Lumentum Holdings Inc.

NasdaqGS:LITE Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.7b

Lumentum Holdings Valuation

Is LITE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LITE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LITE ($82.48) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($267.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LITE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LITE?

Key metric: As LITE is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for LITE. This is calculated by dividing LITE's market cap by their current revenue.
What is LITE's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio4.1x
SalesUS$1.38b
Market CapUS$5.67b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does LITE's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for LITE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average3x
CIEN Ciena
2.4x5.9%US$9.7b
VIAV Viavi Solutions
2.2x5.5%US$2.2b
JNPR Juniper Networks
2.3x3.5%US$11.6b
FFIV F5
5x4.3%US$14.0b
LITE Lumentum Holdings
4.1x19.6%US$5.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: LITE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.1x) compared to the peer average (3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does LITE's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Communications Industry?

13 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
COMM CommScope Holding Company
0.2x-0.08%US$977.93m
VSAT Viasat
0.2x1.8%US$876.93m
CMTL Comtech Telecommunications
0.2x4.3%US$84.44m
TESS TESSCO Technologies
0.2xn/aUS$83.30m
LITE 4.1xIndustry Avg. 1.1xNo. of Companies13PS012345+
13 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: LITE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.1x) compared to the US Communications industry average (1.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LITE's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LITE PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio4.1x
Fair PS Ratio1.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: LITE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LITE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$82.48
US$86.94
+5.4%
22.9%US$115.00US$51.00n/a16
Nov ’25US$65.35
US$60.50
-7.4%
18.2%US$80.00US$40.00n/a16
Oct ’25US$61.49
US$59.13
-3.8%
18.4%US$80.00US$40.00n/a16
Sep ’25US$57.61
US$59.13
+2.6%
18.4%US$80.00US$40.00n/a16
Aug ’25US$48.01
US$55.38
+15.3%
20.7%US$80.00US$38.00n/a16
Jul ’25US$51.43
US$54.13
+5.2%
19.6%US$80.00US$38.00n/a16
Jun ’25US$43.50
US$54.13
+24.4%
19.6%US$80.00US$38.00n/a16
May ’25US$43.52
US$54.96
+26.3%
18.9%US$80.00US$40.00n/a17
Apr ’25US$48.15
US$55.96
+16.2%
19.6%US$80.00US$40.00n/a17
Mar ’25US$50.49
US$55.58
+10.1%
19.8%US$80.00US$40.00n/a17
Feb ’25US$56.15
US$54.49
-3.0%
16.1%US$69.30US$40.00n/a17
Jan ’25US$52.42
US$52.25
-0.3%
15.4%US$69.30US$40.00n/a17
Dec ’24US$44.25
US$49.69
+12.3%
12.4%US$60.00US$40.00n/a16
Nov ’24US$38.72
US$50.68
+30.9%
14.6%US$69.30US$40.00US$65.3516
Oct ’24US$45.18
US$53.74
+19.0%
12.6%US$64.00US$40.00US$61.4916
Sep ’24US$53.89
US$53.74
-0.3%
12.6%US$64.00US$40.00US$57.6116
Aug ’24US$51.44
US$55.06
+7.0%
14.5%US$67.00US$40.00US$48.0116
Jul ’24US$56.73
US$54.84
-3.3%
15.1%US$67.00US$40.00US$51.4316
Jun ’24US$52.22
US$53.66
+2.8%
14.5%US$65.50US$40.00US$43.5016
May ’24US$48.30
US$59.22
+22.6%
18.2%US$80.00US$40.00US$43.5216
Apr ’24US$54.01
US$70.90
+31.3%
10.6%US$84.00US$57.00US$48.1515
Mar ’24US$52.84
US$71.19
+34.7%
10.3%US$84.00US$57.00US$50.4916
Feb ’24US$60.80
US$72.59
+19.4%
11.9%US$90.00US$60.00US$56.1516
Jan ’24US$52.17
US$75.25
+44.2%
13.8%US$97.00US$62.00US$52.4216
Dec ’23US$54.35
US$78.00
+43.5%
11.8%US$97.00US$62.00US$44.2515
Nov ’23US$75.42
US$108.36
+43.7%
12.7%US$125.00US$80.00US$38.7214

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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