Are Roper Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:ROP) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?

Key Insights

• Roper Technologies' estimated fair value is US$351 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of US$444 suggests Roper Technologies is 26% overvalued
• Analyst price target for ROP is US$492 which is 40% above our fair value estimate

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Roper Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:ROP) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Roper Technologies

Is Roper Technologies Fairly Valued?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$1.93b	US$2.08b	US$2.26b	US$2.40b	US$2.51b	US$2.61b	US$2.69b	US$2.77b	US$2.84b	US$2.91b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x6	Analyst x3	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 4.64%	Est @ 3.84%	Est @ 3.28%	Est @ 2.89%	Est @ 2.62%	Est @ 2.43%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.3%	US$1.8k	US$1.8k	US$1.8k	US$1.7k	US$1.7k	US$1.6k	US$1.5k	US$1.5k	US$1.4k	US$1.3k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$16b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$2.9b× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (8.3%– 2.0%) = US$47b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$47b÷ ( 1 + 8.3%)¹⁰= US$21b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$37b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$444, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Roper Technologies as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.053. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Roper Technologies

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value lower than the current share price? For Roper Technologies, we've compiled three pertinent aspects you should consider:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Roper Technologies that you should be aware of.
2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for ROP's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.