Elastic Valuation

Is ESTC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ESTC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ESTC ($108.03) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($154.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ESTC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ESTC?

Key metric: As ESTC is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for ESTC. This is calculated by dividing ESTC's market cap by their current revenue.
What is ESTC's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio8.1x
SalesUS$1.38b
Market CapUS$11.20b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does ESTC's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for ESTC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.6x
U Unity Software
4.8x1.4%US$9.5b
VERX Vertex
13.1x14.2%US$8.4b
CWAN Clearwater Analytics Holdings
17.2x18.6%US$7.9b
CFLT Confluent
11.3x16.6%US$10.3b
ESTC Elastic
8.1x12.3%US$11.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ESTC is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.1x) compared to the peer average (11.6x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does ESTC's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

80 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VYX NCR Voyix
0.6x-23.2%US$2.12b
PGY Pagaya Technologies
0.7x15.8%US$704.88m
0.6x1.1%US$397.21m
XPER Xperi
0.8x1.8%US$390.47m
ESTC 8.1xIndustry Avg. 5.3xNo. of Companies80PS048121620+
80 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ESTC is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.1x) compared to the US Software industry average (5.3x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ESTC's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ESTC PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio8.1x
Fair PS Ratio7.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: ESTC is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.3x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ESTC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$108.03
US$124.44
+15.2%
11.1%US$140.00US$93.12n/a23
Nov ’25US$80.84
US$100.55
+24.4%
12.2%US$130.00US$75.00n/a24
Oct ’25US$75.01
US$100.96
+34.6%
12.3%US$130.00US$75.00n/a24
Sep ’25US$76.19
US$102.09
+34.0%
12.4%US$130.00US$75.00n/a22
Aug ’25US$107.18
US$127.27
+18.7%
12.0%US$155.00US$92.00n/a22
Jul ’25US$115.48
US$127.27
+10.2%
12.0%US$155.00US$92.00n/a22
Jun ’25US$104.05
US$126.82
+21.9%
11.5%US$145.00US$92.00n/a22
May ’25US$105.75
US$132.58
+25.4%
14.4%US$185.00US$92.00n/a22
Apr ’25US$100.56
US$132.58
+31.8%
14.4%US$185.00US$92.00n/a22
Mar ’25US$117.01
US$131.59
+12.5%
15.9%US$185.00US$92.00n/a22
Feb ’25US$118.66
US$111.00
-6.5%
16.9%US$140.00US$67.00n/a21
Jan ’25US$112.70
US$103.53
-8.1%
15.0%US$131.00US$67.00n/a21
Dec ’24US$110.20
US$99.39
-9.8%
12.3%US$120.00US$67.00n/a21
Nov ’24US$74.48
US$82.25
+10.4%
10.9%US$100.00US$67.00US$80.8421
Oct ’24US$81.24
US$80.34
-1.1%
9.3%US$91.00US$67.00US$75.0121
Sep ’24US$74.27
US$78.33
+5.5%
10.1%US$90.00US$60.00US$76.1921
Aug ’24US$66.70
US$76.00
+13.9%
10.6%US$90.00US$60.00US$107.1820
Jul ’24US$64.12
US$76.00
+18.5%
10.6%US$90.00US$60.00US$115.4820
Jun ’24US$71.66
US$72.13
+0.7%
13.7%US$92.00US$55.00US$104.0519
May ’24US$56.46
US$70.02
+24.0%
12.2%US$85.00US$55.00US$105.7519
Apr ’24US$57.90
US$69.98
+20.9%
13.5%US$85.00US$50.00US$100.5620
Mar ’24US$57.73
US$70.98
+23.0%
16.5%US$96.00US$50.00US$117.0120
Feb ’24US$63.39
US$71.68
+13.1%
19.1%US$100.00US$50.00US$118.6620
Jan ’24US$51.50
US$76.13
+47.8%
17.1%US$100.00US$52.00US$112.7020
Dec ’23US$57.17
US$80.72
+41.2%
22.5%US$136.00US$52.00US$110.2018
Nov ’23US$62.96
US$99.89
+58.7%
17.2%US$155.00US$73.00US$74.4819

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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