double digit declines over the past month and quarter. However, three and five year total shareholder returns remain exceptionally strong, suggesting momentum is pausing rather than broken.

If Super Micro’s AI build out has you rethinking the broader opportunity set, this could be a good moment to scan high growth tech and AI stocks for other scalable infrastructure and chip exposed names.

With shares now trading at a steep discount to analyst targets despite firm Blackwell orders and higher long term guidance, is SMCI quietly undervalued, or is the market already baking in every ounce of future AI growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 39.5% Undervalued

With the most followed narrative putting fair value well above Super Micro Computer's last close, the gap between modelled upside and current pricing is striking.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $50.062 for Super Micro Computer based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $93.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $15.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a fast climbing revenue runway, expanding profit base and a lower future earnings multiple can still justify a higher valuation anchor? The full narrative explains the growth curve, margin reset and discount rate assumptions that turn those projected earnings into today’s implied fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $48.53 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, concentrated exposure to a handful of large customers and intensifying AI server competition could quickly challenge the margin and growth assumptions behind this valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this Super Micro Computer narrative.

Build Your Own Super Micro Computer Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions with your own inputs, you can build a fresh view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Super Micro Computer research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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