Itron (ITRI): Evaluating Valuation After Recent 30% Share Price Drop

Itron (ITRI) shares have faced some pressure lately, with the stock dropping nearly 30% over the past month. Investors are keeping a close watch for catalysts or updates that could impact the company’s outlook in the coming quarters.

See our latest analysis for Itron.

After a long stretch of solid gains, Itron’s recent 30% slide in the past month stands out against its robust longer-term performance, including a 79% total shareholder return over the past three years. While momentum has faded lately, investors appear to be reassessing risks and growth expectations as fresh catalysts are being priced in.

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With shares trading nearly 50% below the average analyst price target and significant long-term gains still fresh, the key question now is whether Itron is a bargain at current levels or if the market has caught up to future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 32.9% Undervalued

Itron's fair value is pegged at $140.40 according to the leading narrative, which stands well above the latest closing price of $94.21. The notable gap suggests conviction that the market is missing key drivers for the company’s worth and future potential.

Ongoing industry-wide digitalization and increased adoption of IoT by utilities are driving higher uptake of Itron's Outcomes (software and analytics) offerings, which are higher margin and boost recurring revenue, supporting continued net margin and earnings expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

What’s fueling this bold outlook? The secret sauce isn’t just more revenue; it’s a margin leap, soaring future earnings, and a valuation multiple that rises even as growth shifts. Want to see which projections are pushing Itron’s narrative to a premium?

Result: Fair Value of $140.40 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent regulatory delays and ongoing utility budget constraints may further dampen revenue momentum. This raises questions about the sustainability of current margin gains.

Find out about the key risks to this Itron narrative.

Build Your Own Itron Narrative

If you see the story differently or want a hands-on look at the numbers, you can build your own narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Itron research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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