The9 Limited's (NASDAQ:NCTY) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

It's not a stretch to say that The9 Limited's (NASDAQ:NCTY) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 5.7x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" for companies in the Software industry in the United States, where the median P/S ratio is around 5.4x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

See our latest analysis for The9

How The9 Has Been Performing

The9 has been doing a decent job lately as it's been growing revenue at a reasonable pace. It might be that many expect the respectable revenue performance to only match most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for The9, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, The9 would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 2.8%. Pleasingly, revenue has also lifted 40% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 27% shows it's noticeably less attractive.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that The9's P/S is comparable to that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that The9's average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with The9 (at least 1 which is potentially serious), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you're unsure about the strength of The9's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.