Update shared on09 Oct 2025
Fair value Decreased 7.32%Analysts have lowered their price target for VTEX, reducing the fair value estimate from $8.20 to $7.60 due to concerns over slower growth. This adjustment is partially offset by improvements in profit margin and overall valuation following a recent market selloff.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst updates reflect a divided outlook on VTEX as investors weigh its medium-term potential against near-term uncertainties. The discussion has centered on growth execution, market valuation, and evolving financial guidance.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts see the stock’s recent sharp decline as excessive and believe VTEX is undervalued at current share prices.
- Despite concerns about the latest quarterly growth results, the medium and long-term growth potential for the company is still viewed as intact.
- Valuation has become more attractive following the selloff, prompting upgrades even as price targets are revised downward.
- Bearish analysts note that deteriorating conditions in key markets like Argentina and Brazil have contributed to recent weak growth figures.
- There is increased caution due to VTEX reducing its already soft growth outlook for 2025, which clouds visibility into 2026 performance.
- Price targets were cut in response to tempered growth forecasts and ongoing uncertainty regarding the company’s ability to reaccelerate revenue momentum.
What's in the News
- VTEX unveiled new enterprise-grade solutions at VTEX Vision 2025. The enhancements target B2B complexity, personalized omnichannel experiences, and an agentic AI workforce. Notable features include advanced buyer organization management, personalized catalogs and pricing, and AI-powered semantic search and recommendations. (Key Developments)
- The company announced a $40 million Class A share repurchase program, valid through July 31, 2026. Repurchased shares may be canceled or used for equity incentive plans and other corporate purposes. (Key Developments)
- VTEX provided updated earnings guidance for Q3 and full-year 2025, targeting FX neutral year-over-year subscription revenue growth of 6.0% to 9.0% for the quarter and 9.0% to 12.0% for the year. (Key Developments)
- From April 1 to June 30, 2025, VTEX repurchased 800,000 shares for $3.9 million. In total, 5,330,357 shares (2.89% of shares outstanding) have been bought back since the December 2024 authorization. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- The Fair Value Estimate has decreased from $8.20 to $7.60, reflecting a lower price target.
- The Discount Rate has risen slightly from 8.80% to 8.82%, indicating a marginally higher required return by investors.
- The Revenue Growth projection has fallen significantly from 14.05% to 11.04%, suggesting more modest future expansion.
- The Net Profit Margin estimate has improved from 10.82% to 14.41%, highlighting better expected profitability.
- The Future P/E Ratio expectation has decreased from 48.84x to 36.84x, implying a less aggressive valuation of future earnings.
Disclaimer
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