Riskified Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
Riskified is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 112.7% and 11.7% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 113.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 16.2% in 3 years.
Key information
112.7%
Earnings growth rate
113.77%
EPS growth rate
| Software earnings growth | 20.4% |
| Revenue growth rate | 11.7% |
| Future return on equity | 16.16% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 08 Sep 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Analysis Article • Aug 15
Earnings Update: Riskified Ltd. (NYSE:RSKD) Just Reported And Analysts Are Boosting Their Estimates
Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 22% over the past week following Riskified Ltd. 's ( NYSE:RSKD...
Narrative Update • Aug 14
RSKD: Future Revenue Mix And Chargeback Trends Will Shape Margin Recovery
Analysts have lifted their average price target on Riskified to $6.70 from $5.82, citing stronger expectations for revenue growth acceleration, improved profit margins, and a lower future P/E assumption, as reflected in recent research updates from UBS, Goldman Sachs, and Keefe Bruyette. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Riskified points to a mixed but gradually improving stance on the stock, with several firms adjusting price targets higher while keeping cautious ratings in place.Seeking Alpha • Aug 03
Riskified Improves Gross Margins But Are They Durable Gains?
Summary Riskified Ltd. remains a Hold as gross margin and operating leverage improve, but topline growth is tepid amid intensifying AI-driven competition. RSKD’s core strengths are its enterprise positioning, data moat, and fraud liability guarantee, but it faces risks from bundled offerings by major platforms. Gross margin expansion outpaces revenue growth, driven by new merchants, improved machine learning models, and successful multi-product adoption. Management raised forward revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, but consistent operating profit is needed to confirm sustainable progress in the AI era. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jun 16
RSKD: Buybacks And New AI Capabilities Will Support Future Re Rating
Analysts have made a modest adjustment to their price target on Riskified, reflecting updated views on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions. These changes slightly reshaped their valuation model while keeping the fair value estimate steady at $7.00.Narrative Update • Jun 02
RSKD: Stronger Pipeline Execution And Buybacks Will Support Future Re Rating
Analysts have trimmed their average price targets on Riskified to a range of $5 to $7. This reflects updated views on growth, profitability and P/E assumptions after the latest earnings and outlook commentary.Narrative Update • May 02
RSKD: Stronger Pipeline And Platform Execution Will Support Future Re Rating
Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Riskified by $0.50, reflecting recent target cuts to $5 and $7, while still pointing to expectations for growth acceleration, a stronger new business pipeline, and improved technical performance on the platform. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates point to a more cautious stance on valuation but still highlight several constructive themes around Riskified's execution and growth outlook.Narrative Update • Apr 18
RSKD: Strengthening Pipeline And Platform Execution Will Support Future Re Rating
Analyst price targets on Riskified have eased slightly, with recent cuts of $0.50 to $5 and $1 to $7. These moves are framed against ongoing commentary about clearer line of sight into growth acceleration, a stronger new business pipeline, and improved platform technical performance.Narrative Update • Apr 03
RSKD: Stronger Pipeline And Platform Execution Will Drive Future Re Rating
Analysts have trimmed Riskified's average price target by $1 to $7. This reflects updated views on future growth and profitability while still pointing to underlying confidence in the company’s sales pipeline and platform performance.Narrative Update • Mar 19
RSKD: I Expect Pipeline Strength And Platform Performance Will Drive Re Rating
Analysts have lowered their average price target on Riskified by $0.50 to $7.00, citing recent target reductions to $5.00 and $7.00, as well as views that the company may have room for further growth acceleration, a stronger new business pipeline, and improved platform performance. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Riskified highlights mixed target revisions but also points to areas where bullish analysts still see upside potential tied to execution, growth visibility, and platform improvements.Narrative Update • Mar 05
RSKD: I Expect Stronger Pipeline And Platform Performance Will Support Upside
Narrative Update on Riskified The consensus analyst price target for Riskified has shifted from $8 to $7, as analysts factor in updated views on growth, margins, discount rates, and future P/E, while still highlighting what they see as clearer visibility into growth acceleration, a stronger new business pipeline, and better technical performance. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are trimming price targets to reflect updated assumptions on growth, margins, discount rates, and future P/E, yet they still point to what they see as an improving fundamental story behind the stock.Analysis Article • Aug 21
Little Excitement Around Riskified Ltd.'s (NYSE:RSKD) Revenues As Shares Take 26% Pounding
NYSE:RSKD 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Riskified's Fair Values from the Community and select yours...Narrative Update • Aug 20
Expanding Multiproduct Platform Will Open Money Transfer And Food Verticals
Analysts have modestly cut Riskified's price target to $5.82 amid concerns over softer near-term revenue guidance and persistent same-store sale pressure, despite solid quarterly results and bullish views on long-term pipeline and product adoption. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts emphasize positive new business trends, strong adoption of non-chargeback guarantee offerings, and a healthy sales pipeline supporting long-term growth.Seeking Alpha • Mar 28
Riskified Ltd.: Free Cash Flow And Balance Sheet Are The Best Part Of The Story
Summary Today, we revisit Riskified Ltd., which offers an AI-powered e-commerce risk management platform, for the first time in over two years. Sales and profit growth in FY2025 will be tepid, and the analyst firm community is mixed on the company's current prospects. However, RSKD has a fortress balance sheet and is delivering an impressively increasing amount of free cash flow. An updated analysis around this Busted IPO follows in the paragraphs below. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Mar 26
Expanding Multiproduct Platform Will Open Money Transfer And Food Verticals
Expanding the multiproduct platform into new verticals and enhancing product capabilities aims to increase market share and drive revenue growth.Analysis Article • Feb 11
Are Investors Undervaluing Riskified Ltd. (NYSE:RSKD) By 41%?
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Riskified fair value estimate is US$9.55 Riskified is...Seeking Alpha • Nov 26
Riskified: I Am Still Confident In The Growth Outlook
Summary I maintain a buy rating for RSKD due to its strong growth potential, despite recent share price declines and a challenging macro environment. RSKD's 3Q24 results showed solid revenue growth, improved EBITDA, and strong new product adoption, reinforcing confidence in its growth story. Despite losing a major client, RSKD's ability to secure large contracts and maintain high renewal rates underscores its market strength. Valuation remains attractive with potential for significant upside, driven by expected revenue growth acceleration and possible multiple rerating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 28
Riskified: A Compelling Valuation Emerges Following The Recent Sell-Off (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Shares have fallen more than 20% since Q2 results were released. Full-year revenue guidance was lowered, while adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised due to operating leverage in the business. The company is profitable and has a strong balance sheet, which management is leveraging to repurchase shares aggressively. I see healthy upside to my $6.9 price target by 2026, which leads me to upgrade RSKD shares to a Buy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Aug 05
Riskified Ltd.'s (NYSE:RSKD) Business And Shares Still Trailing The Industry
You may think that with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 3.3x Riskified Ltd. ( NYSE:RSKD ) is a stock worth...Seeking Alpha • Jul 12
Riskified: Growth Slowdown Is A Concern Despite Margin Improvements
Summary Shares are up more than 30% this year as the company has demonstrated the operating leverage in its business model. However, revenue growth has slowed in recent quarters and is expected to continue into Q2. Despite its large net cash position, I see limited upside potential from today’s share price. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 496 | 30 | 72 | 74 | 3 |
| 12/31/2027 | 451 | 12 | 58 | 59 | 6 |
| 12/31/2026 | 406 | -8 | 42 | 47 | 6 |
| 6/30/2026 | 368 | -16 | 46 | 47 | N/A |
| 3/31/2026 | 351 | -18 | 38 | 40 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 345 | -28 | 33 | 34 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 339 | -37 | 33 | 34 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 336 | -39 | 33 | 34 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 333 | -37 | 32 | 33 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 328 | -35 | 39 | 40 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 318 | -34 | 36 | 36 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 311 | -45 | 25 | 27 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 305 | -53 | 16 | 18 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 298 | -59 | 6 | 7 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 293 | -67 | -8 | -4 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 284 | -72 | -16 | -12 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 271 | -89 | -24 | -19 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 261 | -105 | -34 | -26 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 252 | -121 | -50 | -36 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 241 | -181 | -61 | -45 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 237 | -168 | -47 | -31 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 229 | -179 | -34 | -20 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 216 | -147 | -10 | -5 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 206 | -70 | 7 | 9 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 188 | -57 | -2 | 0 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 170 | -11 | -6 | -3 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 131 | -14 | N/A | 4 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: RSKD is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.7%).
Earnings vs Market: RSKD is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: RSKD is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: RSKD's revenue (11.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: RSKD's revenue (11.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: RSKD's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.2%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/15 22:26 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/15 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Riskified Ltd. is covered by 8 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Ramsey El-Assal | Barclays |
| Clark Wright | D.A. Davidson & Co. |
| William Nance | Goldman Sachs |