company background image
NN

NextNav NasdaqCM:NN Stock Report

Last Price

US$2.93

Market Cap

US$283.0m

7D

2.4%

1Y

-70.8%

Updated

09 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
NN fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation4/6
Future Growth2/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health5/6
Dividends0/6

NN Stock Overview

NextNav Inc. provides next generation global positioning system (GPS) and 3D geolocation services.

NextNav Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for NextNav
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$2.93
52 Week HighUS$15.32
52 Week LowUS$1.85
Beta0
1 Month Change33.18%
3 Month Change-42.77%
1 Year Change-70.76%
3 Year Changen/a
5 Year Changen/a
Change since IPO-69.95%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 10

NextNav reports Q2 results

NextNav press release (NASDAQ:NN): Q2Revenue of $1.4M (+566.7% Y/Y) beats by $0.15M. Net Income was $0.8 million in q2,2022

Jul 29

NextNav Inc.: Navigating Through The Storm

Shares of next-generation position, navigation, and timing solutions provider NextNav Inc. (NN) are down over 70% from their opening trade conducted in late October 2021. After impressive projections through FY26 were given on its September 2021 roadshow, the company is no longer providing any forecasts, significantly eroding investor confidence. With next to zero accounts receivable, yet compelling GPS 2.0 technology and half its market cap in cash, the recent beneficial owner buying merited a deeper dive. An investment analysis follows in the paragraphs below. "I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be." - Douglas Adams This week, we do a deep dive on a once-promising small-cap GPS concern. The company has not lived up to expectations since coming public less than a year ago, and the shares are deep in 'Busted IPO' territory. The company has a large cash balance and some recent insider buying from a beneficial owner. A full analysis follows below. Seeking Alpha Company Overview: NextNav Inc. (NN) is a McLean, Virginia based provider of next-generation position, navigation, and timing ((PNT)) solutions that overcome the limitations of space-based GPS (Global Positioning System). The company has deployed two commercial products, owns a global intellectual property portfolio consisting of more than 130 patents, as well as FCC licenses encompassing 93% of the U.S. population. NextNav was founded in 2007 and went public in October 2021 via a reverse merger into special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) Spartacus Acquisition Corporation, with its first trade executed at $11.05 a share. The stock trades just below three bucks a share, translating to a market cap of roughly $195 million. Products NextNav Pinnacle. The company's first product, NextNav Pinnacle, was launched during early 2021 in partnership with AT&T (T). Its network provides "floor-level" altitude detection to over 90% of commercial structures over three stories covering 4,400 cities in the U.S., essentially enhancing conventional two-dimensional longitude and latitude data. The technology leverages the barometric sensors already available in phones, tablets, and many other devices by comparing the device data to local conditions, subtracting the weather and other factors to leave behind a highly accurate altitude measurement, which exceeds an FCC mandate for three-meter accuracy. It is easily integrable, only requiring a simple software upgrade to a device that has a barometric sensor. Likewise, developers can easily add it to their apps. With obvious applications in 9-1-1 situations, its launch was fortuitously timed with the FCC requiring wireless carriers to provide accurate, floor level z-axis data for 9-1-1 calls. To that end, NextNav inked a deal with one of the nation's largest wireless carriers - yet to be named - for such a service. It is also part of commercial apps and app development platforms, such as Atlas Earth, Unity Engine, Eco3d, and Qualcomm (QCOM). It also has applications in the gaming, mass marketing, and augmented reality spaces. NextNav TerraPoiNT. The company's second offering is a land-based radio positioning and timing network that acts as a supplement/backup service to GPS known as NextNav TerraPoiNT. It employs a terrestrial network of transmitters to deliver resilient PNT capabilities, including indoor and urban environments where GPS is deficient. This dynamic is possible because the proximity of TerraPoiNT's transmitters amplifies the signal strength by ~100,000 times over GPS. With applications for driverless cars and drones in urban areas, as well as asset tracking, it has been deployed in 51 domestic markets. Other GPS backup systems include eLoran, a hyperbolic radio navigation system employing very low frequencies, which is more suitable for rural and maritime environments; low earth orbit satellite systems, which, although stronger than GPS, still provide a weak signal; and commercial location systems, such as 5G transmitters, which typically have a limited service area and are relatively inaccurate. Furthermore, in a study published by the Department of Transportation on resilient PNT solutions in 2021, TerraPoiNT was the only one that could deliver all six measurable functionalities while ranking number one in each functionality. The Market With superior technology, the opportunity for NextNav is seemingly boundless. Management estimates the domestic public safety and 9-1-1 market at $4 billion; the autonomous vehicle, UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle), and eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicle) market at $10 billion; the mass market and mobile apps (such as food delivery) at $24 billion; and enterprise, IoT, and critical infrastructure at $11 billion. NextNav projects its international opportunity at north of $50 billion. Stock Price Performance That said, its stock has been an abject disaster, down 82% since going public. The reason is very simple: transparency. After painting a rosy picture on its roadshow that included EBITDA forecasts of $233 million on revenue of $506 million in FY26 - quite ambitious considering the initial FY21 EBITDA projection of negative $46 million on revenue of $2 million - the company has been mum on any updated outlook. NextNav has not mentioned the word EBITDA since going public, but with an FY21 operating loss of $42.4 million on revenue of $0.8 million, it didn't matter. Considering the roadshow presentation in question was made in September 2021, the 60% miss at the topline was a bit head scratching. Blamed on lumpiness of revenue recognition manifest in its network integrations and with its stock already down ~35% at the time of its 4Q21 report in March 2022, the market initially gave it a pass. However, its biggest sin was the absence of a forecast going forward, meaning that its roadshow presentation FY22 revenue estimate of $24 million was in obvious doubt. That nagging realization, the overall market decline, the looming (late April 2022) lock-up expiration, and the bloodbath in high growth, no-profit stocks began a second leg down in late April, which continued after the company reported 1Q21 earnings. The stock has rebounded nicely since the market started to stabilize in mid-June, it should be noted. 1Q22 Earnings On May 12th, 2022, NextNav announced an operating loss of $16 million ($7.9 million cash) on revenue of $1.2 million. Even though the topline was up significantly from $251,000 in the prior-year period, working off such a low base does not allow for any meaningful extrapolation. Furthermore, a cursory view of the accounts receivable line on the balance sheet would suggest that nothing was billed in 1Q22, which certainly does not bode well for 2Q22. Management chose to focus on its operational wins achieved after the close of the quarter that included partnerships with GeoComm and Last Mile Technology - what those are worth is anyone's guess. Again, management provided no outlook for FY22, only to say that it "expect[s] to finish 2022 with a meaningful revenue run rate". Balance Sheet & Analyst Commentary: On the positive side of the ledger, NextNav held cash of $93.8 million and no debt as of March 31, 2022.

Jun 27

NextNav: A Next-Gen GPS Company With A Huge TAM

NextNav went public last year through a SPAC merger with Spartacus Acquisition Corporation, and its stock price is now down almost 80%. The geolocation software company is aiming to disrupt the current GPS space with its next-gen products. The TAM for geolocation is huge, and use cases are expanding with new industries like autonomous vehicles emerging. It is growing quickly, with the latest quarter revenue up over 400% as it start to land more commercial customers. I rate the company as a buy.

Shareholder Returns

NNUS SoftwareUS Market
7D2.4%-3.6%0.3%
1Y-70.8%-17.4%-13.5%

Return vs Industry: NN underperformed the US Software industry which returned -17.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NN underperformed the US Market which returned -13% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is NN's price volatile compared to industry and market?
NN volatility
NN Average Weekly Movement14.1%
Software Industry Average Movement10.7%
Market Average Movement7.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market17.2%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.2%

Stable Share Price: NN is more volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 14% a week.

Volatility Over Time: NN's weekly volatility (14%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
200761Ganesh Pattabiramanhttps://www.nextnav.com

NextNav Inc. provides next generation global positioning system (GPS) and 3D geolocation services. The company delivers next generation positioning, navigation, and timing solutions through its network-based Pinnacle and TerraPoiNT solutions. Its Pinnacle 3D geolocation service is commercially available in approximately 4,400 cities and towns in the United States; and its TerraPoiNT terrestrial-based encrypted network has deployments in 51 total markets nationally.

NextNav Fundamentals Summary

How do NextNav's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
NN fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$282.95m
Earnings (TTM)-US$141.14m
Revenue (TTM)US$1.71m

165.4x

P/S Ratio

-2.0x

P/E Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
NN income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$1.71m
Cost of RevenueUS$14.03m
Gross Profit-US$12.32m
Other ExpensesUS$128.82m
Earnings-US$141.14m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 10, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)-1.46
Gross Margin-719.93%
Net Profit Margin-8,248.98%
Debt/Equity Ratio0%

How did NN perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is NN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

NN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue116.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA-4.6x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does NN's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

NN PB Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PB ratio for NN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.1x
EMBK Embark Technology
1x22.6%US$231.3m
IREN Iris Energy
0.7x92.7%US$283.7m
DAVE Dave
1.5xn/aUS$261.7m
EGAN eGain
5.1x-69.4%US$288.9m
NN NextNav
2.9x55.9%US$283.0m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: NN is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (2.9x) compared to the peer average (2.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

Price-To-Book vs Industry: NN is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (2.9x) compared to the US Software industry average (3.9x)


Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NN's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NN PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio2.9x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate NN's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NN ($2.93) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($109.35)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


Discover undervalued companies

Future Growth

How is NextNav forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


55.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NN is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: NN is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: NN is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: NN's revenue (64.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NN's revenue (64.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if NN's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has NextNav performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


22.1%

Last years earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NN is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: NN is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: Insufficient data to determine if NN's year-on-year earnings growth rate was positive over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare NN's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: NN is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Software industry (18.5%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: NN has a negative Return on Equity (-131.33%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is NextNav's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Stable Cash Runway

  • Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: NN's short term assets ($96.7M) exceed its short term liabilities ($9.1M).

Long Term Liabilities: NN's short term assets ($96.7M) exceed its long term liabilities ($30.1M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: NN is debt free.

Reducing Debt: NN had no debt 5 years ago.


Balance Sheet


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: NN has sufficient cash runway for more than a year based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: NN has less than a year of cash runway if free cash flow continues to reduce at historical rates of 37.5% each year


Discover healthy companies

Dividend

What is NextNav current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate NN's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate NN's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if NN's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if NN's dividend payments have been increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as NN has not reported any payouts.


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

0.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Ganesh Pattabiraman (48 yo)

14.83yrs

Tenure

US$8,997,316

Compensation

Mr. Ganesh Pattabiraman has been Chief Executive Officer and Director at Nextnav Inc. since October 2021 and serves as its President since October 2007. Mr. Pattabiraman is Co-Founder of NextNav Inc. Mr. P...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Ganesh's total compensation ($USD9.00M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD1.68M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Ganesh's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: NN's management team is not considered experienced ( 0.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

Experienced Board: NN's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 0.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: NN insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Insufficient data to determine if shareholders have been diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

NextNav Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: NextNav Inc.
  • Ticker: NN
  • Exchange: NasdaqCM
  • Founded: 2007
  • Industry: Application Software
  • Sector: Software
  • Implied Market Cap: US$282.952m
  • Shares outstanding: 96.57m
  • Website: https://www.nextnav.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • NextNav Inc.
  • 1775 Tysons Boulevard
  • 5th Floor
  • McLean
  • Virginia
  • 22102
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/09 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/09 00:00
Earnings2022/03/31
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.