VTEX Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
VTEX is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 24.3% and 9.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 23.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 14.2% in 3 years.
Key information
24.3%
Earnings growth rate
23.54%
EPS growth rate
| IT earnings growth | 18.7% |
| Revenue growth rate | 9.2% |
| Future return on equity | 14.24% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 15 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 21
VTEX: Share Repurchases And Execution Progress Will Support Future Upside Potential
Narrative Update: VTEX Analyst Price Target Shift The analyst price target for VTEX has moved slightly higher to $6.01 from $6.00, with analysts pointing to updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rates, and a lower future P/E, alongside recent positive research actions including a $0.10 target increase at UBS and an upgrade to Outperform at $5 from Bradesco BBI. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a slight shift in tone, with bullish analysts fine tuning price targets and ratings around VTEX as they revisit assumptions on growth, margins, and valuation multiples.Analysis Article • May 15
We Think VTEX's (NYSE:VTEX) Robust Earnings Are Conservative
Investors were underwhelmed by the solid earnings posted by VTEX ( NYSE:VTEX ) recently. We did some digging and...
Narrative Update • Apr 29
VTEX: AI Roadmap And Rating Upgrade Will Reframe Long Term Equity Story
Analysts have reduced their VTEX price target by $0.08 to reflect updated fair value and discount rate assumptions, while also noting recent rating support from the Street as part of the rationale for the revised outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has added a more constructive tone to the VTEX story, with bullish analysts pointing to a clearer risk or reward setup and a refreshed view on fair value.
Narrative Update • Apr 15
VTEX: Share Repurchases And Profitability Focus Will Balance Weaker Growth Visibility
Analysts have adjusted the VTEX price target to $5, reflecting updated views on growth visibility and profitability after recent rating changes. Analyst Commentary Recent rating changes show a split in opinion on VTEX, with some backing the updated US$5 price target and others pointing to weaker visibility on future growth.Narrative Update • Apr 01
VTEX: Share Repurchases And Execution Progress Will Support Future Free Cash Flow
Analysts now set a $6.00 price target for VTEX, with the updated view reflecting a mix of more constructive opinions, such as the recent upgrade to Outperform with a $5.00 target, and cautious views citing weakening growth visibility. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Some analysts see enough progress in VTEX's execution to justify a move to an Outperform rating, even with a price target that sits below the current Street average at $5.00.Narrative Update • Mar 18
VTEX: Share Repurchases And Cost Discipline Will Support Future Free Cash Flow
Analysts have adjusted their fair value estimate for VTEX from $7.14 to $6.00. This reflects updated views on growth visibility and profitability after recent rating changes, including an upgrade to Outperform with a $5 price target from one firm and a downgrade to Neutral from another.
New Narrative • Mar 07
VTEX - A hidden Latin American growth opportunity?
Key Takeaways: VTEX is a multi-tenant SaaS provider of cloud-based digital commerce software, primarily serving large enterprise customers in Latin America through combining E-commerce software applications into one stack. The software space is a double edged sword in 2026.Narrative Update • Mar 04
VTEX: Cost Discipline And Buybacks Will Reframe Long Term Equity Story
Analysts have trimmed their VTEX price target to about $10.44 from roughly $10.91, as they factor in weaker growth visibility, slightly softer margin expectations, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple following recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent research indicates that some analysts are cautious on VTEX because of weaker growth visibility, softer margin assumptions, and a reduced future P/E multiple.Narrative Update • Feb 18
VTEX: Weaker Growth Visibility Will Create Long Term Upside Opportunity
Narrative Update on VTEX The analyst price target for VTEX has been reduced by $4 to $4, as analysts cite softer growth assumptions and weaker growth visibility, reflected in slightly lower revenue growth expectations and a modestly higher future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts are signaling that weaker growth visibility is starting to weigh more heavily on their views of VTEX, especially as they reassess what they are willing to pay for the stock given the revised assumptions.Narrative Update • Feb 04
VTEX: Share Repurchases And Cost Discipline Will Support Long Term Upside
Analysts trimmed their price target on VTEX by about US$1, reflecting slightly softer growth expectations after recent research highlighted weakening visibility in the company’s expansion trajectory. Analyst Commentary Recent research takes a more cautious stance on VTEX, with bearish analysts pointing to weaker visibility on the company’s growth path as a key reason for trimming expectations.Narrative Update • Jan 20
VTEX: Cost Discipline And Cash Returns Will Support Long Term Upside
Analysts have reduced their fair value estimate for VTEX from US$5.00 to US$4.00, citing weaker growth visibility highlighted in recent research and a slightly lower assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts are flagging weaker growth visibility as a key concern, which is feeding directly into more restrained valuation work on VTEX.Narrative Update • Jan 06
VTEX: Cost Discipline And Free Cash Flow Progress Will Reshape Equity Story
Analysts have trimmed their price expectations for VTEX from about US$11.81 to US$10.91, citing lower revenue growth assumptions and a higher future P/E. They still highlight margin support from cost-cutting and potential free cash flow progress reflected in recent Buy-rated research.Seeking Alpha • Jan 04
VTEX: Despite Macro Challenges, A Great Price For FCF Growth
Summary VTEX (VTEX), a Brazilian e-commerce platform, offers compelling value after a 40% share price decline and remains a Buy amid macro headwinds. VTEX combines blue-chip customers, international expansion, disciplined opex, and positive FCF margins, despite recent deceleration in revenue and GMV growth. Q3 results showed 6% y/y revenue growth and 13% y/y GMV growth, with guidance trimmed to 9.3–10.7% FX-neutral growth for the year. Trading at ~10.9x EV/FY26 FCF, VTEX's valuation compensates for slower growth, making the current dip a buying opportunity for portfolio diversification. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Dec 21
VTEX: Cost Discipline And Free Cash Flow Progress Will Drive Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price target on VTEX to approximately $5.00 per share from around $6.00, citing slower expected revenue growth along with improved margin and free cash flow prospects that they believe still support a favorable risk reward profile. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research highlights a more mixed backdrop for VTEX, as investors weigh improved profitability against slowing top line expectations.Narrative Update • Dec 07
VTEX: Cost Discipline And Share Repurchases Will Drive Future Free Cash Flow
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for VTEX slightly lower, trimming the target from $7.24 to $7.14 per share. They are balancing more cautious growth and discount rate assumptions against supportive Street research highlighting improving margins, healthier free cash flow prospects, and an increasingly attractive valuation after the recent selloff.Narrative Update • Nov 22
VTEX: Cost Controls And Market Resilience Will Drive Free Cash Flow Recovery
VTEX’s analyst fair value price target has increased slightly from $7.15 to $7.24. Analysts cite improved profit margin forecasts and resilience in medium-term growth expectations as the primary drivers for the upward revision.Analysis Article • Nov 13
Shareholders Will Be Pleased With The Quality of VTEX's (NYSE:VTEX) Earnings
Even though VTEX ( NYSE:VTEX ) posted strong earnings, investors appeared to be underwhelmed. We have done some...Narrative Update • Nov 07
VTEX: Cost Discipline And AI Solutions Will Drive Free Cash Flow Upside
Analysts have adjusted their price targets for VTEX, with Jefferies lowering its target from $7.30 to $6.50. Recent research cites concerns about near-term growth but also highlights a view that the stock remains undervalued after its sharp decline.Narrative Update • Oct 23
Business Momentum Will Accelerate As International Headwinds Ease And Markets Stabilize
Analysts have lowered their fair value price target for VTEX to $7.15 from $7.60 per share, citing a softer growth outlook and recent valuation adjustments. This follows mixed research sentiment and recent updates to company guidance.Analysis Article • Oct 14
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of VTEX (NYSE:VTEX)
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, VTEX fair value estimate is US$5.05 With US$4.22 share price...Narrative Update • Oct 09
US And European Expansion Will Shape Future Global Opportunities
Analysts have lowered their price target for VTEX, reducing the fair value estimate from $8.20 to $7.60 due to concerns over slower growth. This adjustment is partially offset by improvements in profit margin and overall valuation following a recent market selloff.Narrative Update • Aug 22
US And European Expansion Will Shape Future Global Opportunities
Analysts have reduced their price target for VTEX from $8.87 to $8.42 amid weaker-than-expected Q2 growth, ongoing macroeconomic headwinds in key Latin American markets, and lowered 2025 guidance, which has increased near-term caution despite continued confidence in long-term sector drivers. Analyst Commentary Weak growth in Q2, especially due to deteriorating conditions in Argentina and Brazil, prompting reduced growth outlook.Analysis Article • Aug 09
What You Can Learn From VTEX's (NYSE:VTEX) P/E After Its 32% Share Price Crash
NYSE:VTEX 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore VTEX's Fair Values from the Community and select yours VTEX...Analysis Article • Jul 17
The Return Trends At VTEX (NYSE:VTEX) Look Promising
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...Analysis Article • May 14
Shareholders Will Be Pleased With The Quality of VTEX's (NYSE:VTEX) Earnings
VTEX's ( NYSE:VTEX ) strong earnings report was rewarded with a positive stock price move. We did some digging and...Analysis Article • May 13
What VTEX's (NYSE:VTEX) 26% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You
Those holding VTEX ( NYSE:VTEX ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 26% in the last thirty...Seeking Alpha • Apr 23
VTEX: Long-Term Growth Runway With Strong Moat
Summary I rate VTEX a buy due to its strong position in the growing LATAM e-commerce market, competitive advantages, and potential for retail media monetization. VTEX's platform offers comprehensive solutions for enterprise brands, integrating front-end shopping and back-end logistics, enhancing client stickiness and flexibility. VTEX's network effects and expanding ecosystem increase its platform's value, attracting more brands and users, and further driving growth and competitive advantage. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Nov 12
Shareholders Will Be Pleased With The Quality of VTEX's (NYSE:VTEX) Earnings
VTEX ( NYSE:VTEX ) just reported healthy earnings but the stock price didn't move much. Investors are probably missing...Analysis Article • Oct 31
VTEX (NYSE:VTEX) May Have Issues Allocating Its Capital
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...
New Narrative • Sep 14
Operational Efficiency And Global Partnerships Propel Robust Market Growth And Margin Expansion
VTEX's focus on operational efficiency and partnerships is set to boost net margins and significantly raise revenue and market share.Analysis Article • Aug 28
The Price Is Right For VTEX (NYSE:VTEX)
When you see that almost half of the companies in the Interactive Media and Services industry in the United States have...Analysis Article • Jul 24
Should You Investigate VTEX (NYSE:VTEX) At US$6.66?
While VTEX ( NYSE:VTEX ) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw significant share price movement during...Analysis Article • May 21
VTEX's (NYSE:VTEX) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 20% Below Its Share Price
Key Insights The projected fair value for VTEX is US$5.50 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity VTEX is estimated...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 318 | 48 | 39 | 54 | 5 |
| 12/31/2027 | 295 | 43 | 26 | 52 | 11 |
| 12/31/2026 | 269 | 34 | 32 | 43 | 9 |
| 3/31/2026 | 247 | 23 | 38 | 40 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 241 | 20 | 32 | 33 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 234 | 13 | 35 | 36 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 230 | 10 | 34 | 35 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 228 | 18 | 29 | 30 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 227 | 16 | 24 | 26 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 226 | 12 | 21 | 23 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 221 | 7 | 17 | 18 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 212 | -7 | 10 | 11 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 201 | -16 | 5 | 5 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 186 | -17 | -3 | -3 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 174 | -26 | -9 | -9 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 165 | -41 | -18 | -18 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 158 | -52 | -30 | -29 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 149 | -63 | -53 | -53 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 142 | -73 | -61 | -60 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 135 | -67 | -63 | -62 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 126 | -61 | -55 | -53 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 118 | -54 | -31 | -29 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 114 | -29 | -9 | -7 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 108 | -8 | 11 | 13 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 99 | -1 | 10 | 11 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 61 | -5 | N/A | 2 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: VTEX's forecast earnings growth (24.3% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: VTEX's earnings (24.3% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.8% per year).
High Growth Earnings: VTEX's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: VTEX's revenue (9.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.7% per year).
High Growth Revenue: VTEX's revenue (9.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: VTEX's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.2%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/25 20:56 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/22 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
VTEX is covered by 17 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Lucca Brendim | BofA Global Research |
| Daniel Federle | Bradesco S.A. Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários |
| Carlos Palhares Sequeira | BTG Pactual |