Splunk Inc.

NasdaqGS:SPLK Stock Report

Market Cap: US$26.4b

Splunk Valuation

Is SPLK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SPLK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SPLK ($156.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($362.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SPLK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SPLK?

Key metric: As SPLK is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SPLK. This is calculated by dividing SPLK's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SPLK's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio100.3x
EarningsUS$263.73m
Market CapUS$26.44b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SPLK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SPLK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average63.3x
TYL Tyler Technologies
109.9x16.6%US$26.3b
PTC PTC
62.9x14.9%US$24.0b
ZM Zoom Communications
27.5x2.7%US$25.7b
ANSS ANSYS
52.8x15.3%US$30.0b
SPLK Splunk
100.3x26.4%US$26.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SPLK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (100.3x) compared to the peer average (59.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SPLK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
YXT YXT.COM Group Holding
2xn/aUS$123.21m
NISN Nisun International Enterprise Development Group
1.4xn/aUS$24.74m
NXTT Next Technology Holding
0.6xn/aUS$14.86m
ULY Urgent.ly
0.08x-13.0%US$6.89m
SPLK 100.3xIndustry Avg. 42.0xNo. of Companies10PE020406080100+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SPLK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (100.3x) compared to the US Software industry average (42x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SPLK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SPLK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio100.3x
Fair PE Ratio48.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SPLK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (100.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (48.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SPLK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
US$156.89
0%
1.1%US$162.00US$152.00n/a18
Dec ’25n/a
US$156.89
0%
1.1%US$162.00US$152.00n/a18
Nov ’25n/a
US$156.89
0%
1.1%US$162.00US$152.00n/a18
Oct ’25n/a
US$156.89
0%
1.1%US$162.00US$152.00n/a18
Sep ’25n/a
US$156.89
0%
1.1%US$162.00US$152.00n/a18
Aug ’25n/a
US$156.89
0%
1.1%US$162.00US$152.00n/a18
Jul ’25n/a
US$156.89
0%
1.1%US$162.00US$152.00n/a18
Jun ’25n/a
US$156.89
0%
1.1%US$162.00US$152.00n/a18
May ’25n/a
US$156.89
0%
1.1%US$162.00US$152.00n/a18
Apr ’25n/a
US$156.89
0%
1.1%US$162.00US$152.00n/a18
Mar ’25US$156.16
US$156.89
+0.5%
1.1%US$162.00US$152.00n/a18
Feb ’25US$153.34
US$154.32
+0.6%
6.2%US$162.00US$115.00n/a19
Jan ’25US$152.35
US$150.85
-1.0%
9.5%US$162.00US$114.00n/a20
Dec ’24US$151.33
US$150.36
-0.6%
9.4%US$162.00US$114.00n/a22
Nov ’24US$146.88
US$149.74
+1.9%
9.4%US$162.00US$114.00n/a23
Oct ’24US$146.25
US$147.46
+0.8%
10.1%US$157.00US$114.00n/a24
Sep ’24US$122.85
US$126.85
+3.3%
7.9%US$150.00US$105.00n/a35
Aug ’24US$107.20
US$119.66
+11.6%
9.7%US$135.00US$86.00n/a33
Jul ’24US$106.09
US$119.18
+12.3%
10.2%US$135.00US$86.00n/a33
Jun ’24US$103.00
US$119.12
+15.6%
10.2%US$135.00US$86.00n/a34
May ’24US$84.96
US$115.79
+36.3%
11.9%US$150.00US$86.00n/a33
Apr ’24US$95.88
US$117.66
+22.7%
14.0%US$173.00US$86.00n/a35
Mar ’24US$102.48
US$114.94
+12.2%
14.2%US$173.00US$86.00US$156.1635
Feb ’24US$99.80
US$113.03
+13.3%
17.6%US$175.00US$86.00US$153.3435
Jan ’24US$86.09
US$113.72
+32.1%
18.7%US$175.00US$86.00US$152.3536
Dec ’23US$91.49
US$115.90
+26.7%
18.5%US$175.00US$86.00US$151.3335

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/03/18 04:28
End of Day Share Price 2024/03/15 00:00
Earnings2024/01/31
Annual Earnings2024/01/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Splunk Inc. is covered by 53 analysts. 28 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Adam ShepherdArete Research Services LLP
Joseph BonnerArgus Research Company
Josep BoriAtlantic Equities LLP