Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for OTCPK:STWR.Y using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
OTCPK:STWR.Y DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Software's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a moderate discount (< 20%).
Software's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Software's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Software's earnings are expected to grow by 1.2% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Software's revenue is expected to grow by 3.6% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Software's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
3/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Sanjay Brahmawar has been Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Management Board of Software AG, Inc. and Software Aktiengesellschaft since August 1, 2018. Mr. Brahmawar serves as General Manager Global Revenue of IBM Watson Internet of Things at Munich, Germany. Mr. Brahmawar is responsible for global software sales with a focus on data analysis and artificial intelligence. Previously, he served as General Manager at IBM Consulting Services in London, where he was responsible for the business in the European industrial sector (oil and gas, automotive, aerospace, electronics and engineering). He has repeatedly and impressively demonstrated that he can increase business both in terms of sales and margin. He has an international and multicultural background with experience in Germany, England, Holland, Belgium, Finland and India. He earned his bachelor’s degree in civil engineering from Delhi College of Engineering and M.B.A. in Finance and Marketing from University of Leeds.
Insufficient data for Sanjay to compare compensation growth.
Insufficient data for Sanjay to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The average tenure for the Software management team is less than 2 years, this suggests a new team.
CFO & Member of the Management Board
Chief Product Officer & Member of Mgmt. Board
Chairman of the Management Board & CEO
Chief Revenue Officer & Member of the Executive Board
Chief Technology Officer
Senior VP & Head of Investor Relations
Senior Vice President of Global Legal
Senior Vice President of Corporate Communications
Chief Marketing Officer
Senior Vice President of Global HR
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the Software board of directors is about average.
Software Aktiengesellschaft provides software development, licensing, and maintenance; and information (IT) services worldwide. It operates through three segments: Digital Business Platform, Adabas & Natural, and Consulting. The company offers Adabas & Natural, a transaction processing platform that enables digital enterprises to leverage core systems in various ways; Alfabet for use in IT planning and portfolio management, as well as enterprise architecture management; Apama, a platform for streaming analytics and intelligent automated actions on fast-moving big data; and Architecture for Integrated Information Systems, a platform that makes processes transparent, controlled, manageable, and agile. It also provides cloud-based platform-as-a-service suite, such as CONNX that provides secure, and real-time read/write SQL data access and integration; Cumulocity, which offers Internet of things (IoT) connectivity for networked digital devices and sensors through a cloud-hosted IoT device management and application enablement platform; Terracotta, a platform that enables digital enterprises to access and store large volumes of data in-memory, as well as enhance system performance; webMethods, which enables customers to integrate systems, partners, data, devices, and software as a service applications; and Zementis that enables predictive analytics with artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities. Further, the company provides digital transformation consulting, platform consulting, performance.ready content, platform rapid innovation methodology, training, and support services. It offers its products and services for customers in banking and securities, communication and media, education, energy and natural resources, manufacturing, retail, transportation, healthcare, insurance, utilities, and government sectors. Software Aktiengesellschaft was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Darmstadt, Germany.
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