Should MicroVision’s New Secured Convertible Notes and Refinancing Strategy Require Action From MicroVision (MVIS) Investors?

• In February 2026, MicroVision announced a series of senior secured zero-coupon convertible notes totaling US$43.0 million, including an exchange offer and new issuance of notes due March 1, 2028, alongside a business update and fireside chat on its lidar strategy.
• This refinancing shifts near-term repayment obligations and may give MicroVision more flexibility to pursue integration of recent lidar acquisitions and its broader technology roadmap.
• Next, we’ll examine how MicroVision’s new secured convertible notes and balance sheet reshaping could influence its existing investment narrative.

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MicroVision Investment Narrative Recap

To own MicroVision today, you have to believe that its lidar portfolio can eventually scale from very small current revenue into meaningful automotive, industrial and defense programs. The new US$43.0 million secured zero coupon convertible notes ease nearer term funding pressure, but they do not remove the central near term catalyst, which is converting RFQs and pilots into real orders, or the key risk that commercialization remains slow while losses and cash burn continue.

The most relevant recent announcement alongside the refinancing is MicroVision’s upcoming Q4 2025 earnings release on March 4, 2026. With 2025 revenue still very modest and the company loss making, any update on cash burn, order intake and timing for MOVIA S and LCAS deployments will matter more in the short term than the balance sheet reshaping itself, because it will help clarify whether the extra financial flexibility is being matched by commercial progress.

However, investors should also be aware that if commercialization lags and cash burn stays near US$16.5 million per quarter, the risk of further dilution...

Read the full narrative on MicroVision (it's free!)

MicroVision's narrative projects $67.9 million revenue and $5.9 million earnings by 2029. This requires 195.3% yearly revenue growth and a $94.3 million earnings increase from $-88.4 million today.

Uncover how MicroVision's forecasts yield a $2.50 fair value, a 197% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The most bearish analysts were already assuming very fast revenue growth of about 148 percent per year but still no profits by 2029, so their more cautious view on commercialization timing and potential dilution could look even more relevant or too harsh once the impact of MicroVision’s new debt structure and your chosen risk around extended program timelines is clearer.

Explore 11 other fair value estimates on MicroVision - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

The Verdict Is Yours

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your MicroVision research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free MicroVision research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate MicroVision's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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