Lumentum Holdings Inc.

NasdaqGS:LITE Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.8b

Lumentum Holdings Valuation

Is LITE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LITE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LITE ($85.08) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($263.12)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LITE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LITE?

Key metric: As LITE is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for LITE. This is calculated by dividing LITE's market cap by their current revenue.
What is LITE's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio4.2x
SalesUS$1.38b
Market CapUS$5.84b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does LITE's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for LITE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.5x
VIAV Viavi Solutions
2.3x5.5%US$2.3b
JNPR Juniper Networks
2.4x4.1%US$12.3b
CIEN Ciena
3.1x8.5%US$12.4b
EXTR Extreme Networks
2.3x8.7%US$2.3b
LITE Lumentum Holdings
4.2x19.5%US$5.8b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: LITE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.2x) compared to the peer average (3.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does LITE's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Communications Industry?

16 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
COMM CommScope Holding Company
0.2x-2.1%US$1.20b
VSAT Viasat
0.2x1.7%US$1.13b
CMTL Comtech Telecommunications
0.2x4.3%US$106.52m
TESS TESSCO Technologies
0.2xn/aUS$83.30m
LITE 4.2xIndustry Avg. 1.2xNo. of Companies16PS012345+
16 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: LITE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.2x) compared to the US Communications industry average (1.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LITE's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LITE PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio4.2x
Fair PS Ratio1.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: LITE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LITE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$85.08
US$90.38
+6.2%
17.8%US$115.00US$60.00n/a16
Dec ’25US$86.97
US$86.56
-0.5%
22.7%US$115.00US$51.00n/a16
Nov ’25US$65.35
US$60.50
-7.4%
18.2%US$80.00US$40.00n/a16
Oct ’25US$61.49
US$59.13
-3.8%
18.4%US$80.00US$40.00n/a16
Sep ’25US$57.61
US$59.13
+2.6%
18.4%US$80.00US$40.00n/a16
Aug ’25US$48.01
US$55.38
+15.3%
20.7%US$80.00US$38.00n/a16
Jul ’25US$51.43
US$54.13
+5.2%
19.6%US$80.00US$38.00n/a16
Jun ’25US$43.50
US$54.13
+24.4%
19.6%US$80.00US$38.00n/a16
May ’25US$43.52
US$54.96
+26.3%
18.9%US$80.00US$40.00n/a17
Apr ’25US$48.15
US$55.96
+16.2%
19.6%US$80.00US$40.00n/a17
Mar ’25US$50.49
US$55.58
+10.1%
19.8%US$80.00US$40.00n/a17
Feb ’25US$56.15
US$54.49
-3.0%
16.1%US$69.30US$40.00n/a17
Jan ’25US$52.42
US$52.25
-0.3%
15.4%US$69.30US$40.00n/a17
Dec ’24US$44.25
US$49.69
+12.3%
12.4%US$60.00US$40.00US$86.9716
Nov ’24US$38.72
US$50.68
+30.9%
14.6%US$69.30US$40.00US$65.3516
Oct ’24US$45.18
US$53.74
+19.0%
12.6%US$64.00US$40.00US$61.4916
Sep ’24US$53.89
US$53.74
-0.3%
12.6%US$64.00US$40.00US$57.6116
Aug ’24US$51.44
US$55.06
+7.0%
14.5%US$67.00US$40.00US$48.0116
Jul ’24US$56.73
US$54.84
-3.3%
15.1%US$67.00US$40.00US$51.4316
Jun ’24US$52.22
US$53.66
+2.8%
14.5%US$65.50US$40.00US$43.5016
May ’24US$48.30
US$59.22
+22.6%
18.2%US$80.00US$40.00US$43.5216
Apr ’24US$54.01
US$70.90
+31.3%
10.6%US$84.00US$57.00US$48.1515
Mar ’24US$52.84
US$71.19
+34.7%
10.3%US$84.00US$57.00US$50.4916
Feb ’24US$60.80
US$72.59
+19.4%
11.9%US$90.00US$60.00US$56.1516
Jan ’24US$52.17
US$75.25
+44.2%
13.8%US$97.00US$62.00US$52.4216
Dec ’23US$54.35
US$78.00
+43.5%
11.8%US$97.00US$62.00US$44.2515

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 01:37
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/28
Annual Earnings2024/06/29

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Lumentum Holdings Inc. is covered by 27 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Thomas O'MalleyBarclays
Karl AckermanBNP Paribas Exane