Shopify Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

Shopify is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 19.8% and 17.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 16.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 21.1% in 3 years.

Key information

19.8%

Earnings growth rate

16.5%

EPS growth rate

IT earnings growth	13.8%
Revenue growth rate	17.1%
Future return on equity	21.1%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	04 Sep 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Shopify Inc.'s (NYSE:SHOP) 36% Share Price Surge

Sep 01

Shopify's Unseen Advantage: Strong Earnings In A Weak Consumer Environment

Aug 22

Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) Posted Healthy Earnings But There Are Some Other Factors To Be Aware Of

Aug 20

Is Shopify Inc. (NYSE:SHOP) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At Its Intrinsic Value

Mar 18

Shopify: Way Too Cheap For What's Coming

Mar 17

Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) Is Looking To Continue Growing Its Returns On Capital

Mar 03

Shopify: Disappointing Free Cash Flow Guidance, An Opportunity For Growth Investors

Feb 23

Shopify Is Succeeding With Their Merchants

Feb 16

Shopify: A Sanity Check Is Overdue (Rating Downgrade)

Feb 07

Shopify: Strength Through Partnerships

Feb 01

Shopify: It's Just Math, Decade Of Underperformance Ahead

Jan 18

The 'New' Shopify Is Here

Jan 09

Shopify: 3 Reasons To Buy In 2024

Jan 03

What You Can Learn From Shopify Inc.'s (NYSE:SHOP) P/S

Dec 31

Shopify Is A Special Company

Dec 11

Is Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) Using Debt In A Risky Way?

Dec 10

Shopify As An Operating System For E-Commerce

Dec 03

Shopify's Q3 Earnings Beat The Odds: Is The Stock Still Overpriced Or Worth Every Penny?

Nov 06

Shopify: Financial Discipline Is Taking Hold

Oct 31

Shopify: Riding High On Promising Future Growth

Oct 13

Shopify: Bull Run Is Likely Over

Sep 27

Shopify Will Weather Cyclical Headwinds With 3 Factors Reinforcing Its Strengthening Moat

Sep 12

Does Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Sep 11

Shopify Can Surprise With Better Growth Trajectory

Aug 31

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Shopify Inc. (NYSE:SHOP)

Aug 21

Shopify: Soaring Profits With A 2-Pronged Approach

Aug 19

Make No Mistake, Shopify's AI Opportunities Are Massive (Rating Upgrade)

Aug 13

Revolutionary Q2 2023 Results Cement Shopify's Ecommerce Dominance

Aug 04

Shopify Stock Is A Speculative Buy Before Earnings

Jul 25

Shopify: The Rally Went Too Far

Jul 13

Shopify: Living On Past Glory

Jul 07

Shopify Inc.'s (NYSE:SHOP) Earnings Haven't Escaped The Attention Of Investors

Jun 22

Shopify: Downgrading On Amazon Risks

Jun 19

Shopify: Many Concerns Remain

Jun 13

Is Shopify Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold After Going Up Over 50% This Year?

Jun 07

Does Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Feb 24

Shopify's Powerful Expansion Beyond E-Commerce

Feb 22

Shopify: Closing In On Amazon 1P

Feb 16

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:SHOP - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2026	12,620	1,751	2,365	2,442	19
12/31/2025	10,414	1,254	1,754	1,806	46
12/31/2024	8,645	471	1,363	1,396	44
6/30/2024	7,764	1,273	1,287	1,304	N/A
3/31/2024	7,413	-209	1,051	1,082	N/A
12/31/2023	7,060	132	905	944	N/A
9/30/2023	6,651	-1,148	549	594	N/A
6/30/2023	6,303	-2,025	125	182	N/A
3/31/2023	5,904	-1,918	-59	-11	N/A
12/31/2022	5,600	-3,460	-186	-136	N/A
9/30/2022	5,245	-3,208	-10	58	N/A
6/30/2022	5,003	-1,901	168	234	N/A
3/31/2022	4,827	182	313	375	N/A
12/31/2021	4,612	2,915	485	536	N/A
9/30/2021	4,210	3,410	458	489	N/A
6/30/2021	3,853	2,452	507	537	N/A
3/31/2021	3,448	1,609	615	646	N/A
12/31/2020	2,929	320	383	425	N/A
9/30/2020	2,457	196	183	232	N/A
6/30/2020	2,080	-67	58	113	N/A
3/31/2020	1,728	-132	-107	-39	N/A
12/31/2019	1,578	-125	8	71	N/A
9/30/2019	1,417	-127	-31	27	N/A
6/30/2019	1,296	-78	10	60	N/A
3/31/2019	1,179	-73	-6	36	N/A
12/31/2018	1,073	-65	-32	9	N/A
9/30/2018	952	-66	-26	19	N/A
6/30/2018	854	-52	-31	10	N/A
3/31/2018	760	-42	N/A	2	N/A
12/31/2017	673	-40	N/A	8	N/A
9/30/2017	581	-46	N/A	-4	N/A
6/30/2017	509	-46	N/A	3	N/A
3/31/2017	444	-40	N/A	17	N/A
12/31/2016	389	-35	N/A	14	N/A
9/30/2016	329	-33	N/A	12	N/A
6/30/2016	282	-28	N/A	11	N/A
3/31/2016	241	-23	N/A	12	N/A
12/31/2015	205	-19	N/A	16	N/A
9/30/2015	170	-17	N/A	15	N/A
6/30/2015	145	-17	N/A	13	N/A
3/31/2015	124	-20	N/A	4	N/A
12/31/2014	105	-22	N/A	-1	N/A
12/31/2013	50	-5	N/A	1	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SHOP's forecast earnings growth (19.8% per year) is above the savings rate (2.5%).

Earnings vs Market: SHOP's earnings (19.8% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SHOP's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: SHOP's revenue (17.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SHOP's revenue (17.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SHOP's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (21.1%)

Shopify Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Shopify Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Third Quarter of 2024

Price target decreased by 8.1% to US$77.53

Shopify Inc. Provides Revenue Guidance for the Second Quarter of 2024

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 164%, revenue upgraded

Shopify Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Third Quarter 2023

Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to US$0.27 loss

Recent updates

High number of new directors

Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Shopify Inc.'s (NYSE:SHOP) 36% Share Price Surge

Shopify's Unseen Advantage: Strong Earnings In A Weak Consumer Environment

Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) Posted Healthy Earnings But There Are Some Other Factors To Be Aware Of

Shopify: Strong Returns Still Ahead, Buy Before It's Too Late

New minor risk - Insider selling

VP of Product & COO recently sold US$3.1m worth of stock

Shopify: Solid Value For Growth Investors

Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Shopify Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Third Quarter of 2024

Shopify Q2 Earnings Preview: Don't Ignore The Enterprise Customer Tailwind

Shopify: The Market Leader Deserves A Premium

Shopify Inc. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Aug 07, 2024

Revenues Tell The Story For Shopify Inc. (NYSE:SHOP)

We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At Shopify (NYSE:SHOP)

Buy Shopify Before The Rebound (Technical Analysis)

Lead Independent Director notifies of intention to sell stock

Shopify Inc. acquired Threads Inc.

Shopify: Beyond The Short-Term Noise, A Long-Term Growth Story, Buy

Shopify Inc. Approves Board Elections

Founder exercised options and sold US$1.1m worth of stock

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Shopify: The Powerhouse Of Next-Generation Commerce

Price target decreased by 8.1% to US$77.53

Shopify Inc. Provides Revenue Guidance for the Second Quarter of 2024

First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Shopify: Multiple Compression Should Matter In Coming Years

Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) Has A Rock Solid Balance Sheet

Shopify Direct Sales Should Win As Amazon Shifts Toward 'Pay To Play' Model

Now 20% overvalued

Now 24% overvalued

E House Studio, LLC, Shopify Inc. (NYSE:SHOP) and Recharge Partner Agency acquired Commerce12, LLC.

The Price Is Right For Shopify Inc. (NYSE:SHOP)

Shopify: Aggressive Expansion Path

Lead Independent Director notifies of intention to sell stock

Shopify Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 04, 2024

Is Shopify Inc. (NYSE:SHOP) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At Its Intrinsic Value

Shopify: Way Too Cheap For What's Coming

Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) Is Looking To Continue Growing Its Returns On Capital

Founder notifies of intention to sell stock

Shopify: Disappointing Free Cash Flow Guidance, An Opportunity For Growth Investors

Shopify Is Succeeding With Their Merchants

Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Shopify: A Sanity Check Is Overdue (Rating Downgrade)

Shopify: Strength Through Partnerships

Shopify Inc. to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Feb 13, 2024

Shopify: It's Just Math, Decade Of Underperformance Ahead

The 'New' Shopify Is Here

Shopify: 3 Reasons To Buy In 2024

What You Can Learn From Shopify Inc.'s (NYSE:SHOP) P/S

President notifies of intention to sell stock

President exercised options and sold US$86k worth of stock

Shopify Is A Special Company

Is Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) Using Debt In A Risky Way?

Shopify As An Operating System For E-Commerce

Director recently sold US$16m worth of stock

Director notifies of intention to sell stock

Shopify's Q3 Earnings Beat The Odds: Is The Stock Still Overpriced Or Worth Every Penny?

Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Shopify: Financial Discipline Is Taking Hold

Shopify: Riding High On Promising Future Growth

Shopify Inc. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 02, 2023

Shopify: Bull Run Is Likely Over

President notifies of intention to sell stock

Shopify Will Weather Cyclical Headwinds With 3 Factors Reinforcing Its Strengthening Moat

Does Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Shopify Can Surprise With Better Growth Trajectory

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Shopify Inc. (NYSE:SHOP)

Shopify: Soaring Profits With A 2-Pronged Approach