PagerDuty Valuation

Is PD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PD ($20.34) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($25.38)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PD is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PD?

Key metric: As PD is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for PD. This is calculated by dividing PD's market cap by their current revenue.
What is PD's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio4x
SalesUS$457.17m
Market CapUS$1.87b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does PD's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for PD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average3.7x
JAMF Jamf Holding
3.1x12.4%US$1.9b
CXM Sprinklr
3x5.5%US$2.3b
SEMR Semrush Holdings
5.7x16.6%US$2.0b
RAMP LiveRamp Holdings
3x8.5%US$2.1b
PD PagerDuty
4x9.6%US$1.9b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: PD is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4x) compared to the peer average (3.7x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does PD's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

78 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VYX NCR Voyix
0.6x-23.2%US$2.13b
PGY Pagaya Technologies
0.7x15.8%US$754.97m
XPER Xperi
0.9x1.8%US$439.34m
0.6x1.4%US$412.89m
PD 4.0xIndustry Avg. 5.7xNo. of Companies78PS048121620+
78 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: PD is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4x) compared to the US Software industry average (5.8x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PD's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PD PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio4x
Fair PS Ratio4.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: PD is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.3x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$20.34
US$22.27
+9.5%
15.4%US$30.00US$18.00n/a11
Dec ’25US$21.24
US$22.27
+4.9%
15.4%US$30.00US$18.00n/a11
Nov ’25US$18.47
US$21.82
+18.1%
16.3%US$30.00US$18.00n/a11
Oct ’25US$17.69
US$21.91
+23.9%
16.1%US$30.00US$18.00n/a11
Sep ’25US$19.78
US$25.55
+29.1%
10.6%US$30.00US$22.00n/a11
Aug ’25US$20.01
US$25.55
+27.7%
10.6%US$30.00US$22.00n/a11
Jul ’25US$22.76
US$26.04
+14.4%
11.0%US$30.00US$22.00n/a11
Jun ’25US$18.97
US$26.18
+38.0%
10.6%US$30.00US$22.00n/a8
May ’25US$20.19
US$26.16
+29.6%
12.3%US$30.00US$21.00n/a10
Apr ’25US$22.48
US$26.16
+16.4%
12.3%US$30.00US$21.00n/a10
Mar ’25US$24.65
US$27.34
+10.9%
12.2%US$31.00US$21.00n/a10
Feb ’25US$24.15
US$27.34
+13.2%
12.2%US$31.00US$21.00n/a10
Jan ’25US$23.15
US$27.11
+17.1%
12.7%US$31.00US$21.00n/a9
Dec ’24US$21.73
US$26.84
+23.5%
13.2%US$31.00US$21.00US$21.248
Nov ’24US$19.67
US$28.46
+44.7%
10.0%US$32.00US$25.00US$18.478
Oct ’24US$22.49
US$28.46
+26.6%
10.0%US$32.00US$25.00US$17.698
Sep ’24US$23.77
US$29.53
+24.2%
12.3%US$35.00US$25.00US$19.789
Aug ’24US$25.27
US$30.98
+22.6%
8.2%US$35.00US$26.00US$20.019
Jul ’24US$22.48
US$30.98
+37.8%
8.2%US$35.00US$26.00US$22.769
Jun ’24US$27.75
US$34.54
+24.5%
8.0%US$39.00US$30.00US$18.979
May ’24US$29.94
US$34.54
+15.4%
8.0%US$39.00US$30.00US$20.199
Apr ’24US$34.98
US$34.21
-2.2%
7.7%US$39.00US$30.00US$22.489
Mar ’24US$29.57
US$32.88
+11.2%
8.2%US$39.00US$30.00US$24.659
Feb ’24US$30.81
US$32.88
+6.7%
8.2%US$39.00US$30.00US$24.159
Jan ’24US$26.56
US$31.66
+19.2%
2.6%US$33.00US$30.00US$23.159
Dec ’23US$22.52
US$32.50
+44.3%
4.5%US$35.00US$30.00US$21.739

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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