A Look at Pagaya Technologies (PGY) Valuation Following Upbeat Forecasts and Capital Raising Momentum

Pagaya Technologies (PGY) recently completed a $500 million asset-backed securitization, marking its seventh PAID deal this year and highlighting the company’s momentum as it approaches its highly anticipated Q3 2025 earnings report.

See our latest analysis for Pagaya Technologies.

Pagaya’s string of successful securitizations and its improved earnings outlook have kept market enthusiasm high, with the share price up an impressive 153.9% year-to-date despite some recent pullback. Over the past year, the total shareholder return stands at 67.2%, showing that momentum is still firmly on Pagaya’s side.

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Yet with such strong momentum and positive analyst sentiment, investors may wonder if Pagaya’s stellar performance is already factored into the share price or if the current discount signals a genuine buying opportunity ahead of earnings.

Most Popular Narrative: 39.6% Undervalued

With Pagaya Technologies closing at $24.45 and the narrative fair value target at $40.50, the current price stands far below what analysts see as justified, adding fuel to the debate just before results season.

Persistent investment and advancement in proprietary AI-driven underwriting, combined with growing data network effects from onboarding more partners, enhance credit decision accuracy and operational scalability. This supports higher net margins and improved long-term profitability.

Read the complete narrative.

The hidden engine driving this valuation? It is not just wild revenue forecasts or margin bets. Discover which specific financial milestones are built into these bold analyst calculations. The numbers behind this projection may surprise you, but you need to see the full narrative to get the answers.

Result: Fair Value of $40.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks such as tougher regulatory scrutiny or a slowdown in consumer credit demand could quickly unravel the bullish outlook for Pagaya Technologies.

Find out about the key risks to this Pagaya Technologies narrative.

Build Your Own Pagaya Technologies Narrative

If the current narrative does not fit your perspective or you prefer your own research approach, crafting your own take takes just minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Pagaya Technologies research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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