Cloudflare (NET) Is Down 18.2% After Post-Quantum SASE Launch And Mastercard Deal - Has The Bull Case Changed?

• In February 2026, Cloudflare announced it had completed what it calls the world’s first full Secure Access Service Edge platform with post-quantum encryption across Cloudflare One, while also reporting 2025 results showing US$614.51 million in fourth-quarter revenue and US$2.17 billion in full-year revenue alongside a continued net loss.
• By extending post-quantum protection to wide-area networking and partnering with Mastercard on attack-surface monitoring, Cloudflare is tying its growth ambitions to securing critical infrastructure and small businesses against emerging cyber risks.
• We’ll now examine how Cloudflare’s post-quantum SASE rollout and Mastercard collaboration affect its existing investment narrative around AI-era security.

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Cloudflare Investment Narrative Recap

To own Cloudflare, you generally need to believe it can turn its global network and security stack into a durable, profitable platform while managing heavy competition and ongoing losses. The post-quantum SASE launch and Mastercard partnership strengthen its security story, but do not fundamentally change the near term tension between rapid product expansion and pressure on margins and reliability, which remains a key risk after recent network incidents.

The post-quantum SASE rollout is most directly linked to the existing catalyst around Zero Trust and SASE consolidation. By extending post-quantum protection across Cloudflare One, including WAN and Zero Trust access, Cloudflare is aiming to make its platform more compelling for larger, consolidated security deals, which ties directly into its guidance for higher revenue in 2026 and its effort to deepen engagement with enterprise and critical infrastructure customers.

Yet investors should be aware that outages and margin pressure could still undermine...

Read the full narrative on Cloudflare (it's free!)

Cloudflare’s narrative projects $3.8 billion revenue and $176.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 26.5% yearly revenue growth and a $293.5 million earnings increase from -$117.1 million today.

Uncover how Cloudflare's forecasts yield a $232.78 fair value, a 45% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Compared with consensus, the most optimistic analysts were assuming roughly US$4.6 billion of revenue and US$170 million of earnings by 2028, so this post-quantum SASE milestone and the risk that hyperscalers compress pricing power could meaningfully shift how you weigh those upbeat expectations against more cautious views.

Explore 23 other fair value estimates on Cloudflare - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Decide For Yourself

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your Cloudflare research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Cloudflare research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Cloudflare's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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