Elastic Future Growth
Future criteria checks 4/6
Elastic is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 51.7% and 10.4% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 52.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 27.4% in 3 years.
Key information
51.7%
Earnings growth rate
52.55%
EPS growth rate
| Software earnings growth | 19.0% |
| Revenue growth rate | 10.4% |
| Future return on equity | 27.38% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 23 Apr 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 02
ESTC: AI Workloads And Larger Deals Will Drive Future Upside Potential
Narrative Update on Elastic The updated analyst price target for Elastic edges higher to $112.23 from $110.90. This reflects models that now assume more moderate revenue growth and profit margins alongside a much higher future P/E, in line with recent Street research that pairs cautious cloud and AI adoption expectations with ongoing interest in Elastic as an observability and data infrastructure name.
Narrative Update • Apr 17
ESTC: AI And Self Managed Demand Will Support Future Returns
Analysts have trimmed their average Elastic price targets by $10 to reflect more cautious assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and cloud adoption, even as they continue to highlight ongoing AI and self managed demand as key supports for the story. Analyst Commentary Across recent research, bearish analysts have largely focused on resetting expectations for Elastic by trimming price targets, even when they acknowledge solid Q3 execution and ongoing interest in AI use cases.Seeking Alpha • Apr 07
Elastic: AI Resistant, Strong Growth, And Great Value
Summary Elastic remains fundamentally strong despite a ~30% YTD decline and sector-wide SaaS selloff. ESTC's consumption-based pricing model and 112% net retention rate insulate it from AI-driven layoffs and churn. AI trends may serve as a tailwind for ESTC, supporting its complex, developer-focused search platform. With high-teens growth and margins, ESTC trades at just 2.3x FY27 EV/revenue, making the current dip a buying opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Apr 03
ESTC: AI Demand And Larger Deals Will Support Future Upside Potential
Elastic's analyst price targets have been reset lower, with cuts ranging from about $5 to $35 as analysts factor in Q3 cloud softness, conservative guidance, and updated AI adoption expectations, despite generally solid reported results. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Elastic reflects a mixed but generally constructive stance, with many firms trimming price targets after the Q3 print while still pointing to solid execution, ongoing AI traction, and potential for subscription driven growth.Narrative Update • Mar 20
ESTC: AI Demand And Larger Deals Will Drive Future Upside
Elastic's fair value estimate has been revised from $119.00 to $110.90 as analysts factor in lower Street price targets, more conservative revenue growth assumptions, and stronger profitability supported by AI driven demand and solid self managed and SaaS performance. Analyst Commentary Street research on Elastic has shifted toward more conservative price targets, but many firms still highlight constructive views on execution, AI driven demand, and the mix of self managed and SaaS revenue.Narrative Update • Mar 06
ESTC: AI Adoption And Self Managed Demand Will Support Future Upside Potential
Elastic's fair value estimate has been reduced from about $89.66 to $60.00 as analysts trim price targets following solid Q3 results, paired with more cautious revenue guidance, softer cloud momentum, and a greater mix of self managed deployments as customers focus on tighter AI related cost controls. Analyst Commentary Street research around Elastic has turned more cautious, even as many firms acknowledge solid Q3 execution.
Narrative Update • Feb 20
ESTC: GenAI And Data Demand Will Support Upside Through Cloud Volatility
Analysts have trimmed their average price targets on Elastic, with our fair value estimate moving from about $104.54 to $99.63 as several firms cut targets into the $77 to $115 range, while still pointing to solid demand checks for data infrastructure and a specific preference for Elastic within software coverage. Analyst Commentary Recent research suggests that while price targets on Elastic are coming down, many firms still see the company as one of the more attractive names within data infrastructure and broader software coverage.Narrative Update • Feb 05
ESTC: GenAI And Large Deals Will Shape Future Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Elastic to $119 from about $137, reflecting a series of reduced price targets that weigh a slightly higher discount rate and a lower assumed future P/E against ongoing expectations for steady revenue growth and modestly improving margins. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Elastic has centered on recalibrated price targets after a mixed fiscal Q2, with most firms keeping positive views on execution and long term demand drivers.Narrative Update • Jan 22
ESTC: GenAI And Large Deals Will Drive Long Term Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Elastic across several firms, and our updated fair value estimate now aligns slightly lower. This reflects mixed Q2 results, slower cloud growth, and peer multiple compression, even as analysts point to raised FY26 guidance, large deal progress, and ongoing GenAI and observability opportunities as supportive factors.Narrative Update • Jan 07
ESTC: GenAI And Large Deals Will Support Long Term Upside
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Elastic from about $140.57 to roughly $137.33. This reflects lower price targets across Wall Street as they weigh mixed Q2 results, softer cloud trends, higher assumed discount rates, a reduced profit margin outlook, and a materially higher future P/E assumption.Narrative Update • Dec 20
ESTC: GenAI Demand Will Drive Long-Term Upside Despite Near-Term Cloud Headwinds
Analysts have modestly trimmed their fair value estimate for Elastic to approximately $104.54 from about $106.22. This reflects lowered price targets across the Street as mixed Q2 execution, softer cloud momentum, and broader multiple compression temper enthusiasm around otherwise solid large deal activity, GenAI progress, and raised long term guidance.Narrative Update • Dec 06
ESTC: GenAI Adoption And Large Deal Momentum Will Drive Long-Term Upside
Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Elastic to about $106 from roughly $108, citing mixed Q2 execution, slowing cloud momentum, and a modestly higher risk profile, even as they highlight resilient large deal activity, raised long term guidance, and growing GenAI opportunities. Analyst Commentary Analyst opinion on Elastic is split, with several firms trimming price targets but maintaining constructive views on the company’s long term positioning, while others have moved to the sidelines amid concerns about execution and valuation following the latest quarter.Analysis Article • Nov 23
Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC) Price Target After Its Latest Report
One of the biggest stories of last week was how Elastic N.V. ( NYSE:ESTC ) shares plunged 23% in the week since its...Narrative Update • Nov 21
ESTC: GenAI Adoption And Expanding Pipelines Will Drive Platform Differentiation
Elastic's fair value estimate has been reduced from $120.16 to $107.96. Analysts point to a series of mixed quarterly results and ongoing segment shifts, despite an improved long-term outlook and strengthening profit margins.Narrative Update • Aug 27
GenAI And Serverless Expansion Will Drive Future Success
Elastic’s consensus price target saw a modest downgrade to $108.65 as analysts weighed intensifying AI competition and conservative CFO guidance against the company’s AI and subscription growth potential, with shares remaining attractively valued versus software peers. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts note Elastic is favorably positioned for revenue upside and generative AI optionality, highlighting potential acceleration in key subscription revenue metrics.Analysis Article • Aug 05
Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC) Shares Could Be 42% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
NYSE:ESTC 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Elastic's Fair Values from the Community and select yours Key...Analysis Article • Jul 07
Is There Now An Opportunity In Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC)?
Elastic N.V. ( NYSE:ESTC ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a double-digit share price rise of over...Analysis Article • Jun 02
Elastic (NYSE:ESTC) Has Debt But No Earnings; Should You Worry?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Seeking Alpha • Feb 26
Elastic: Rolling Up And Forward
Summary I initially valued Elastic at $95 in September using a DCF model and recommended a covered Call strategy due to slight bullishness. Elastic's stock appreciated to $104.9, leading to a potential 20.3% ROI in 6 months from my covered Call, though a higher strike could have yielded 35%. Elastic's strong economic moat in Search and moderate moats in Security and Observability support its valuation, despite challenges in passing the Rule of 40. Rolling up and forward the Call option can increase maximum ROI to 41.66% in one year, with slightly higher risk from a new break-even at $70.59. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 29
Elastic: Great Buying Opportunity After A Year Of Consolidation (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Elastic's stock has been volatile, dropping from $136 to $70 in 2024, but now presents a compelling buy opportunity after a year of consolidation. Previous Hold rating was due to elevated valuation, increased competition, and slowing growth; these concerns have now diminished. Recent quarterly results show strength, with a more appealing valuation, a promising new business model, and strong financials. Technical analysis indicates strong support around $95-100, suggesting potential for upward movement, supported by converging price and trading volumes. ESTC might reach $150-220 in 2026 if the company executes its strategy effectively. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Jan 26
Investment In GenAI And Sales Expansion Will Strengthen Future Market Share
Strategic focus on generative AI and platform consolidation is enhancing market position and driving future revenue growth.Seeking Alpha • Jan 04
Elastic: Staying On The Sidelines For Now
Summary I am neutral on Elastic (ESTC) due to the need for tangible growth acceleration to justify a higher valuation multiple. Current bookings metrics do not reflect strong underlying demand, raising concerns. Given the uncertainty, I prefer to wait on the sidelines until ESTC demonstrates clear signs of growth acceleration. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 11
Elastic: Caution Is Warranted
Summary Elastic's stock rebounded post-Q2 earnings, supported by the exit of the company’s CFO and growing optimization regarding sales productivity. Elastic's exposure to generative AI is a positive, but competition is fierce, and tailwinds already appear to be moderating. Elastic's modest growth, low services gross margins, modest net customer additions and weak net expansion rate are concerning. Given Elastic's current valuation and growth trajectory, the stock is unlikely to perform well over the next 12 months. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/30/2029 | 2,289 | 212 | 606 | 675 | 1 |
| 4/30/2028 | 2,232 | 91 | 464 | 471 | 22 |
| 4/30/2027 | 1,968 | -32 | 379 | 386 | 28 |
| 4/30/2026 | 1,735 | -83 | 309 | 308 | 28 |
| 1/31/2026 | 1,677 | -85 | 257 | 261 | N/A |
| 10/31/2025 | 1,609 | -109 | 302 | 306 | N/A |
| 7/31/2025 | 1,551 | -83 | 314 | 318 | N/A |
| 4/30/2025 | 1,483 | -108 | 262 | 266 | N/A |
| 1/31/2025 | 1,430 | -133 | 237 | 240 | N/A |
| 10/31/2024 | 1,376 | 60 | 201 | 204 | N/A |
| 7/31/2024 | 1,321 | 61 | 160 | 164 | N/A |
| 4/30/2024 | 1,267 | 62 | 145 | 149 | N/A |
| 1/31/2024 | 1,212 | 56 | 111 | 115 | N/A |
| 10/31/2023 | 1,159 | -193 | 67 | 70 | N/A |
| 7/31/2023 | 1,113 | -215 | 80 | 83 | N/A |
| 4/30/2023 | 1,069 | -236 | 33 | 36 | N/A |
| 1/31/2023 | 1,028 | -255 | 2 | 5 | N/A |
| 10/31/2022 | 978 | -239 | -2 | 3 | N/A |
| 7/31/2022 | 919 | -239 | -24 | -18 | N/A |
| 4/30/2022 | 862 | -204 | -2 | 6 | N/A |
| 1/31/2022 | 801 | -182 | 0 | 7 | N/A |
| 10/31/2021 | 734 | -163 | 15 | 22 | N/A |
| 7/31/2021 | 673 | -145 | 9 | 15 | N/A |
| 4/30/2021 | 608 | -129 | 18 | 23 | N/A |
| 1/31/2021 | 555 | -117 | 15 | 18 | N/A |
| 10/31/2020 | 511 | -124 | -28 | -24 | N/A |
| 7/31/2020 | 467 | -144 | -11 | -7 | N/A |
| 4/30/2020 | 428 | -167 | -36 | -31 | N/A |
| 1/31/2020 | 385 | -171 | -50 | -44 | N/A |
| 10/31/2019 | 342 | -148 | N/A | -30 | N/A |
| 7/31/2019 | 305 | -125 | N/A | -31 | N/A |
| 4/30/2019 | 272 | -102 | N/A | -24 | N/A |
| 1/31/2019 | 241 | -89 | N/A | -28 | N/A |
| 10/31/2018 | 211 | -81 | N/A | -21 | N/A |
| 7/31/2018 | 185 | -61 | N/A | -17 | N/A |
| 4/30/2018 | 160 | -53 | N/A | -21 | N/A |
| 4/30/2017 | 88 | -52 | N/A | -16 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: ESTC is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: ESTC is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: ESTC is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: ESTC's revenue (10.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: ESTC's revenue (10.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: ESTC's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (27.4%)
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/06 06:30 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/06 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/01/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/04/30 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Elastic N.V. is covered by 38 analysts. 28 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Shrenik Kothari | Baird |
| Raimo Lenschow | Barclays |
| William Kingsley Crane | Berenberg |